According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has been fluctuating. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8787.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% from the beginning of the week’s price of 8775 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.68%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the current operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively normal, and recent downstream procurement is still acceptable. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased.

Cost side: There is still support for the rising costs in the ortho benzene market

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has increased. As of the 22nd, the price of ortho benzene was 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but port inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the external market price of ortho benzene has risen, which has affected the price trend of ortho benzene in China. The rising ortho benzene market has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market price has slightly increased.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price trend has declined. As of the weekend, the price was 11459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared to the price of 11566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers have started operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP is between 11400 and 11500 yuan/ton. The poor plasticizer market has suppressed the increase in phthalic anhydride, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride is fluctuating.

In the future, the price trend of ortho xylene is expected to rise in the short term, while the downstream plasticizer market has not changed much. The purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the short term, supported by strong raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda continued to decline in the first half of 2023, and has rebounded since September 11th. On September 11th, the average market price in Shandong was 819 yuan/ton. On September 21st, the average market price in Shandong was 996 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 21.61% in 20 days.

On the supply side

From a supply perspective, from July to August, domestic caustic soda enterprises have a large number of equipment maintenance plans, and the supply is relatively insufficient, resulting in a shortage of spot goods. In addition, the operating rate has decreased, with data showing that the operating rate of caustic soda is around 83%. The inventory of liquid alkali production enterprises has been declining for 7 consecutive weeks, with the latest inventory of 271200 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons compared to the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.92%.

 
In terms of demand

From the perspective of downstream demand structure, China’s caustic soda consumption is mainly based on aluminum oxide, with the demand of the aluminum oxide industry accounting for about 31% of downstream consumption, followed by chemical industry, water treatment and medicine, papermaking, textile printing and dyeing, etc. In the first half of the year, the demand for alumina was average, but the demand for caustic soda was limited. Recently, downstream demand has increased, leading to an increase in demand for caustic soda. Recently, the spot price of alumina has increased, with an average gross profit of about 200 yuan/ton, which is the highest point in the past year. The largest downstream alumina production capacity of caustic soda is released, and the demand for chemical industry is relatively strong during the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” peak season, resulting in a significant increase in demand for caustic soda.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, from the perspective of supply and demand, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and may continue to rise in the short term. With the arrival of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” policy, there is still a demand for stocking downstream. In addition, it is expected that there will be an additional 300000 to 400000 tons of production capacity in 2023, with an annual increase of around 2 to 2.1 million tons (see figure above). It is expected that there is still room for the spot price of caustic soda to rise after October, but the upward space is limited. With the increase of new production capacity, there may be pressure on the supply side. It is expected that the spot price will be lowered to a certain extent from November to December, depending on downstream market demand.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 13050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.96%. The weekend price decreased by 17.91% year-on-year.

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 11642.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11571.43 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.75% over the weekend. The market situation of maleic anhydride has significantly increased this week, with the price rising from 7799.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8499.80 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 8.97%. The weekend price has decreased by 1.39% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market situation of tetrahydrofuran, the spandex market price has stabilized at a high level this week. The price of spandex is 34250.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 2.24% over the weekend. Downstream spandex market prices have stabilized at high levels, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late September, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream demand is good. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week’s lead market (9.11-9.18) showed a “V” shaped trend, rising first and then falling. The average price in the domestic market was 16620 yuan/ton over the weekend and 16770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.9%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 10 consecutive weeks.

This week, the high volatility trend of Shanghai lead was the main trend, and macro data from the United States has performed well recently. The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has declined, which is good for the metal market. On the supply and demand side, the recent operation of refineries has been relatively stable, with little change in both primary and secondary lead. The overall operating rate has slightly increased. In terms of demand, the performance of downstream batteries remains sluggish during the peak season, and the overall improvement of the consumer end is limited, but there is still immediate demand. Overall, the current market sentiment is good and the futures market has performed positively, supporting the high consolidation trend of lead prices. It is expected that in the short term, the gold nine silver ten expectations will still exist, and the overall high consolidation trend of lead prices will be the main trend.

