I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province on August 27 was 4866 yuan/ton, and the price continued to be stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800-4900 yuan/ton with tax, which is stable. Nanjing Qianrui Chemical Co., Ltd. quotes 4200 yuan/ton of polyformaldehyde (92) with tax. Affected by environmental protection inspection factors in recent years, the factory started work abnormally and intermittently, and the quotation of the factory is still firm.

Industry chain: The price of methanol on August 27 is basically stable, and the downstream demand of polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

Polyformaldehyde analysts believe that due to the impact of environmental inspections, inventory is not much, in the short term, the market of polyformaldehyde will continue to maintain stable operation.

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price declined this week, the price at the end of the week was 11,150 yuan/ton, down 2.45% from 11,430 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and up 3.16% from the same period last year.

Products: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined this week, the situation of manufacturers in the field has not improved significantly in the near future, the starting rate of downstream refrigerant industry remains low, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high starting rate, the domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers are downgraded from the factory. Price, by the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, while in the northern market, the price of hydrofluoric acid is 10,500-11,500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower, the demand of refrigerant industry downstream is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was around 10 000-11 000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 10 500-11 000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was between 10 000-11 000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid declined.

Industry chain: The price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased this week. The factory price of fluorite was 3062.5 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The fluorite price dropped by 0.41% this week. The domestic fluorite supply is normal, but the price of fluorite has a downward trend. The downstream cost price has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic refrigerant R134a market demand is low and prices continue to decline. On the supply side, the production enterprises have started construction steadily and the supply of goods in the market is stable. On the demand side, downstream demand is more weak, manufacturers are forced to ship under pressure, so profit delivery phenomenon is obvious, but the on-site transaction market is general, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream demand only declines, downstream demand is not good, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid declines. Aluminum fluoride price trend of downstream products is temporarily stable in the near future, which is 10 333.33 yuan per ton at the weekend. The price trend is temporarily stable. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining due to the poor market.

Industry: This week, the spot supply of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market is normal, and the trading market of refrigerant industry in the downstream market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate has maintained a low level, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the raw material market price has a downward trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower next week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be between 108,000 and 11,000 yuan/ton. About.

Price Trend

According to the number. This week, the average price of urea mainstream manufacturers increased from 1818.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1828.33 yuan/ton on August 21, up 10 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. After two days, the price fell to 1818.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 7.49% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose first and then fell this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.57 on August 23.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1755 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quotation first rose from 1780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1810 yuan/ton on August 21, up by 30 yuan/ton, the price persisted two days later fell to 1800 yuan/ton at the weekend, overall, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation increased by 20 yuan/ton; Minghua Chemical Weekend quotation 1900 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 20 yuan / ton, to the price 10 days ago. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by previous environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: The upstream products have risen on the whole, but the increase is not significant. The price of natural gas has risen from 3003.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3090.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.89%, but a decrease of 16.96% compared with the previous year. The price of liquid ammonia has risen from 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.31%, an increase of 1.44% compared with the previous year. Urea cost support is strong, downstream purchasing capacity of melamine is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness is greatly reduced. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up costs are gradually increasing, which makes the price of urea market difficult to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late August.

Price trends:

On August 23, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 56.48, up 1.11 points from yesterday, down 44.63% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 26.75% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic hydrobenzene market fell this week (8.19-8.23). The average domestic market price was 4883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 516.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 4.78%.

Domestic market: This week, market favorable factors are concentrated, pure benzene external market has risen one after another, crude benzol prices in the upstream have risen significantly, with a weekly increase of about 500 yuan/ton. In recent years, the price difference between crude benzene and hydrobenzene is obvious, and profits have increased. Hydrobenzene enterprises have started construction more actively. As of Friday, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong rose to 5100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week. Eastern China rose to 5200 yuan per ton and 100 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: International oil prices rose first and then fell this week. Overall, compared with last Friday, Brent rose by 2.9%, WTI rose by 1.62%. Oil prices rose as global stock markets rebounded and geopolitical tensions intensified. Oil prices stopped rising and fell because of uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate cut prospects. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the week, due to the supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, pure benzene in Korea was arbitraged to the United States. The high price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar plate supported the rise of domestic pure benzene price. On Thursday, the supply of pure benzene in eastern China was tight. Pure benzene companies in Shandong sent their supplies to Eastern China, and the prices of refined pure benzene in Shandong rose.

