17 000-20 000 yuan / ton interval oscillation operation

Affected by the news that the regulatory authorities recently interviewed key enterprises in the black and nonferrous industries, on May 24, the nonferrous plate fell as a whole, and the price of Shanghai aluminum futures fell by more than 3%. The market sentiment was suppressed. Although the recent macro bad news on the commodity market to form a certain pressure, but aluminum fundamentals remain strong. Among them, the social inventory has further declined, the downstream rigid demand has maintained a strong trend, and the supply side favorable factors still exist in the later period. At present, the market inflection point has not appeared, and the favorable factors support the aluminum price, so it is not appropriate to be too pessimistic in the short term.

Macro multi space interweaving

The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has not yet turned, which has a certain support for the commodity market. According to the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, many officials are ready to start to consider adjusting monetary policy, but the employment data depresses the expectation of economic recovery, which is not enough for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in the short term. Among them, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 266000 after the quarterly adjustment in April, far less than the market expectation of increasing by 1 million, and less than the previous value of 916000.

At home, the government has clearly proposed to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities, and comprehensively curb the unreasonable rise of commodity prices. Affected by this bad news, the industrial product market fell sharply. In the short term, the official initiative triggered the market’s expectation of the later policy regulation to rise, and the commodity market sentiment showed signs of cooling down.

Supply side tightening expectations still exist

Since the first quarter, the aluminum supply side has rebounded significantly. According to the latest data, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.35 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% and a month on month growth of 3.9%, while the output in April 2020 only increased by 1.5% year on year. From January to April, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 13.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. It can be seen that with the aluminum industry profits remain high, the upstream supply side shows obvious signs of recovery.

On May 13, the national development and Reform Commission held a video conference to remind some provinces and cities that the energy consumption intensity did not decrease but increased in the first quarter, which raised the expectation that the market would further strengthen the dual control of energy consumption.

According to statistics, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang is about 16.91 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the current domestic production capacity. Among them, Yunnan and Guangxi are the main provinces with new electrolytic aluminum production capacity this year. It is expected that the dual control of energy consumption will delay the upstream production schedule, especially affect the later production schedule of new capacity. In addition, last week’s drought in Yunnan will slow down the production of electrolytic aluminum.

According to ALD’s comprehensive assessment, the current operating capacity of Yunnan Province is 3.92 million tons, which is estimated to be between 600000-780000 tons due to the direct shutdown of the tank from the middle of this month to the end of this month. On the whole, although the high profits of the industry have been stimulating the supply side to pick up, the expectation of supply side disturbance still exists in the later stage, but the influence degree is uncertain.

The effect of traditional peak season is obvious

At present, the downstream construction has maintained a good situation. According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic downstream construction profile enterprises was 62.07% in April and is expected to be 60% in May; 36% in April and 62% in May; The operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises was 81.64% in April and 81% in May; The operating rate of aluminum alloy A356 enterprises in April was 54.51%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.61%. Industry feedback is now in the peak season of aluminum consumption. Although aluminum prices continue to rise, leading to rising cost side, and enterprises have a strong fear of high prices, terminal orders have been relatively full, and there are still many optimists about future prices. As the inflection point of the consumer side has not arrived, rigid demand still exists, short-term aluminum prices should not be pessimistic.

As of May 24, the data showed that the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 990000 tons, 30000 tons lower than last week, which was lower than the level of the same period in recent three years from a seasonal point of view. Since the beginning of April, the decline rate of aluminum ingot inventory shows signs of slowing down. In terms of aluminum bars, the mainstream processing cost of aluminum bars in South China has risen to 780-880 yuan / ton, and the highest price in the market has risen to more than 1000 yuan / ton recently, reflecting the stable demand in the downstream. According to the feedback of profile enterprises, the inventory of raw materials is low and the downstream orders are saturated, but the current high price affects the willingness of enterprises to replenish the warehouse. Once the aluminum price falls, the enterprises will prepare the warehouse.

