1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rose in shock this month. On September 1, the price was 7600-7700 yuan/ton (the average price was 7617 yuan/ton); On September 28, the price was 7850-8100 yuan/ton (the average price was 7901 yuan/ton), up 3.72% this month and 1.55% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, crude oil fell broadly this month, and cost support weakened again. On the demand side, the prices of most downstream products of pure benzene rose this month, and the profitability improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton (300 yuan/ton to 7900 yuan/ton in North China).

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell in shock this month. On September 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 872 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars/ton month on month, or 2.9%; East China imported pure benzene at US $910 per ton, down US $2 per ton month on month, or 0.22%.

Downstream, styrene: styrene rose broadly this month and then fell back. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 8967 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 9417 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5.02% this month and 2.8% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: The demand has warmed up, the supply has tightened, the aniline fundamentals have strengthened, and the price has risen continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 10350 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 12300 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 18.84% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 10.15% higher than that at the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

As the Asian American arbitrage window is closed, the diversion of Asian pure benzene to China is increasing. It is estimated that there will still be a large number of imported cargoes in October, and the inventory of ports in East China may continue to accumulate. In terms of supply, the units of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical and HSBC Petrochemical are restarted. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Guangdong Petrochemical units of CPC Central Committee will be put into production. The downstream of pure benzene follows up cautiously, and it is possible that pure benzene will weaken in the later period. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 32000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 36375 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 13.67%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose this month. At present, the market transaction is fair. The preparation of goods before the National Day has been basically completed. The market is mainly wait-and-see at present, and the actual transaction is more cautious. Most manufacturers suspend the external quotation, and more single discussion is preferred. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36500 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphorus ore, the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market price of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore fell slightly, and the price of some mining enterprises decreased slightly by about 10-20 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the main reason for the weakening of the phosphate ore market was that the terminal demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was average, which affected the mentality of the industry. The support for the phosphate ore demand side was loose, and the overall market atmosphere was weaker than that at the end of August. At present, as the National Day holiday is approaching, the logistics transportation is also stopped in succession. The information in the phosphate rock yard is generally quiet. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate mainly in a stable way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes in the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase and decrease in September 2022. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2500 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2600 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 3.85%. To sum up, with the rising price of coking coal, the cost of coking enterprises keeps rising, and some coking enterprises begin to lose money. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved to a certain extent, and the overall market has fluctuated upward. At present, Coke Steel has a strong game mentality. In the future, it is expected that coke prices will remain stable and relatively strong, focusing on the downstream sales of finished products and the impact of coke market trends on coke prices.

In terms of demand, the market price of phosphoric acid rose in July. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month was 8860 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 10140 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month, by 14.45%. Influenced by the upstream market, the price of phosphoric acid market rose as a whole this month. Near the end of the month, the rising trend of the phosphoric acid market fell back. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will temporarily stabilize in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices have risen this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock was adjusted at a high level, and the downstream phosphoric acid market as a whole was dominated by growth. Recently, some regions in Yunnan have limited power supply, and Guizhou and Sichuan have been rumored to have limited power supply, which is good for the yellow phosphorus market. The overall confidence of the yellow phosphorus market is fair, and it is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will consolidate and operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market fell this week (9.20-9.27), mainly due to the pressure on the dichloromethane market brought by the improvement of the supply side. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 27, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3147 yuan/ton, down 4.26% from 3287 yuan/ton last Tuesday.

This week, the Jinling plant was raised to full capacity, and the supply in the region was increased compared with the previous period, which brought some pressure to the dichloromethane market.

Domestic methane chloride started to increase slightly.

This week (9.20-9.27), the spot price of methanol rose in shock, and the cost support of dichloromethane strengthened. According to the business community, as of September 27, the spot price of methanol was 2805 yuan/ton, up 3.51% from 2710 last Tuesday. The domestic methanol market rose in shock. As an energy product, coal is in continuous shortage, and methanol has strong cost support.

In the traditional golden nine silver ten season season, the downstream rarefied materials, cleaning, and pharmaceutical industries had a small amount of stock in the early stage, but near the end of the month, the downstream stock almost ended, and the support for dichloromethane became weak.