3. Trend forecast:

Recently, coking enterprises started relatively stable, at about 70%, the pressure of environmental protection is still high near the National Day. It is difficult for coking enterprises to rebound greatly. The crude benzene supply is still tight, but the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected that the future growth space of crude benzene industry chain is limited, and the high level of hydrobenzene consolidation.

Price Trend

The domestic xylene market rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.86%, due to the support of downstream demand, according to a large number of business associations.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by downstream demand support, xylene market rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5900-5950 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the turnover has improved slightly this week. Compared with last week, the port stock has dropped by nearly 8,000 tons, and now it is about 52,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by long-term and short-term Treasury bond interest rate upside-down signals fearing the impact of the U.S. recession, and Trump’s impact on China’s $300 billion trade postponement, reduction and exemption and tariff increase, jumped sharply this week compared with last week, with a larger fluctuation, but overall stable, spot Brent rose slightly by 0.02%, Brent futures fell by 0.27%, WTI. Futures rose 0.09%, Dubai futures rose 2.66%.

Downstream, PX market, external prices rose slightly, domestic PX price trend is stable, short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. PTA market, affected by downstream polyester rework, demand is expected to turn better, PTA is expected to rebound slightly in the short term. On the OX market, external quotation fell, downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer market fell under pressure, and short-term trend of o-phenyl is expected to be negative.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the situation in the Middle East, the United States and Iraq, and the follow-up progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. The European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Overall, the toluene market is expected to continue to shake slightly next Tuesday.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been declining continuously in recent days. The average price of enterprises on Friday (August 16) was 7741 yuan/ton. Today (August 19) it has dropped to 7435 yuan/ton. The four-day decline has again reached 3.95%. This is the second half-week dive in propylene market since August, exceeding 3%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declined continuously from 5 days to 8 days, declined 450-500 yuan/ton, rebounded on 10 days, rose 200 yuan/ton on 14 days, stabilized on 15 days, declined sharply on 17 days, and went 300 yuan/ton on three days. At present, the market turnover is about 7400-7650 yuan/ton. The mainstream price is about 7400 yuan/ton. Affected by typhoon recently, loading of some upstream and downstream enterprises in Shandong Province was blocked last week and the turnover was low. Now most of them have returned to normal, and the volume of propylene shipments has increased. Propylene supply in Shandong is abundant due to the continuous supply of Northeast China’s large factories.

Industry chain: In the upstream, international crude oil rose sharply last week and then fell sharply. Although there was a slight recovery in the later period, market expectations were not satisfactory, which had a negative impact on propylene. On the downstream side, the recent polypropylene futures market is relatively depressed, which has little impact on propylene. Recent sharp fall in propylene prices has made downstream factories more cautious in purchasing, mainly in need, and refinery shipment pressure continues to rise, which has warmed up the mood of profit and expenditure.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that in general, international crude oil is not ideal in the near future. Spot prices in PP period are relatively cold. Loading of enterprises has resumed and shipments have increased. The supply of Northeast China’s large factories has made Shandong’s propylene supply more abundant. Prices have fallen sharply, and downstream purchases are just needed. Propylene prices are expected to continue to fall in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene oxide has risen this week. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China is 10400-11050 yuan/ton, which is 3.23% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 8.31% higher than that on August 1.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Propylene oxide market prices rose this week. Affected by typhoons and rainstorms, some propylene oxide plants are downloaded, parked, low inventory, no pressure on manufacturers to move goods, mainstream factory prices are firm, quotations are mostly raised, and market intentions are obvious. The cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10750 yuan/ton on 16th, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 11050 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 10750 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10500 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in North China is around 10400 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory.

Industry Chain: The market price of propylene in Shandong upstream rose this week. Prices of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declining continuously from 5 to 8 days, totaling 450-500 yuan/ton, rising from 14 days to 14 days, and stabilizing from 15 days. Currently, the market turnover is about 7650-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton. Downstream polyether market to digest high-priced raw materials is still weak, propylene oxide is mostly just needed to purchase, digestion inventory is the main.

3. Future market forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that rising propylene prices in the upstream have a certain cost support for propylene oxide, and narrowing supply side is an important factor in the rise of propylene oxide, but downstream factories are under pressure to purchase, and terminal demand is weak to follow up. It is expected that the market of propylene oxide will be dominated by high-level finishing operation next week. The key point is still to pay close attention to the main plant.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China has been declining in a straight line in recent days, with the average price of propylene (Shandong) at the beginning of the week being 7,875 yuan/ton, while the average price of propylene (Shandong) on Friday was 7,525 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.45%, 5.69% compared with last weekend (August 3).