To sum up, in the near future, there will be some bad news in the macro aspect, but the consumption in the industrial end will maintain stability, and the lower aluminum price will probably stimulate the lower reaches to buy on bargain hunting and lock in the cost. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 17000-20000 yuan / ton from May to June, and downstream enterprises can consider buying on the cheap to lock in the cost（ Author’s unit: China CITIC construction investment Futures Co., Ltd

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of bromine is running at a high level. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 42125 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 43125 yuan / ton, up 2.37% and 44.82% compared with the same period last year. On May 27, the bromine commodity index was 149.56, up 0.88 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 153.84% from 58.92 points on October 29, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine level is high and firm, and the current mainstream price of enterprises is about 43000-45000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is relatively strong as a whole. The bromine market in Shandong Province is in short supply. The bromine enterprises have not started operation for a long time. The bromine production growth is relatively slow. The overall market supply is tight. The downstream flame retardants and intermediates procurement are acceptable, which supports the bromine price. Most bromine manufacturers have the intention to support the price, and the low price is hard to find.

Raw materials: the domestic sulfur market runs smoothly, and refineries in various regions offer stable prices according to their own shipment situation. Domestic individual refinery maintenance, regional refinery inventory is low, downstream traders enter the market to purchase on demand, external price is strong. The performance of downstream phosphate fertilizer is stable, there is no intention of low price shipment in the spot market, and the trend is good, which has a good support for the sulfur market. It is expected that the sulfur market will run smoothly in the future, and attention will be paid to the follow-up situation of downstream.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the overall supply of bromine is insufficient. Now the bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries just need support. Bromine enterprises are relatively smooth in shipment, the focus of transaction is moving up, and the low price is hard to find. It is expected that the bromine price will be high and firm in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 27, the average price of PMMA, a domestic general transparent high-grade product, was 17233.33 yuan / ton, and the market remained weak and stable. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 17000 yuan / ton. The negotiation center was stable, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The transaction atmosphere was light, and the stable trend was maintained in the short term.

The price of MMA in the upstream fell, the demand follow-up was insufficient, and the merchants actively shipped. At present, the inventory is normal and there is no pressure, and the actual transaction volume is limited. The chemical industry index was 1047 points on May 26, down 3 points from yesterday, down 3.41% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 75.08% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

PMMA analysts of business news agency believe that: upstream downward trend, insufficient cost support, general downstream demand, flat negotiation atmosphere, and stable operation of PMMA price in the short term（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of May 25, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16800 yuan / ton, up 1.2% from the beginning of this month and 15.86% from the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of May 25, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 22933.33 yuan / ton, up 1.47% from the beginning of the month and 12.79% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of refrigerant R22 rose slightly in May. In the first half of the month, the price trend was relatively stable. In the second half of the month, driven by the rising price of raw material methane chloride, the quotation of enterprises increased steadily. Near the end of the month, the number of enterprises increased and the market center moved up. With the increase of temperature, the downstream demand has increased to a certain extent, but due to the influence of environmental protection policies and other factors, the demand has not increased significantly, so it is difficult to support the sharp rise of R22 price. As of the 25th, R22 market quotation was mainly in the range of 15600-17500 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation was about 16800-17500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation was about 15600-16800 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation was about 15800-16300 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation was about 16500 yuan / ton, Shanxi quotation was about 17000 yuan / ton, and prices in various regions were stable and rising.

In May, refrigerant R134a market was generally stable, with some rising., The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fell, but the trichloroethylene market heard that the price continued to rise, the cost side support was strong, the R134a market was strong, the current demand for vehicles was relatively stable, the offer of goods holders was high, and the trading center moved up. At present, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 23000-23500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu quotation is about 23500-25000 yuan / ton, Shanxi quotation is about 24500 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 24000 yuan / ton, the price center of each region moves up.

In terms of raw materials, on May 25, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 9400-9800 yuan / ton, and the factory price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was normal, and the supply of goods in the yard was stable. Affected by the high price of fluorite, the market of downstream refrigerants was temporarily stable in the near future, and mainly purchased on demand in the yard. It is expected that the price in the yard will decline slightly in the later stage.

Trichloromethane, on May 25, the market of methane chloride in Shandong was sorted out, and the quotation of manufacturers was adjusted. The main factory quotation of dichloromethane was about 4050 ~ 4060 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation of trichloromethane was about 4170 ~ 4250 yuan / ton. The downstream made a small number of inquiries and received orders according to the demand.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerant analysts of business news agency believe that the current rise in raw material prices supports the rise in refrigerant prices. With the increase in temperature, the downstream demand has increased to a certain extent, and the support is fair. It is expected that R22 and R134a will still be strong in the short term, and there is no lack of upward expectations.