On September 17th, the base metal index stood at 1238 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.39% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 92.83% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 37th week of 2023 (September 11th to September 15th), with the top three commodities in terms of increase being metal silicon (3.89%), silver (2.72%), and zinc (2.39%). There are a total of four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.47%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.41%), and cobalt (-0.39%) being the top three products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.59%.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 15, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14760 yuan/ton. Compared with September 10 (organic silicon DMC reference 13340 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1420 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.64%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.10-9.15), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a broad upward trend. Entering September, organic silicon DMC has finally ushered in the “Golden Nine Effect”. Downstream demand is expected to rebound overall, and the market is generally positive. In addition, the high cost side market provides increased cost support for organic silicon DMC. This week, Shandong large factories actively raised the price of organic silicon DMC, with an adjustment of over 1000 yuan per ton. Other factories and suppliers are also actively increasing under the drive of large factories, with some factories mainly closing orders for early delivery, Part of the orders have been arranged until mid October, and the on-site spot supply is tight. The overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is good, and the confidence of operators has increased. As of September 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14700-15000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is mild. After the market rapidly rises to high prices, some downstream companies are actively restocking for fear that the market will continue to chase high, while others are still worried and cautious in order replenishment. However, as the Double Festival approaches, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC will continue to stabilize and continue to recover. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market prices will be more likely to recover

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 13th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 244000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% compared to last Friday (September 8th) and a decrease of 49.34% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has been operating weakly. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has fallen, and the lithium carbonate market is operating weakly, with poor cost support. Downstream demand is recovering slowly, and inquiry procurement continues to be in high demand. There is a strong cautious wait-and-see atmosphere, and enterprises still focus on long-term orders, with limited individual transactions. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the industrial grade lithium carbonate market has continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on September 13th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 192600.00, a decrease of 8.29% compared to September 1st (210000.00), which lacks support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society, the current weak cost support combined with weak demand has led to insufficient market atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be in a weak state and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic phenol market has shown a broad upward trend, with tight supply, cost support, and high average prices. Factories are actively raising prices. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national market price was 9275 yuan/ton on September 11th, a daily increase of 11.32%

Average Price Trend of Phenol Market in Major Regions of China

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on September 11th is as follows:

Region/. Quotation./Day Up/Down

East China region/ 9250/250

Shandong region/ 9280./330

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 9250/330

South China region/ 9450./400

The factory has raised the listing price in a centralized manner. Among them, Sinopec’s East China phenol quotation has been increased by 400 yuan/ton, implementing a price of 9200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s North China phenol quotation has been increased by 400 yuan/ton, implementing a price of 9200 yuan/ton. After multiple increases in factory prices, there was little spot pressure on the market, and traders were reluctant to sell and offer higher prices.

The cost support is strong, and the raw material market is rising. Pure benzene is negotiated at 8500-8650 yuan/ton, and downstream styrene profits have been restored, leading to an increase in factory procurement in the market. With the rapid rise of pure benzene to a high level in recent times, cost support has increased, and factory cost has increased. Actively raising prices is in line with market prices. Be cautious in chasing up high prices at the terminal, prioritize hard demand, and have limited trading volume.

From the perspective of the business community, the raw materials sector remained strong in September. Although domestic units Wanhua Chemical and Changchun Chemical have maintenance plans, downstream configuration units are also undergoing maintenance, which has little impact on market supply. Downstream phenolic resin is expected to weaken during the high temperature off-season, and demand may improve. It is expected that the market will remain strong in September and operate at a high level in the short term, with discussions ranging from 9250 to 9350 yuan/ton.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the market for trichloromethane has significantly increased. According to data from Business Society, as of September 11th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2450 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.13% from 2245 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine drops slightly, and the cost support for trichloromethane weakens slightly; The overall inventory of chloroform enterprises is low, and the supply of goods in the region is tight, leading to a significant increase in factory prices; Downstream construction requires support at a low level.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the domestic methane chloride production has been basically normal, with an overall production rate of around 7.6%.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the high price of raw material methanol has stabilized, the price of liquid chlorine has decreased, and the cost support for trichloromethane has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% from 2551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of September 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has decreased overall from 500 yuan/ton at the end of August, at 300 yuan/ton.