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, and began to fall continuously on the 5th day. It dropped 450-500 yuan/ton on the 8th day. Today, it is stable as a whole. At present, the market turnover is around 7480-7650 yuan/ton, the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan/ton, and the low-end price has been revised back. The supply of refineries has increased, the inventory is moderately high, and there is a certain pressure on shipment.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by the international situation, the international crude oil declined significantly in the first few days of this week, and the crude oil recovered significantly on Thursday. If we can maintain the upward trend, or have some support for propylene. Downstream, due to the sharp drop in propylene prices, downstream PP powder, butyl octanol and acrylic acid and other profits have increased, the start-up rate is still acceptable. This week, polypropylene futures prices are not ideal, spot prices have also declined, which has no positive effect on propylene for the time being; acrylic acid prices are flat all the way, which has little impact on propylene; while propylene oxide plant plant has a good negative effect, resulting in a rise in mid-week prices, which has a partial positive impact on propylene; and the epichlorohydrin market declined early in the week. Nearly 5% has a negative impact on propylene, while butyl octanol unit has decreased its negative impact and the market has increased slightly since last weekend, which has a slightly positive impact on propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch believes that: overall, the recent international crude oil market is unstable, the weekend rebound, big changes, PP spot market is not ideal, downstream profit margin has improved, start-up rate is good, but refinery inventory is slightly higher, shipment pressure is still large, propylene prices are expected to rebound in the near future or a small amount. Between.

PVC trading is tepid, market consolidation, price trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6722 yuan/ton on August 5, domestic PVC quoted 6705 yuan/ton on August 9, and the overall price fluctuation ranged from 50 to 100 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.26%. This week, PVC market consolidation was the main trend.

II. Cause Analysis

Product: This week, the price of PVC futures fell first and then rose, driving the spot price to follow the trend of the market. The actual spot delivery atmosphere is not warm, resulting in narrow price consolidation of PVC. Narrow price volatility, downstream buyers wait-and-see attitude, just need to purchase, as of August 10 domestic mainstream PVC quotation range 6550-6900 yuan/ton.

Industry: The rubber and plastic index was 678 on August 9, up 1 point from yesterday, down 36.04% from the peak of 1060 in the cycle (2012-03-14), up 17.71% from the lowest point of 576 on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This week, commodity market is mainly narrow consolidation, the overall trend of rubber and plastic industry is weak downward.

 
3. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the demand for PVC terminals is just in demand in the near future. The actual trading of PVC market is general and macroeconomic stability is maintained. In the short term, PVC market consolidation is expected to dominate. Supply-demand game dominates the price trend. The mainstream price of PVC 5 is expected to be 6500-7000 yuan/ton. Mainly

Price Trend

Lead market continued to rise this week (08.05-08.09). The average domestic market price was 16237.50 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 16700 yuan per ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.85%.

On August 9, the lead commodity index was 101.64, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 24.15% from the peak of 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 36.19% from the low of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the domestic spot lead market as a whole rose, with a cumulative increase of about 400 yuan/ton, mainly driven by the futures market. This week, Lun lead and Shanghai lead rebounded at the bottom, showing a good trend, Lun lead rose more, and Shanghai lead followed. Up to Friday, the mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai was maintained at about 16700-16900 yuan/ton. The market brand lead was concentrated in Jinsha lead in Shanghai, Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Minshan, Guangdong Nanhua lead, and Henan Yuguang. In terms of start-up, environmental protection in many places was strictly checked. Most factories in Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other places stopped or reduced production. Most of them are purchased on demand. The price of downstream batteries keeps rising, and the market gradually enters the peak season. In terms of lifting and discounting, the spot lifting range of this week is narrower than last week, with a set of Yunxi lifting range of 800-1200 yuan/ton, an ordinary cloud lifting range of 500-1000 yuan/ton and a small-brand lifting range of 200-500 yuan/ton.