On May 25, the sulfur commodity index was 85.78, up 0.73 points from yesterday, down 17.39% from 103.84 points (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 232.61% from 25.79 points, the lowest point on February 24, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China was 1563.33 yuan / ton, up 0.86%. Refineries in various regions of China adjusted their prices according to their own shipment situation. The quotations of solid and liquid sulfur were all increased, with different increases in different regions. The overall sulfur market was strong and upward. Sinopec increased solid and liquid sulfur by 20 yuan / ton in North China; The price of liquid sulfur in Shandong increased by 20-30 yuan / ton; The price of liquid sulfur in East China was increased by 50 yuan / ton. The rise and fall of solid sulfur prices in various regions are as follows:

region varieties May 24th May 25th Up and down

East China Sulfur (particle) 1600-1660 yuan / ton 1640-1700 yuan / ton forty

North China Sulfur (particle) 1460-1530 yuan / ton 1480-1550 yuan / ton twenty

Shandong Province Sulfur (particle) 1500-1550 yuan / ton 1500-1550 yuan / ton 0

In terms of sulphuric acid, the domestic market is differentiated, the price in Shandong is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the market trading is weak. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the market demand was stable, the export order of Monoammonium was good, and the domestic demand was weak. Last week, the operating rate of enterprises decreased and the market price rose; The domestic market of diammonium is weak and stable, the demand is general, and the support for sulfur is weak.

Future forecast: at present, the price of domestic sulfur market is strong, domestic refineries maintain low inventory operation, and individual refineries overhaul, the attitude of on-site shippers is good, and sulfur enterprises ship smoothly. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be stable and wait-and-see.

1、 Price trend

According to the data on the big list of business agencies, toluene prices rose first and then fell this week, and overall, they fell from last week. On May 16, the price of toluene was 5986.2 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (May 23) was 5926 yuan / ton, down 60.2 yuan / ton, or 0.5% from last week; It was 65.55 per cent higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The prophase good news is not supported enough, downstream demand is still weak, toluene prices rose first and then fell this week. On the external market, the European aromatics unit was restarted and supply increased, which led to the decline of the Asian external market. As of May 21, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was 767 USD / T, up 2 USD / T, or 0.26% in the week, compared with May 14; The price of toluene imported from East China was US $789 / T, up $1 / T, or 0.13% in the week, on May 14.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose first and then fell continuously during the week. In the early stage, driven by the optimistic prospect of demand recovery in Europe and the United States, international oil prices rose; However, we heard that the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have made progress, and the market is worried about the supply of crude oil or the increase of bad oil price, so the oil price turns down. Compared with May 14, Brent fell by $2.15/barrel, or 3.11%; WTI fell $1.78 per barrel, or 2.72%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI prices in East China are continuous, with domestic products of 14000 yuan / ton, down 3.67% from last week, up 27.27% compared with the same period last year. Domestic market is weak operation, market offer is low, the mentality of the industry is short, the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment is weak, downstream inquiry is low, the shipment is not smooth, TDI market is rigid and tidy.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price this week remained stable, with the price of 6400 yuan / ton, 60% year-on-year. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market. As of May 21, the closing prices in Asia were US $814-816 / T FOB Korea and US $832-834 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The recent nuclear discussions in the United States and Iran may be negative for oil prices. The crude oil market is full of uncertainty and may decline in the short term. The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, toluene is still weak in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, the maintenance of toluene plant, the arrival volume of toluene in the later period and the influence of downstream demand on the price of toluene

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 yuan / ton, which remained flat compared with the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 60%. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable this week.

In recent years, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, and the Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, some overseas plants are still under maintenance, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high due to the impact. As of the 20th, the closing prices in Asia were 827-829 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 845-847 US dollars / ton CFR China. The operating rate of PX unit in Asia has not changed much recently. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia is general, and the closing price of PX unit in Asia is declining, The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

This week, the trend of crude oil price dropped sharply, and the international oil price continued to drop for three consecutive days. The settlement price of the main contract in WTI crude oil futures market of the United States is at US $61.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market is at US $65.11/barrel, The epidemic situation in India has slowed down the pace of demand recovery. Crude oil prices fell sharply this week, while domestic petrochemical products prices of likong were affected, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

This week, the price trend of downstream PTA market continued to decline, and domestic PTA spot market fell. As of the 21st, the average price of PTA market was 4600-4650 yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.37% this week. The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the cost support was poor. Recently, the PTA plant has been overhauled and restarted, and the supply side has increased. This week, the PTA operation rate is about 85%. The PTA delivery situation is general, and the price is high. Polyester production and sales fell again, European and American epidemic counterattack and Xinjiang cotton products export pressure is still large, follow-up orders weak. The profits of domestic textile industry are concentrated in the spinning process. The lower reaches of the textile industry do not have a high acceptance of the fabric price rise, and the price transmission is not smooth. There is downward pressure on the yarn price, which may further affect the price performance of the raw material end. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is a certain uncertainty in the current cost side, the short-term crude oil price has a downward trend, and the downstream PTA and textile market has a downward trend. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will be stable in the later period, but there is no lack of possibility of a downward trend.