Future market forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride has slightly increased in the short term, and the cost continues to rise. In addition, the downstream stock preparation near the end of the month is basically completed in the short term. It is expected that the market for dichloromethane will narrow before the festival. However, after the festival, methanol may have the opportunity to continue to rise as the weather gets colder, and then dichloromethane may rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12400 yuan/ton on September 19, and 12200 yuan/ton on September 26. Caprolactam prices fell 1.61% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, and the cost end of caprolactam was well supported. However, the downstream demand is not good, and there is resistance to high prices. Most of them purchase at low prices. The devices of some manufacturers were restarted, and the on-site supply of caprolactam increased. As of September 26, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12700 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose this week. The purchase enthusiasm of the downstream is good before the festival, the market negotiation increases, and the pure benzene continues to strengthen. On September 26, the crude oil fell sharply, the downstream styrene weakened, the demand for pure benzene weakened, and the market price fell slightly. The price of domestic pure benzene is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the market trading volume of caprolactam is fair in the near future, and the downstream will purchase on demand, and the caprolactam manufacturer will lower the price slightly for shipment. The supply of caprolactam will increase if the maintenance devices of some enterprises are restarted or planned to restart. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by the weak finishing operation in the short term.

From September 16, 2022 to September 23, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6100 yuan/ton last weekend and 6337.5 yuan/ton this weekend, up 3.89%.

On September 22, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 218.53, up 8.19 points from yesterday, hitting a new record high in the cycle, and up 363.48% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Summary of coal tar price in Shanxi (unit: yuan/ton)

Region, market price, compared with the bid price last week

Linfen., 6280.,+130

Taiyuan., 6300.,+300

Lvliang., 6380.,+310

The bidding price in Shanxi continued to rise this week, hitting a record high again. The price in the downstream deep processing industry continued to rise, and the acceptance of the rising raw material price was high. The bidding price of coal tar rose again this week on the support of demand.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six consecutive months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the price has once again hit a record high.

Summary of Price Changes of Major Commodities in Coal Tar Deep Processing Industry in Shandong (Unit: yuan/ton)

Product name: September 16, September 23, up and down

Maleic anhydride., 8600., 8100., – 500

Industrial naphthalene., 6400., 6600.,+200

Anthracene oil., 6100., 6200.,+100

Wash oil, 6500., 6600.,+100

Coal tar pitch., 7200., 7400.,+200

In terms of the industrial chain, most of the major domestic coal chemical products rose in the current period, except for ammonium sulfate and maleic anhydride. The commodity coal tar pitch with the highest growth rate rose about 200-300 yuan/ton in the mainstream of the domestic market this week, which is different from the previous growth factors. This week’s rise was driven by the cost. Affected by the tight supply of coal tar, the tar bidding price rose sharply this week, driving the downstream commodity prices to continue to rise. And industrial naphthalene is also affected by cost factors. This week, the domestic mainstream price was 6400-6680 yuan/ton, up 200-250 yuan/ton.

The coal tar market price rose again this week. Up to now, it has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the price has hit a record high again. The bidding price of the main production area in Shanxi this week is 6280-6380 yuan/ton; Shandong rose slightly to 5950-6050 yuan/ton this week; Hebei region rose 100 yuan/ton to 5950-6050 yuan/ton; Henan rose 100 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the long holiday, the intention of downstream goods preparation is high, and the deep processing industry is generally active in procurement. At the same time, due to the policy of extending coking time by 40 to 45 hours in many places in Shanxi, tar supply is tight this week. Under the double positive influence of tight supply and better demand, prices in Shanxi rose sharply this week. As the market is about to enter October, it is expected that the supply will continue to shrink in the future market, and the market has a high bullish intention. At present, the tar price has hit a new historical high again, and the downstream enterprises have a certain fear of heights. However, affected by the actual demand, it is expected that the tar market will continue to operate in a stable, medium and strong trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7320 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, up 3.77% from 30 days ago.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation in the propylene (Shandong) market was 7400-7450 yuan/ton, and the enterprise’s offer was raised one after another. The market was active. With the help of Jinjiu market, the propylene sales improved and the inventory decreased. The supply remained stable, and the maintenance devices were intended to resume operation in succession. In terms of demand, the market of downstream derivatives improved, the enthusiasm for production increased, and the purchase of propylene increased.