Domestic events:

Nine departments of Sichuan Province jointly launched a special campaign on pollution prevention and control of waste lead-acid batteries: Recently, according to the requirements of the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of nine ministries and commissions (bureaus) on the issuance of the “Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries” (Solid State Environmental Protection Office No. 3, 2019), Sichuan Provincial Department of Ecological Environment, Development and Reform Commission The Nine Departments of the Council of Commissioners, the Department of Economy and Information, the Public Security Department, the Judicial Department, the Finance Department, the Transportation Department, the Provincial Taxation Administration, the Provincial Market Supervision and Administration, and the Commerce Department jointly issued the Action Plan for Preventing and Controlling the Pollution of Waste Lead Batteries in Sichuan Province. It is clear that by the end of 2020, the province will basically realize the standardized collection of waste lead Full coverage will be achieved in key counties (districts and municipalities) of the collection network, and the standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach more than 40%. By 2025, the standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach more than 70%, and the safe utilization and disposal of waste lead-acid batteries collected will be standardized.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the performance of basic metals first restrained and then increased. The offshore renminbi “unexpectedly” broke seven, while the US Treasury Department classified China as a currency manipulator. China-US relations deteriorated further. Subjects such as stock markets and bonds in the global financial system suffered a systematic slump. Gold continued to soar. Commodities fell sharply at the beginning of the week. Then, when the US dollar fell, the market panicked. Emotions gradually recovered, commodities showed a low rebound, repair the upward trend, most of the weekend recovered some of the early week’s decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week’s economic data in Europe and the United States are still relatively concentrated, and worries in the macro environment are not recovering. This week’s low rebound has lifted most metals out of the trough. However, the sustained rebound still needs the promotion of each metal’s own fundamentals and the degree of favor of funds. We should be alert to the gradual withdrawal of large-scale capital into the market in the next week. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels next week, but it is not ruled out that the high may fall.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of aniline in Nanjing remained stable this week compared with last week’s, rising by 100 yuan/ton on the 5th day and returning on the 6th day; the market price in Shandong fell by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, a decline of 1.25%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5500 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 5900 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: About 156,000 tons of pure benzene are in stock at the port this week, up from last week. Influenced by bad news such as crude oil, pure benzol and the softer downstream market, the traders are cautious and wait-and-see in the downstream market.

Product: This week raw material pure benzene Market weakened again, aniline cost surface support weakened. And the downstream demand is weak, and the follow-up to aniline is insufficient. The market price of aniline increased by 100 yuan/ton on the 5th day in East China due to the favorable factors of cargo ship delivery, but the market was still light, and decreased by 100 yuan/ton on the 6th. This week, aniline companies mainly reduce prices to inventory.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: At present, downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, the overall procurement enthusiasm is not high, although the previous inventory has declined, but considering that with the shrinking of the Asia-American window, subsequent arrivals will continue to increase, which will drag down the market recovery.

The hot weather, low downstream start-up rate, lack of support for aniline prices. It is reported that King King of Jinling has a parking maintenance plan, which provides good support for the price of aniline in Shandong, but the support is expected to be limited.

Aniline is expected to run weakly and steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6366.67 yuan/ton (including tax) as of August 8, and the price in mainstream areas was 83.34 yuan/ton (including tax) higher than that of last Friday (August 2). The weekly average price was 1.33% higher than that of last Friday (including tax). At present, the mainstream price range of n-butanol in China is 6200-6500 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the price of domestic butanol market continued to move steadily, slightly upward. The good maintenance of the plant still has an impact on the market. The firms offer more firm, the mainstream factories sell smoothly, the market activity atmosphere is more peaceful, the mainstream quotation in North China is around 6450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation in East China is around 6600 yuan./ Near ton.