Since May, the overall trend of propane market has been weak, with Shandong propane Market falling most obviously, and the recent price has been declining continuously. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of propane Market in Shandong Province was 4440.75 yuan / ton on May 13 and 4293.25 yuan / ton on May 19, with a decrease of 3.32% during the period and 4.93% compared with April 1.

As of May 19, the mainstream propane prices in different regions of China are as follows:

region Specifications May 19th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4100-4400 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4400-4500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4200-4350 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4000-4050 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4500-4510 yuan / ton

In fact, after entering the middle of April, the propane market began to decline. Recently, the market was dominated by negative factors, and the price was weakening one after another, especially in Shandong market. In the international market, with the introduction of Saudi Aramco CP in May, there was a sharp drop in the cost of imported gas and a bad market attitude. In terms of international crude oil, the support to the market brought by the recent volatile decline of international crude oil is limited. On the demand side, with the rising weather and temperature, terminal consumption slows down, the replenishment cycle of downstream is extended, and the attitude is more cautious, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is general. The northern market upstream shipment blocked, inventory gradually increased, successive downward price yield shipment. At present, the transaction atmosphere of southern market is relatively mild, and most of them are stable.

In the international crude oil market, on May 19, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $63.35/barrel, down by US $2.15 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $66.66/barrel, down by US $2.05 or 3.0%. Although the US EIA inventory data released last week on Wednesday was positive, the growth of crude oil inventory was not as expected, and gasoline inventory decreased more than expected. However, oil prices fell by more than 3% on concerns that the surge in new cases in Asia will further depress demand for crude oil and that US inflation will increase the probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in May that all propane and butane were reduced. Propane was 495 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with last month; Butane is 475 US dollars / ton, down 55 US dollars / ton from last month.

At present, there are many negative factors in the market. The price of propane in Shandong has dropped to about 4300 yuan / ton. With the price decreasing, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has not improved significantly. In the later stage, the temperature continues to rise, the terminal demand is still expected to weaken, and the current upstream inventory pressure is increasing, so it is expected that the propane market price will still weaken in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 19, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4716.67 yuan / ton. The manufacturers were active in shipping, the upstream support was general, the downstream just needed to purchase, the operating rate was normal, the negotiation atmosphere was flat, the mainstream price range was 4000-5000 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable overall trend with stable price. The main contract orders are the main ones, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is flat. The number of new orders is limited. Most of the new orders are mainly discussed. The merchants have a stable mentality and general negotiation atmosphere. The merchants are cautious in taking the goods and slow in shipping. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, the shipping is normal, and the inventory is general.

Chemical industry index: on May 18, the chemical industry index was 1068 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 1.48% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 78.60% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

According to the silica analysts of business news agency, the downstream demand power is insufficient, and the rising trend information is not obvious. In the short term, the domestic silica market price is stable, the inventory is normal, the main supply is contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited（ If you want to know more about the industry chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get the information and grasp the price.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 5866 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable.

2、 Market analysis

On May 11, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax is 5700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 6200 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last time. Paraformaldehyde market is fair, mainly used in pesticide resin. Boosted by the rise of raw material methanol, some manufacturers increased the quotation of paraformaldehyde.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 13, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2680 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 13.80% and a year-on-year increase of 54.91%. The spot market of methanol is also rising. The main production areas in Northwest China drive the spot price of methanol in other regions to continue to rise. The supply and demand of raw coal is tight, which promotes the cost of coal to methanol.