Upstream: The raw material market fell mainly this week, but by a small margin, with limited impact on propylene prices.

Downstream: almost all downstream products rose. Driven by the peak season of the chemical industry, product profitability rebounded and productivity improved, forming a strong support for the propylene market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analyst of Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, the current market supply is still loose, and most enterprise offers follow the trend of the market. There is a slight lack of momentum for future market growth. It is expected that the propylene price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price was 42400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 41800 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price fell 1.42%, down 8.42% year on year. On September 15, the bromine commodity index was 146.67, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.18% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 148.93% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine this week is weak. The overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is average recently. The market transaction is still light. The production of bromine enterprises is relatively stable. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, the downstream did not rush to purchase, and the price was intentionally lowered.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price rose slightly this week, with the average market price of 1126.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1143.33 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose 1.48%, down 41.37% year on year. The port market continues to rise, the cargo holders have a positive attitude, and it is difficult to find low prices on the site. The downstream sulfuric acid market is stable, while the ammonium phosphate market is slightly weak. The downstream follows up on the purchase of sulfur as required. The local refineries mainly supply sulfuric acid manufacturers around. There is no inventory pressure for the time being, and the quotation is mainly stable. At present, the domestic market is not obviously good, and the short-term sulfur market is wait-and-see.

The analysts of the business society believe that the bromine price has been consolidated and operated in the near future. The bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, and the bromine supply is relatively sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine is relatively general in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides are playing a game, and the price is deadlocked. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be consolidated and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

This week, DOP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 19, the DOP price was 10312.50 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 6.87% over the DOP price of 9650 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The prices of raw materials, DOP costs and DOP prices rose significantly.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol rose by shock this week. As of September 19, the price of isooctanol was 9366.67 yuan/ton, up 5.64% from the shock of 8866.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The price of isooctanol rose, and the cost of DOP rose.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of September 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9600 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 9250 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the downstream plasticizer started to rise, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, phthalic anhydride rose greatly, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, and DOP rose more.

Future market expectation

Business agency DOP data analysts believe that more plasticizer enterprises started this week; The price of raw material isooctanol rose in shock, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, and the cost of plasticizer DOP rose. In the future, the supply and demand of plasticizer enterprises are basically stable, the price of raw materials rises in shock, and the driving force for the rise of DOP prices is still large. It is expected that DOP prices will become strong and stable in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 19, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10066.67 yuan/ton, 2.27% lower than that of last Wednesday (September 14), 11.85% higher than that of August 19, and 8.76% lower than that of last Wednesday (September 14).

Recently (9.14-9.19), the market of propylene oxide has declined. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, and the cost support has been strengthened. Since the 14th, although the supply side inventory has accumulated slightly, it is temporarily controllable. The demand side is flat and just needs to follow up. The downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, so it is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. On the 19th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong Province was lowered to 9950-10100 yuan/ton. Some devices at the supply side recovered, and the demand side is still flat, waiting and waiting.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week (9.12-9.16). The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7320 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, 3.77% higher than 30 days ago.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 10166.67 on September 16, up 9.91% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that at present, the cost support is still there, the supply side is increasing, the demand side is waiting cautiously, and the market atmosphere is cold. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by the weak, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

From September 9, 2022 to September 16, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose overall, at 7800 yuan/ton last weekend, and 7866.67 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.85% weekly.

Main domestic market price of hydrogenated benzene this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Market, price on September 9, price on September 16, up and down

East China, 7800 ～ 7850, 7900 ～ 7950,+100

Shandong, 7650~7700., 7700~7750.,+50

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell sharply over the weekend. The settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 85.10 dollars/barrel, down 3.38 dollars or 3.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 90.84 dollars/barrel, down 3.26 dollars or 3.5%. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4%, hitting a one week low. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the expectation of global economic recession continues to depress oil prices.