The overall operating low and stable price of refrigerant R22 has slightly increased, with the main demand for support for trichloromethane. However, in 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for trichloromethane demand will weaken in the medium to long term.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that supply and demand are still supported, and the cost side is still relatively high. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 8th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On September 7th, the rubber and plastic index reached 700 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 33.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 32.58% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell first and then rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8650.00 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96%. The price has decreased by 2.15% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene fell first and then rose in August. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly increasing since July, and the increase in August was greater than the decrease. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices, poor cost support, and the decline in styrene market. The reason for the increase is the rise in international oil prices, good cost support, low styrene inventory, and a rising market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene increased in August. The price of pure benzene in East China has increased in negotiations, and the industry expects that there will still be a shortage of imported goods arriving on ships in September. In addition, there will be a demand for National Day restocking in the downstream by the end of September, which will drive up spot prices in the far month. East China traders took profits, increased market circulation, and buying retreated. Shandong Refinery’s inventory is low, and the offer continues to rise.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in August. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9166 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9466 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 3.27% and a decrease of 10.55% compared to the same period last year. PS cost support, it is expected that in the short term, domestic PS (polystyrene) may mainly experience a volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in August. At the beginning of the month, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials was 9700.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 9850.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.52%. In August, domestic EPS prices were supported by costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range upward trend.

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose in August. In August, the upstream three materials of ABS were consolidated steadily with strong support for the cost side of ABS. The start of petrochemical plants saw a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and market inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a stalemate.

At present, the inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States has significantly decreased, international oil prices continue to rise, cost support is strong, and at the end of the month, the market is seeking bargains to replenish the increment. The mentality of styrene industry is good, and it is expected that the short-term volatility and rise of the styrene market will be the main trend.

On Thursday night trading, butadiene rubber 2401 opened at 12250 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in intraday trading. It closed at 13295 yuan/ton on the limit up board, with an increase of 9.47%. The closing price has increased by 23.67% compared to the opening price of 10750 yuan/ton on the first day of listing on July 28th.

Since the listing of butadiene rubber futures one month ago, the spot market of butadiene rubber has also shown a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11970 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.53% from 10830 yuan/ton on July 28. In August, the factory price of two barrels of oil butadiene rubber was gradually increased by 900 yuan/ton. As of August 31, the factory price of Daqing butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of domestic butadiene rubber was between 11700 and 12200 yuan/ton.

Industry Start Slightly Lowers Supply Side Pressure Relieves

Supply side: The overall construction of butadiene rubber in August slightly decreased.

Significant increase in raw material prices and cost support for the market of butadiene rubber

Since the end of July, the butadiene market has been rising, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 7626 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.90% from 7201 yuan/ton on July 28. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, bringing a certain boost to the cost side. At the same time, some downstream product prices rose, and there was some support for the market demand side. Merchants’ expectations for demand were stronger, combined with the strong offer for distant cargo in the outer market, resulting in a high market atmosphere; At the end of the month, the prices of butadiene in various sales companies of Sinopec, the main production enterprise, were increased to 7600 yuan/ton. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.

The increasing speed of natural rubber destocking provides support for rubber prices

Since the end of July, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating, but the speed of inventory removal at the end of the month has accelerated, providing some support for natural rubber and butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31st, the price was at 12090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 11960 yuan/ton on July 28th, and the low point during the cycle was at 11764 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the speed of natural rubber inventory destocking has increased rapidly. As of August 25, 2023, it is understood that the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 824400 tons, a decrease of 100000 tons from 926000 tons on July 23 and a decrease of 70000 tons from 895100 tons on August 20.

Tire production slightly increased compared to July, requiring support for rubber storage capacity

Demand side: The tire operating rate in August slightly increased compared to July, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Recently, rubber prices have continued to rise, especially with a significant increase in rubber prices on August 31st. This is mainly due to the support of industry chain fundamentals such as rapid inventory decline and high cost levels; On the other hand, it is stimulated by rumors of large capital hoarding and the continuous rise of Japanese glue. Driven by multiple factors, rubber prices have surged significantly.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of butadiene rubber raw materials is running high, and there is not much supply pressure. Coupled with the support of natural rubber destocking, it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will remain strong in the short term. If the market rubber inventory continues to rapidly decline, the spot price of butadiene rubber will continue to rise.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price slightly increased in August. The average price of mainstream tetrahydrofuran market in China increased from 12110.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12975.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.14%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 12.48% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have increased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of 1,4-butanediol slightly increased in August, with the market price rising from 11042.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11657.14 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.56%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 14.29% year-on-year. The market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in August, with the price rising from 6480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7220 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.42%. At the end of the month, prices fell by 6.96% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side, the market price of spandex slightly increased in August. The price of spandex has increased from 33500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 33625.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.37%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 2.83% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early September, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream market for maleic anhydride and 1,4-butanediol has significantly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.