3、 Future forecast

Methanol rose, business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect polyoxymethylene or will rise.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (May 17): 2273.33 yuan / ton

On May 17, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 30 yuan / ton, or 1.34%, compared with the quotation on May 14. The prices of upstream natural gas and coal have risen sharply recently, with good cost support. Demand side: the agricultural demand in various regions has been carried out in succession; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, most of them were used as they were mined, and the manufacturers had less inventory. Supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price on February 28 was about 576.75 yuan / ton, and on May 13 was about 997.5 yuan / ton, up 72.95% and 110.67% over the same period last year. On May 13, the steam coal commodity index was 120.18, up 2.41 points from yesterday, down 3.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 168.86% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In March, the price of steam coal began to rise. First, the safety inspection of the main production areas at the supply side was strengthened, and the super capacity production was strictly restricted. The shortage of coal management tickets restricted the supply. The mining areas in Shaanxi maintain a low inventory state, and the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance due to the coal management ticket in Inner Mongolia increases and the supply decreases. At the end of the month, the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance increased, and the overall mine inventory was small. Platforms and traders have high purchasing enthusiasm, and coal is in a tight state. Second, the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas picked up, and the inventory maintained a slow decline. However, the industrial power consumption is dominant and the daily consumption is high. Some data show that the number of days of coal inventory available in the national key power plants is about 14 days. Downstream trading atmosphere is relatively strong, power plants also began to accept high price coal, receiving goods is also more positive than before, transaction increased.

After May Day, the average market price of steam coal was 826.25 yuan / ton on May 1 and 997.5 yuan / ton on May 13, with a rise of 20.73% in half a month. During the May Day festival, the main producing areas of steam coal basically maintained a stable state, and the pit sales were in good condition. The coal price in Ordos, Inner Mongolia was temporarily stable. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the coal supply was generally in a tight state. Downstream power plants: in terms of power plants, the coal inventory of power plants is at a low level. Some data show that as of May 12, the six major coastal power plants have a total inventory of 13.342 million tons, daily consumption of 698000 tons, and available days of 19.1 days. In May, power plants are willing to replenish their stocks. Traders are reluctant to sell at high prices and optimistic about the future. At present, port traders are still reluctant to sell and have a strong attitude of supporting prices. Port prices are relatively strong and market sentiment is relatively high as a whole.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal in the producing area is in a tight state. After the May Day holiday, there is no obvious increase in the storage of coal in the downstream power plants, and there is still a demand for replenishing the storage. And the peak summer is coming, so there is still a strong demand for replenishing the storage of thermal coal, which is supported by thermal coal. Moreover, the market sentiment is relatively hot, and traders are more optimistic about the later period. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is still relatively strong, and the demand of downstream market is more specific.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 906 yuan / ton on May 10 and 906 yuan / ton on May 14, which was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate was stable, and the market demand for ammonium sulfate increased. By the end of the week, the mainstream ex factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was 830-870 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 780-820 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 740-780 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast was 700-800 yuan / ton. The domestic ammonium sulfate Market is stable, new orders increase, and the market trend is good.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer continued to consolidate stage, the market remained stable. Compound fertilizer raw material prices are still high, in the cost price support, compound fertilizer market is strong. Due to the cost pressure, compound fertilizer continued to consolidate at a high level in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business community ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate Market see good, the new single increased. Downstream just need to purchase, go goods smoothly. The market of domestic ammonium sulfate is stable, the supply of goods is tight, and the trading volume is good. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will be in stable operation at high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the chlor alkali plate rose as a whole after May 1st. The prices of products in each industry are as follows:

commodity , Price on May 1 , Price on May 12 , Company , Up and down

PVC , 8962.5, 9250, Yuan / ton , 3.21%

Calcium carbide, four thousand five hundred and fifty , four thousand six hundred and eighty-three point three three Yuan / ton, 2.93%

Light soda,, one thousand seven hundred and fifty-two , 1760, Yuan / ton , 0.46%

Caustic soda, 457.5, 457.5, Yuan / ton , 0

hydrochloric acid , two hundred and twenty-six point six seven , 226.67, Yuan / ton, 0

From the above figure, PVC price rose 3.21%, calcium carbide rose 2.93% and soda ash increased by 0.46%. Today, we will take a stock of the chlorine alkali products with better price rise.

First, we will look at the calcium carbide: on May 1, the average price of the Northwest market of calcium carbide was 4550 yuan / ton, and the average price of Northwest calcium carbide Market on May 12 was 4683.33 yuan / ton, and the price rose 2.93%. The reason for the price increase is that the raw material, orchid carbon, has been greatly increased, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. Downstream PVC market also rose slightly in the near future, downstream customers are more active in calcium carbide procurement. The future market expects the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China, low price consolidation of upstream orchid carbon and high consolidation of PVC market in the downstream. The enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement is general, or small shocks will be sorted out.