The crude oil analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market. The probability of short-term oil market wide shocks is high.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

August 11., 7950., – 200

August 16., 7750., – 200

August 18., 7500., – 250

August 30., 7600.,+100

September 6., 7750.,+150

On September 6, 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene will be increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the current implementation is 7750 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly in late August and early September.

This week, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, supported by the double positive effects of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene rose, and downstream people generally purchased on demand. Their enthusiasm for purchasing high priced goods was limited, and the overall market transaction was average. In the near weekend, with the impact of the lower crude oil price and the overall decline of styrene, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the market as a whole stayed on the sidelines. However, the ex factory price of benzene hydrogenation enterprises rose overall this week, driven by the improvement of downstream procurement. On the supply side, the operating rate of pure benzene declined slightly this week, and the arrival of cargoes in East China ports was delayed, resulting in a slight shortage of market supply. On the whole, the tight supply currently supports the pure benzene market, while crude oil, styrene and other recent shocks are large, and the guidance to the industrial chain is not obvious. In addition, the impact of stock preparation before the festival, it is expected that the overall market of the industrial chain will be dominated by strong shocks in the future, and the future market will focus on the trend of crude oil and downstream demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 15, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6966 yuan/ton. Compared with September 11 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 6666 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 4.5%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the Mid Autumn Festival (9.12-9.15), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a steady upward trend. After the festival, the downstream demand for n-butanol was released steadily. Supported by the demand side, the n-butanol market price was gradually rising. As of September 14, the factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 6800-7000 yuan/ton. Compared with before the festival, the price rose by 200 yuan/ton, or more than 3%. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is mild, the mentality of the industry is good, and the overall market is strong.

In terms of upstream propylene, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the overall domestic propylene market in Shandong Province showed an upward trend. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7440.60 yuan/ton on September 14, up 1.90% compared with September 8 (7300 yuan/ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand for n-butanol has been released to a certain extent after the festival. The market transactions are relatively active, and the factory quotations are mostly firm. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly operate stably, and whether the market price can continue to rise requires more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of acrylonitrile rose sharply this week (9.2-9.10). As of September 10, the spot market price of acrylonitrile in China was 9550 yuan/ton, up 6.23% from 8990 yuan/ton last Friday. This week, the supply side operation rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall operation rate of 60% to 70%. However, the acrylonitrile resources in Northeast Asia were more strained than in the early stage. In addition, the downstream Jinjiuyin had a small stock of goods, and the overall offer of merchants rose. As of September 10, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile apron market in East China was between 9000 and 9750 yuan/ton.

The price of raw propylene rose slightly this week (9.2-9.10), supporting the cost. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 10, the domestic propylene price was 7320 yuan/ton, up 3.98% from 7040 yuan/ton last Friday.

The operating rate of ABS in the downstream continued to increase, driven by the export inquiry. As of the first ten days of September, the operating rate of ABS had risen to nearly 90%; The operating rate of domestic acrylic fiber is low, around 40%; The acrylonitrile butadiene rubber and acrylamide started stably, and the acrylonitrile demand surface was more supportive than that in the early stage.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost of acrylonitrile is supported at present, the supply side pressure in Asia is relieved, and the demand side is slightly improved. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to rise slightly in the future.

Recently, DOTP price fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the recent DOTP price fluctuated and fell. As of September 11, the DOTP price was 9800 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from 10175 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Plasticizer enterprises started to recover slowly, and the supply of plasticizers increased. In September, DOTP prices fell in shock.

Plasticizer enterprises started to recover

With the decrease of temperature and rainfall in some areas, the situation of power shortage in Sichuan has been alleviated. General industrial and commercial power consumption in Sichuan Province has been completely restored. With the continuous support of the State Grid, the contradiction between power supply and demand in Sichuan was basically solved at the end of August and the beginning of September. After the end of power rationing, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain enterprises returned to normal, and with the advent of “golden nine and silver ten”, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises increased, and the pressure of plasticizer price decline increased.

