According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 29th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on January 1st.

The market for epichlorohydrin remained stable in January. In the first half of the month, raw material prices adjusted narrowly, with average cost support and low industry capacity utilization. Enterprises mainly delivered contracts and self use, with tight spot supply. Downstream demand followed up with small orders after phased replenishment, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere and average transactions. Holders adjusted their prices flexibly based on their own situation, and the focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market remained stable with little movement. In the second half of the month, cost support is limited, and spot supply is tight and continuing. However, there is a lack of strong support in the demand side. Downstream rigid demand will follow up with price adjustments, and market negotiations will focus on stability.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on January 29th was 6955.75, an increase of 1.27% compared to January 1st (6868.25), and the cost is generally supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for downstream epoxy resin on January 29th was 13133.33, a decrease of 0.76% compared to January 1st (13233.33), indicating insufficient support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, with tight supply side spot support. However, downstream pre holiday stocking is nearing completion, and the market trading atmosphere is average. It is expected that the short-term market for epichlorohydrin may remain stable, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8690.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%. The price has increased by 9.38% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has risen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, with slight fluctuations in the market this week. The supply side is tightening, international oil prices are rising, and cost support is still acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is poor, and spot transactions in the styrene market are flat, with slight fluctuations in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fluctuated this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 7950 yuan/ton. Affected by the weakening of the external market, the market is resistant to high prices, and the negotiation atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a decrease in trading volume in both East China and Shandong. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will be weak.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average PS quotation at the beginning of this week was 9566 yuan/ton, and the average PS price over the weekend was 9633 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.7% and a decrease of 1.03% compared to the same period last year. PS cost support, it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price in the short term will mainly fluctuate.

The EPS market remained stable this week, with an average price of 10137.50 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a slight increase. As of January 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10862.50 yuan/ton, a+1.88% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month. The recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, with the acrylic nitrile market mainly consolidating. The price of propylene, the raw material, continues to rise, providing sufficient support for the cost of acrylonitrile. In the early stage, the supply of acrylonitrile was relatively loose, and the current market is buying coldly. The pre holiday stocking volume is average, and the market is balanced between long and short positions, with prices mainly being sideways.

The recent market expectations are optimistic, with international oil prices rising. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, styrene inventories are rising, and spot transactions are slow. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and decline.

The overall domestic dimethyl ether market in Henan declined in January. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3775 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 3725 yuan/ton on January 26th. The monthly decline was 1.32%, a decrease of 19.45% compared to the same period last year.

As of January 26th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3700 yuan/ton

In January, the price center of dimethyl ether in the Henan region continued to shift downwards. In early January, due to the decline in raw material methanol, the price of dimethyl ether was lowered. Affected by the sluggish demand trend, upstream parking reduction enterprises continue to increase, and supply continues to decrease. However, due to the continued weak demand side, the price of dimethyl ether further declined after a period of stalemate and consolidation. At the end of the month, the price of raw material methanol increased, and the cost pressure of dimethyl ether increased. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, dimethyl ether did not keep up with the increase.

The methanol market fluctuated and rose in January, with significant price increases at the end of the month. From January 1st to 26th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic methanol market increased from 2450 yuan/ton to 2565 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.89% during the cycle. The cost has increased, but the stability of dimethyl ether has led to significant cost pressure on dimethyl ether.

Overall, as the Spring Festival approaches, there has been no significant improvement in the downstream of dimethyl ether. With cost support, it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain a weak and stable operation.

This week, the lead market (1.15-1.22) overall rose, with the average price in the domestic market at 16085 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 16370 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 1.77%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

The social inventory of lead ingots has been continuously declining recently, dropping to a low level within three years, boosting the futures market. Recently, lead prices have been more affected by supply and demand. In terms of supply, the mining supply is still tight, and some primary lead enterprises have recently resumed production. Some enterprises plan to conduct a review after the year, and the overall operating rate has not changed much. Recycled lead enterprises have been affected by high prices of waste batteries and tight supply, resulting in overall low production in recent times. Overall, the supply of lead ingots in the market is slightly tight, and downstream storage enterprises still have some stocking demand. They actively enter the market for inquiries, and the market atmosphere is good. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the holiday season, and the market is expected to start lower in the future. The demand for stocking is almost coming to an end, and demand support is expected to be weak in the future. Overall, although the lead ingot market still has positive support from the supply side, downstream purchasing intentions are slowly falling, and it is expected that there will be significant resistance to further upward movement in the short term. There may be room for a pullback in the market after stocking up, and the short-term trend will remain weak and volatile.