Industry chain: The market price of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has fallen considerably this week. In early August, the propylene market operated steadily until August 5, when it began to fall, it dropped by 350 yuan/ton to August 7. At present, the market turnover is about 7550-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600 yuan/ton. Downstream factories are still in need of purchasing, refinery shipment pressure continues to rise, warming up the mood for profit and expenditure, further weakening the macro-market, the market for propylene is bad, propylene prices are expected to decline in recent days.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: It is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will remain strong in the near future.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market continued to be strong this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8890 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 9267 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 4.25%, which was 25.92% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to strengthen upward, Sinopec East and South China prices continued to rise 400 yuan/ton to 9700 yuan/ton, Sinopec North China and Central China prices followed up to 9300 yuan/ton, and Northern export manufacturers quoted 9500-9800 yuan/ton. Within a week, the export of goods in Northeast China was limited, only 338 tons of goods in Huajin were exported. The shortage of spot supply continued to bring obvious support to the market. The short-term sustained increase boosted the enthusiasm of replenishing warehouses downstream. The supply price of manufacturers kept rising and the overall market was pushing upward. With the strong rise of butadiene, the downstream synthetic rubber market rose slightly, and business mentality improved, the overall market climate improved. Inventory of tank farm in East China is low, the position of middlemen is limited, and the mentality of reluctance to sell is obvious. The news that Sinopec’s supply price in East China continues to rise has boosted the market, and the market quotation is high.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, the domestic dry rubber factory price slightly increased, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 sheet price 10200-10400 yuan/ton, 100-250 yuan/ton higher than last period; styrene-butadiene oil rubber 1712 sheet price 9300-9450 yuan/ton, 100-150 yuan/ton higher than last period. The price of Qilu 1502E has risen by 350 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; Qilu 1712 has risen by 9600 yuan/ton; Qilu 1502E has risen by 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Cis-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic high-cis-butadiene rubber mainstream ex-factory prices rose to 10,420-10,600 yuan/ton range, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; market mainstream prices rose to 10,700-11,100 yuan/ton range, compared with last week’s mainstream prices rose by 100-200 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, domestic manufacturers’inventory is low, spot supply is tight, and the downstream market is rising slightly. On the negative side, the profit of synthetic rubber bears pressure, and some downstream manufacturers plan to reduce production. Spot resources in Northeast China are shrinking, and market supply continues to drive up the market. With the rapid increase of butadiene and the narrowing of the price gap between butadiene and downstream synthetic rubber, the profit pressure of downstream butadiene-styrene and cis-butadiene industries is obvious. Recently, a few manufacturers have heard that they plan to reduce the volume or drag the market of butadiene in the later period. However, the supply side of short-term butadiene market is strong, and the supply price of Sinopec continues to rise. Business Association butadiene analysts expect the domestic butadiene market to remain strong next week, and suggest that attention should be paid to manufacturers’prices and trading conditions.

Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose first and then fell. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the price of cyclohexanone was 7966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 8333 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.60% in the month. Prices fell by 30.56% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In July, the cyclohexanone market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The raw material pure benzene market continues to rise, the cost side has a certain degree of support. The downstream caprolactam market prices are stable, moderate and upward, and Shenyuan, Hengyi and other factories purchase normally. There is no spot export in Luxi for the time being, and the overall spot supply is tight. In the latter ten days, the pure benzene market fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, and the pressure of high-price caprolactam shipment was on the high side. Some factories reduced the purchasing volume of cyclohexanone. In addition, the spot export of Luxi further aggravated the decline in the market price of cyclohexanone. The demand for solvent market was general in the month, and traders just needed to purchase, and market transactions were concluded. The atmosphere was flat.

Industry Chain: Raw Material: Pure Benzene: This month, the price of pure Benzene rebounded rapidly and fell back. Price is mainly affected by the trend of external market. As a result, the price of external market in the first 4-5 months was much higher than that in China, the import of pure benzene in June-July dropped sharply; some domestic reforming and disproportionation units were reduced due to cost reasons, and some large factories were converted to small-order supplementary contracts. Affected by the above reasons, domestic pure benzene supply was reduced, and port stock was reduced from 210,000 tons at the end of June to 155,000 tons at the end of July. Caprolactam: In July, the domestic caprolactam liquid market rose as a whole, slightly softening towards the end of the month. In July, the nylon industry chain as a whole was in a recovery situation. On the one hand, at the end of June, the G20 Summit of Chinese and American leaders released a positive signal. The US tariff of 325 billion US dollars was not levied on China for the time being, which boosted the market mentality and boosted the commodity market. On the other hand, at the end of June, the prices of caprolactam and PA6 slices fell to a new low, and the downstream purchase risk was not high. In addition, due to the market decline in the previous few months, the downstream purchase was concentrated at the end of June when the prices were low. The factory inventory eased and the peripheral good boosted, which led to the July market rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, 43 kinds of commodities rose annually in the chemical sector, of which 23 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 27.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (47.32%), phosphoric acid (26.94%) and hydrochloric acid (23.33%). There are 33 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 11.9% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-16.39%), sulfur (-13.71%) and bromine (-9.66%). This month’s average rise and fall was 2.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the spot supply of cyclohexanone plant fluctuates little, while the demand for downstream caprolactam may decrease, and the solvent market just needs to be purchased. Considering cost pressures, analysts of Cyclohexanone, a business firm, predict that the short-term market for Cyclohexanone will weaken by a limited margin. In the long run, new production capacity may be released in August, showing a pattern of supply exceeding demand.

Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic market for 1# lead ingots shocked, with an average price of 16106.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16650 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.38%.

On July 31, the lead commodity index was 100.38, down 0.95 points from yesterday, down 25.10% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and up 34.50% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: This month, the spot lead market overall shocks higher, in mid-July ushered in a wave of gains, mainly driven by the futures market, Lunqian eased trade tensions between China and the United States, the Federal Reserve expected to increase the probability of interest rate cuts, Pierre Port lead refinery delayed the resumption of production and other multiple good news stimulated, three consecutive daily results. The weekly increase of body length was 4.98%. Driven by this, Shanghai lead started to reach 16,450 yuan/ton on the 10th or so, reaching a new high in recent two months. Spot market was boosted and began to enter the ascending channel. However, downstream demand has not yet been liberalized. The downstream battery industry is mainly on the lookout, purchasing cautiously, and the rise in spot market is limited. On the 15th, with the expected global interest rate cut, the US dollar rose and fell. The domestic economic data for half a year showed that the economy was stable. The bull capital came into the market strongly. The basic metals were flushed red all over the line under the financial impetus. Lunqian rose continuously to US$2070/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.6% and a cumulative increase of about 9.3% in Lunqian in two weeks. Shanghai lead was driven by four consecutive Lianyang, up to 16,700 yuan/ton, a 3.5% weekly increase. The main trading range of spot lead is 16000-16575 yuan/ton, up about 500 yuan/ton. However, downstream battery companies are afraid of high-prudent mining, market turnover is poor, market confidence is inadequate, downstream manufacturers are less willing to hoard goods, mainly on-demand procurement, due to the lack of downstream support, spot lead prices are insufficient momentum to rise, downward shocks, restore the trend of shocks.

Supply and demand: According to a report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on July 16, global lead supply in May turned into an excess of 13,400 tons and a shortage of 30,800 tons in April. In the first five months of this year, the global lead market was short of 42,000 tons, compared with 34,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on July 17, the global lead market supply gap was 162,000 tons in January-May 2019 and 280,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. By the end of May, the total stock was 19,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to May 2019, global refined lead production (primary and recycled) was 5.177 million tons, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated at 2.462 million tons, an increase of 499,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States increased by 13,000 tons from January to May 2019. In May 2019, the output of refined lead was 1023,400 tons and the consumption was 103,06,000 tons.

Domestic events:

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: List of 7 lead-acid battery enterprises revoked by the announcement: According to “Standard Conditions for Lead-acid Battery Industry (2015 edition)” and “Management Measures for Lead-acid Battery Industry Announcement (2015 edition)”, the announcement (No. 5 in 2016, No. 38 in 2016, No. 20 in 2017) will be withdrawn from the announcement (No. 5 in 2016, No. 38 in 2016, No. 20 in 2017). The list of seven lead-acid battery enterprises sold will be announced.

Environmental protection “imperial mission” to start again! Central ecological environmental protection supervision involves central enterprises for the first time: Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a message that the second round of the first batch of central ecological environmental protection supervision will be launched in full in the near future. Eight central ecological environment protection supervision teams have been set up to supervise and stationed in six provinces and two central enterprises.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

The downstream battery industry continues to digest Pre-Inventory mainly, affected by high temperature, blocked plans to improve production capacity, feared high emotions, and lacked downstream support. It is expected that spot lead prices will still be mainly shocky.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of asphalt market rose in July. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was 3596 yuan/ton, which was 2.86% higher than that of 3496 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The demand of asphalt market improved in July, and the international oil price shocks warmed up. The price of asphalt market showed an upward trend.

Industry chain: In July, tense U.S. -Iraq relations, the Gulf of Mexico storm, worries about oversupply and other air news intertwined. The international crude oil market rises first, then falls and then rises, showing a general trend of shock and warming, supporting the price of asphalt market.

Asphalt market: After the strong price increase in mid-July in Northeast China, the price remained stable, and the traders mainly relied on the digestive inventory. The sales orders of asphalt in Shandong continue to be booming, and the refinery’s pick-up volume continues to be high. At the same time, some refineries stop production and reduce production to support the price of asphalt at the supply side. At the end of the rainy season in East China, following the pace of Shandong Province, the demand of traders for hoarding goods and the real demand of the terminal jointly led to hot spot transactions, which promoted the price of domestic asphalt market to rise.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business association, believes that the international crude oil market is heading for a better position, while the domestic asphalt market is entering a peak season, and the price of asphalt is expected to continue to rise in August.