Raw material prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol has dropped due to the recent shock. As of September 11, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan / ton, down by 2.92% from 9133.33 yuan / ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, there were many overhauls of isooctanol enterprises, which led to a sharp rise in the price of isooctanol at the end of August. However, the plasticizer enterprises started to work at a low level, and the plasticizer enterprises were cautious in stocking up before the festival. The demand for isooctanol was weak, the support for the rise of isooctanol price was insufficient, and the price of isooctanol fell slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the recent PTA price fluctuated and rose. As of September 11, the PTA price was 6613.33 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the shock of 6355.83 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In September, PTA’s operating load was low, there were many enterprises that stopped production and overhauled, PTA’s supply was insufficient, and in addition, PX’s price rose and PTA’s cost rose, which greatly supported PTA’s price rise.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business association believe that the plasticizer enterprises started to recover in September, PTA prices rose in shock, isooctanol prices stabilized in shock, and DOTP prices fell in shock. In the future, with the arrival of Jinjiu, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain have both warmed up, the price of raw materials has risen in shock, and the downward pressure of the rising momentum of DOTP has been weakened. It is expected that the DOTP price will be strong and stable in the future.

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, as of September 5, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5016 yuan / ton, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that on August 28, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 4866 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.08%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of business association that in the first week of September (8.29-9.5), the diethylene glycol market rose steadily as a whole. At the beginning of the week, the cargo volume of diethylene glycol in the storage area was low, the confidence of the industry was boosted, and the market situation was steadily rising as a whole. At the middle of the week, the feedback of the diethylene glycol market was general, the momentum of the continuous growth of the diethylene glycol market was general, and the market was running steadily. At the weekend, the overall diethylene glycol market situation was again rising steadily, the downstream demand was slightly boosted, and the market focus was steadily rising. As of September 5, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 4900-5300 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol market is fair, the attitude of the industry is positive, and the downstream just needs to be the main one.

At present, the diethylene glycol market as a whole is running steadily, moderately and strongly, of which the rise in South China is more obvious, and the downstream demand has given the market some support. The diethylene glycol statistician of business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market will be mostly stable and small, with interval adjustment.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 4900.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 4633.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.44%. This week, the factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes was 4480 yuan / ton. On September 4, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 121.93, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.76% from 144.74 points (June 21, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.08% from 96.71 points, the lowest point on September 16, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 4400 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 4850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 4650 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 4400-4500 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 4500-4600 yuan / ton. 62% of Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4300 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4880 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9525.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9475.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.02%. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly, from 6825.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6800.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.37%, up 20.35% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuation and decline. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase is just needed. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Analysts of potassium chloride of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

After hitting the bottom, the chloroform market rose slightly in August. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2825 yuan / ton, up 4.63% from 2700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. First of all, after August, the pressure on the supply side of high-level trichloromethane for the commencement of methane chloride continued; Secondly, the slight increase in the price of raw methanol supported chloroform; Finally, the after-sales demand of downstream refrigerant in high-temperature weather increases, which has more impact on chloroform.

In August, the domestic methane chloride plant started steadily, and the overall supply was loose.

In August, the raw material methanol market fell first and then rose. The spot price fluctuated and consolidated in the range of 150 yuan / ton, which has a certain support for trichloromethane. According to the business agency, as of August 31, the price of methanol was 2540 yuan / ton, down 0.59% from 2555 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The lowest point in the month was 2412 yuan / ton, and the highest point was 2568 yuan / ton. In August, the high-temperature weather was the peak of power consumption, the coal supply was relatively tight, and the methanol supply for the early methanol plant maintenance was relatively tight. Methanol was supported by the cost and supply side, and the price was adjusted in a narrow range from a high level in stages. It can be seen from the “methanol trichloromethane price trend comparison” chart that currently the cost of methanol continues to be supported by trichloromethane.

In August, high temperature weather occurred frequently throughout the country, and the overall price of refrigerant R22 rose slightly. The demand is supported by trichloromethane.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business club believe that the supply side pressure is still on, but the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the price of chloroform will fluctuate narrowly in the later period.