Next, we will see PVC: May 1 holiday returns, PVC futures market is open, prices rise strongly, driving the spot trend direction. The trading quotient also rose, and the market overall focus shifted upward. Recently, the price of raw materials calcium carbide has increased, and the cost side support is stronger. In May, the number of maintenance enterprises increased, the market supply is tight, and the price of PVC is up. At present, the export side has weakened, but the domestic market is relatively stable. The quotation of downstream products industry also increases with the rising of raw material market. However, the acceptance of high price PVC is still low, the market transaction is light, and the purchase needs to be maintained and replenishment is bargain hunting.

From the above figure of the industrial chain, the upstream coke price rose 12.84%, calcium carbide rose 2.93% and PVC price increased by 3.21%. The near future profit of the downstream steel plant of coke is high, the starting rate of the steel plant is high, the demand for coke is good, the coke inventory in the plant is low, and there is obvious demand for replenishment. And on November, coking enterprises rose in the sixth round. Upstream prices rose, and calcium carbide prices followed. PVC price has demand side support, and in May, the number of maintenance enterprises increased, the source of goods decreased, and the PVC price also followed up.

Soda: the total stock of soda is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Now, the soda is mainly executed in the early stage, the demand side is relatively stable, the downstream normal procurement, and the enterprise actively delivers the main. From the upstream and downstream: upstream and demand: upstream: the national salt market is stable mainly, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and downstream mainly purchase on demand, and it is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable to sort out the operation market. The price of glass in downstream rises, which supports the price of soda, or drives the demand for soda. But downstream glass is in a wait-and-see state for high price alkali, and the acceptance is not high, so the buyer and the seller still start price game.

Business analysts believe: upstream orchid carbon prices low consolidation, downstream PVC market high consolidation, the general enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will be consolidated in the later period. At present, the new maintenance enterprises in May are still few, and most of them are routine maintenance, and the parking time is short, and the impact on supply is limited, so PVC can not continue to go higher. In addition, high price raw materials inhibit demand release, export resistance rise also pressure spot trend, short-term PVC market or continue high volatility. Domestic soda is stable and small. Downstream glass mainly purchases soda on demand, and has a conflict with high price soda. In a comprehensive view, the short-term price of soda continued to be consolidated. In general, the overall consolidation operation of the price of chlor alkali plate is mainly in the later stage.

The domestic ethanol market is low, and the performance of each region is slightly different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of May 12, the domestic ethanol market price was 6620 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.23% and a year-on-year increase of 14.88%.

There are some differences in domestic ethanol market consolidation among different regions: Northeast, East China and Henan; The ethanol market in Dongguan is up, and the port quotation is stable; The ethanol market in Guangxi is up; The ethanol market in Yunnan is stable; Sichuan Baijiu market outlook, liquor demand in the off-season, the market turnover was light.

In terms of raw materials, the price of corn fluctuated and rebounded. Factors such as the rise of internal and external corn depots, some deep processing to supplement the depots, the weakening willingness of grain holders to sell grain, and the policy to stop shooting wheat boosted the market’s bullish sentiment. In May, China’s breeding and feeding corn will continue to grow. In the first half of the month, the breeding market is in the transition stage from off-season to peak season, and the growth rate of corn demand is slow. In the second half of the month, the peak season of demand is gradually approaching, and the contradiction of corn supply shortage is gradually highlighted. Downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate market continued to be weak. The price of acetic acid on raw material side dropped sharply, ethyl acetate itself had no power, and the downstream terminals were mainly rational about the purchase of ethyl acetate, the new orders in the market were insufficient, and the market passively followed the trend of raw material side weakening. The start-up of ethyl acetate industry is stable, the market spot supply is sufficient, the trend of raw material side continues to be weak, and ethyl acetate continues to follow the weak trend passively.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7500-7600 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol 6850 yuan / ton

Yunnan Province Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6350 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6450 yuan / ton including tax

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Cassava alcohol 6700 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7500 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province General level 6450-6550 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6700-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6650-6700 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 7400-7450 yuan / ton

Henan Province Top grade 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 8100-8150 yuan / ton

Some large plants in Northeast China have been overhauling and lightening the load, while others have been gradually feeding. The overall market supply has increased. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

From May 6 to 8, 2021, the crude benzene market price was temporarily stable. This week, the price adjustment of most manufacturers was stranded. The bidding price of 29 days before the festival was still implemented, and the prices of some manufacturers in 10 days of the cycle changed.