Magnesium metal trend in August

In August, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 22000-26000 yuan / ton, and the average price in the cycle was 23557.47 yuan / ton. The rise and fall of commodities were 11.92%. This month, the magnesium market experienced strong shocks, and the overall price moved upward. At the beginning of the month, the magnesium price showed a weak consolidation, the demand follow-up was insufficient, the superimposed cost support was weak, the market maintained a cautious attitude, and magnesium factories also took measures to reduce and limit production one after another, but the total supply was still on the high side; In mid August, the magnesium market ushered in the first round of price increase in August, with a continuous increase of about 2000 yuan / ton for four days. Export orders on the demand side were released in a concentrated manner, some domestic middlemen speculated and hoarded goods, and magnesium factories took advantage of the trend to raise prices; Near the end of the month, the magnesium market ushered in the second round of price increase, which rapidly rose to the transaction price of 26000 yuan / ton. The main factor of this round of sharp increase is the impact of the epidemic in Shenmu area, which has made the already high coal price worse. People in the industry are pessimistic about coal supply expectations.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of August 29, the tax included spot exchange in the magnesium ingot Market was 25666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of about 2500-3000 yuan / ton over the beginning of the month, a decrease of 11.92%, which was the same as that of the same period last year.

Market analysis

Export

According to customs statistics, China’s magnesium ingot export in July was 24936 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.4%, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Compared with June, the export volume decreased slightly, and the monthly export volume and cumulative export volume were still at a high level.

Output:

In July, China’s magnesium ingot output was 69286 tons, a month on month decrease of 14.74%, a year-on-year increase of 18.73%, an operating rate of 59.47%, a month on month decrease of 14.74%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. From June to August, the magnesium plant was overhauled at high temperature in summer. Due to the weak market demand, the contradiction of overproduction in the main production area was prominent, and some magnesium enterprises had a serious shortage of funds, so they had to take the initiative to stop production for overhaul.

Raw materials

Coke fell by 18.18% in August

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced two rounds of increases in August, with an increase of 400-480 yuan / ton in the month. The increase in production costs boosted the rise in magnesium prices. Recently, an epidemic broke out in Shenmu area. At present, some coal mines and traffic have been affected to a certain extent. It is not ruled out that the coal supply will be more tight in the future, which will further lead to the shutdown of the magnesium plant.

Future forecast

In general, the expected shortage of raw materials in the short term supports the rise of magnesium prices and production costs. Factories are not willing to reduce their quotations too quickly. However, considering that demand has not recovered at present and there are few export orders, it is expected that magnesium prices will be consolidated in September. Follow up attention will be paid to the impact of the epidemic on raw material transportation and downstream transactions.

In August, the domestic dimethyl ether Market as a whole continued to rise, and the Henan market showed a phased rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 1, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3765 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average price was 4030 yuan / ton, with an increase of 7.04% within the month and 13.12% compared with the same period last year.

As of August 31, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region. Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4230 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4350 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4010-4030 yuan / ton

In August, the domestic dimethyl ether market price was relatively strong, the ex factory quotation in Henan market was increased in stages, and the Hebei and Shandong markets were also significantly higher. In August, there were many favorable factors in the market. First, the equipment maintenance of enterprises such as Henan Yima in the month significantly reduced the market supply. The raw material methanol market increased in the second half of the month, which brought certain support to the market in terms of cost. The civil gas market of related products was strong in August, which was favorable to the market. The market entry is more active in the downstream buying mentality. The inventory of the manufacturers is in a controllable state. The mentality is relatively strong and the price rises in stages.

In the spot market of raw material methanol, at the end of the month, the price center of domestic methanol market rose, and the rebound of crude oil and coal boosted the futures market. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises was low, and traders were in the mood of boosting. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 22 to 29, the average price of domestic methanol market increased from 2458 yuan / ton to 2539 yuan / ton. During the period, the price increased by 3.26%, and the price fell by 2.23% month on month and 2.91% year on year.

On the whole, at present, the raw material methanol is the main actor in the market, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. The civil market of related products liquefied gas is supported by the rise of international crude oil at the end of the month, and the price rises significantly. Moreover, the golden nine is coming, and the operators have a good attitude. Currently, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market has mostly risen to above 4000 yuan / ton. However, in September, the units of some manufacturers recovered, and the market supply level was improved, which brought some restrictions. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will rise steadily in September.