In May 2021, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was raised once. At present, the price is 7700 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7650 yuan / ton.

Since the end of April, the external price of pure benzene has risen sharply, and the crude oil price has been consolidated at a high level in the same period. Supported by favorable fundamentals, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene once before the festival, and the price rose again on the first day after the festival, with a total increase of 400 yuan / ton. The domestic pure benzene industry chain has a strong bullish atmosphere, downstream styrene and other markets are also strong operation, and the positive support of upstream and downstream is obvious. After the festival, the price of pure benzene is the main trend in hydrobenzene market. At present, the unit operation rate is at a normal level, and the demand for crude benzene is relatively stable.

In the future, the business community believes that there are many favorable factors in the fundamentals at present, and the downstream demand is temporarily stable. It is expected that driven by the rising price of the industrial chain, there will be upward space in the future.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the ABS market generally rose in April and then recovered, with different brands of products rising or falling. As of May 1, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18375 yuan / ton, which was 0.41% higher than the average price in early April and 72.54% higher than that in the same period of last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw materials, styrene has been up since April. April market to undertake at the end of March, enterprise equipment maintenance, terminal replenishment volume. Inflation at the macro level and the favorable domestic demand expectation also affect the market. Many factors have stabilized the market of styrene. At the end of the month, the centralized maintenance was basically completed, the domestic supply recovered obviously, but the port cargo inventory position was low, and the on-site supply was still tight. Upstream pure benzene continued to rise, styrene cost side support is stable, it is expected that the trend will be positive in the short term.

As for butadiene, the domestic butadiene market was mainly volatile in April. The shutdown and maintenance of Fushun Petrochemical Plant boosted the business’s expectation of supply and demand in the small area, but it is still difficult to pull the butadiene market. The prices of Sinopec and some suppliers increased slightly, and some units were shut down during the month. The butadiene market operation rate was once less than 60%. However, the market inventory digestion was slow, the supply continued to be under pressure, the supply in circulation was abundant, and there were many low price transactions, which dragged the butadiene market to a weak downward trend after a short-term shock. The strong external market operation boosted domestic exports in May. Recently, the short-term load of butadiene industry decreased, which promoted the de inventory. The downstream rubber market is weak and the inventory is under pressure, and the new production capacity is expected to be released. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

In April, the ABS cost side market fluctuated, which generally supported the ABS spot price. The first half of last month to undertake the demand of home appliance industry market, boost the spot price. However, the sustained high operating rate of petrochemical enterprises leads to the increasing supply situation in the field. With the further abundant supply of goods in the market, the market competition is strengthened. In the middle of the month, the ABS market quickly recovered and fell below the average price at the beginning of the month. In the second half of the month, there was a small peak of goods preparation before the festival to ease the contradiction between supply and demand and stabilize the ABS fundamentals. At the end of the month, when the terminal stock is completed, the spot price position is still high, and the downstream resistance is strong.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS market rose in April after the fall, the price position of the basic return to the level at the beginning of the month. The trend of raw materials is different, and the support for ABS cost is acceptable. According to the business news agency, one of the main factors affecting the market in April is the continuous high opening rate, which broke the shortage situation in the early stage. At the same time, the abundant supply also strengthened the competition in the market. On the other hand, the end-users maintain high cost pressure, and the procurement operation tends to be rigid demand. On the floor buyers’ resistance weakens trading momentum. In the near future, the domestic ABS supply situation will continue, and it is expected that the spot price will maintain the horizontal consolidation operation, which does not rule out the possibility of a downward adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average port price of steam coal was about 830 yuan / ton on May 6, and 882.5 yuan / ton on May 7, with a single day increase of 6.33%. On May 6, the steam coal commodity index was 100.00, up 0.45 points from yesterday, down 20.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 123.71% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, during the May Day festival, the main production area of steam coal basically maintained a stable state, the pit sales were good, and the coal price in Ordos area of Inner Mongolia temporarily stabilized, but due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the coal supply was generally in a tight state.

Downstream power plants: in terms of power plants, the coal inventory of power plants is at a low level, and the peak summer is coming. In May, power plants have a strong desire to replenish the stock, and traders are reluctant to sell at high prices, so they are optimistic about the future market. After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway line, the volume of the north port transfer increased significantly, and the amount of transfer was increased by about 300 thousand tons during the maintenance period. But the Bohai Rim port inventory is at a low level. Data show that as of April 30, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.42 million tons, down 115000 tons from March 31.

Macro: the overall release of raw coal is not as expected. On April 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in March, China produced 340.76 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, an increase of 9.4% over March 2019, an average increase of 4.6% in two years, and an average daily output of 10.99 million tons; The imported coal was 27.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. In the first quarter, China produced 970.56 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, an increase of 15.4% over the first quarter of 2019, and an average increase of 7.4% in two years; The import of coal was 68.46 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%.

Analysts from business news agency believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal in the producing area is in a tight state, and the downstream power plants have inventory demand, and the demand for thermal coal is good. And the peak summer is coming, there is still a strong demand for thermal coal replenishment, and the market sentiment is hot. Traders are reluctant to sell at the price, and they are optimistic about the later period as a whole. On the whole, thermal coal is mainly in strong operation, See the downstream market demand specifically.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On April 29, the price was $1158.50/ton, and on April 30, the average price of ethylene was $1159.00/ton, up 0.04%. The current price has increased by 2.75% month on month, and the current price has increased by 227.63% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a slight upward trend. The price of ethylene market in Asia was stable. As of the 29th, CFR closed at US $1102-1110 / T in Northeast Asia and US $1047-1055 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 29th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1260-1273 / T and CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1210-1221 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 29th, the price is US $1140-1152 / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia is generally stable and rising, mainly due to slight fluctuations in Europe. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market is acceptable, with a slight rise in the market.

International: on April 29, international oil prices rose significantly, with the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market at US $65.01/barrel, up US $1.15 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $68.56/barrel, up US $1.27 or 1.9%, mainly due to the strong performance of US economic data and the weakness of US dollar, and the expectation of demand recovery outweighed the market’s worry about the epidemic situation in India and other places.

The recent volatility of styrene in East China market has fallen, because with the end of replenishment at the end of the month, the follow-up of styrene high price spot is weak, in addition, the futures adjustment is accelerated, the expectation is gradually realized, and the downstream is cautious and wait-and-see. GPPS suffered a serious loss, EPS suffered a small loss, and some downstream companies reduced production and sold raw materials; In addition, the maintenance plan of some domestic and South Korean units was delayed in May, and Huatai and SINOCHEM Hongrun planned to put into production, etc., resulting in loose supply in the far end of the market. In the short term, the market atmosphere weakened and styrene showed a downward trend.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, the US economic data strongly supports the market atmosphere, the market is optimistic about the global demand for crude oil, and the cost support is strong, so the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

Spot precious metal prices were weak during the year, and prices rebounded in April

According to business news agency data, on April 30, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5321.67 yuan / kg, up 2.22% in the day, up 5.51% compared with the average price of 5061 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 4.11%.

On April 30, the spot price of gold was 369 yuan / g, down 1.2% within the day, up 1.55% compared with the average price of 363.35 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (4.1); The spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), down 6.04%.

Strong domestic gold consumption in the first quarter

According to WGC data, China’s consumer demand for gold increased to 286.4 tons in the first quarter of 2021, in sharp contrast to the trend of global demand for gold falling to a 13 year low. China is the largest gold consumer in the world.

Among them, more than half of China’s gold demand comes from jewelry. Jewelry demand for gold reached 191.1 tons in the first quarter, the highest level since 2015.

Domestic gold production fell in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2021, the domestic raw material gold output was 74.44 tons, 8.19 tons lower than that in the same period of 2020, 9.92% lower than that in the same period of 2020, including 58.91 tons of gold mineral gold and 15.53 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold. Together with the gold production of imported raw materials in the first quarter, the total gold production in China was 98.43 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.39%.

Gold imports rose slightly in the first quarter

In the first quarter, the supply of imported gold raw materials increased steadily, and the gold production of imported raw materials was 23.99 tons, up 1.41% year on year.

Gold price stops falling in April

The sharp fall of gold in the early stage is mainly due to the high yield of us long-term treasury bonds, the continuous rise of US stock market, the positive trend of international commodities, and the weakening of speculative enthusiasm of precious metal market. In April, the price of precious metal gold began to stop falling, stabilized and recovered slightly.

Periodic warming is mainly based on two factors

First, the domestic precious metal consumer market is hot, the gold price has doubled, the market has been cut, and the demand for physical consumption has soared.

Second, in the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase. Precious metals have the power to recover.