Related data:

On January 21, the base metal index was 1161 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.84% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 21, the non-ferrous index was at 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the third week of 2024 (1.15-1.19), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (2.17%), dysprosium oxide (2.08%), and antimony (2.01%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-1.71%), aluminum (-1.00%), and silver (-0.77%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on January 15th was 811 yuan/ton, and on January 19th, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 881 yuan/ton. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market increased by 8.62%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen this week. This week, there has been an increase in market inquiries, an improved trading atmosphere, and a continuous increase in the bidding price of ammonium sulfate. Recently, the international urea price has risen, which has indirectly benefited the ammonium sulfate market. As of January 19th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 830 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900-960 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the price trend of ammonium sulfate has been improving recently. Particle manufacturers actively follow up, replenish downstream as needed, and remain cautious about high prices, with limited room for growth. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be relatively strong in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

Review of the market situation of butadiene rubber in 2023

In 2023, the market price of butadiene rubber fluctuated and rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of butadiene rubber at the beginning of 2023 was 10580 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 12430 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 17.49%; The low point of the year was 10330 yuan/ton, and the high point was 13380 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 34.37%.

From January to February at the beginning of the year, on the one hand, the raw material butadiene significantly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber increased. On the other hand, after the comprehensive opening up, downstream production gradually increased, and the price of butadiene rubber increased; From March to June, with a significant decline in the price of raw material butadiene and weak demand for loose supply of butadiene rubber, the price of butadiene rubber plummeted to the lowest point of the year; Supported by four factors from July to September, including an increase in tire production, a significant increase in raw material prices, rotating maintenance of butadiene rubber equipment, and a bullish sentiment towards the listing of butadiene rubber futures funds, the price of butadiene rubber began a second round of increase, reaching a peak of 13880 yuan/ton in September; Although the price of butadiene continued to rise slightly after the National Day holiday, the price of butadiene rubber gradually declined due to negative factors such as increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene and a gradual decline in downstream tire production in the off-season; At the end of the year, due to the impact of multiple equipment maintenance for butadiene rubber, the production of butadiene rubber decreased to a low level of 5.5%. In a tight supply situation, the price of butadiene rubber rebounded.

In summary, there are three main factors that will affect the trend of butadiene rubber in 2023: firstly, the tire production in 2023 has increased to a certain extent compared to 2022, supporting the overall upward trend of butadiene rubber market in 2023 from the demand side; 2、 The price of raw material butadiene fluctuated widely, and the cost side boosted the rise of butadiene rubber at the beginning of the year and in the third quarter; 3、 In 2023, only Zhejiang Petrochemical’s new production capacity of 100000 tons/year of butadiene rubber was put into operation, and there was not much increase in production capacity. However, the rotating maintenance of multiple units of butadiene rubber during the year caused a tight supply side, which helped push up the price of butadiene rubber in the third quarter and at the end of the year.

Market forecast for butadiene rubber in 2024

Cost side: More new production capacity for butadiene, expected decrease in cost of butadiene rubber

According to Business Society, there will be a significant increase in the production capacity of raw material butadiene in 2024. Although downstream production capacity of butadiene has also increased to some extent, the overall increase is not as fast as the expansion of butadiene, and there will be more production in the second half of the year. It is expected that the supply of butadiene will face significant pressure in 2024, especially in the second half of the year when the market will operate under pressure. As of the end of November 2023, the butadiene production capacity in 2023 was 6.416 million tons; In 2024, the new production capacity of butadiene will reach 1.07 million tons, and the butadiene production capacity will reach 7.486 million tons.

Supply side: The continued increase in production capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to bring certain pressure to the 2024 market

After the addition of 100000 tons of new annual production capacity of butadiene rubber in 2023 (already put into operation), the new annual production capacity of butadiene rubber in 2024 is 320000 tons, and nearly half of the new production capacity will be released by the end of 2024. This will gradually increase the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber in 2024, especially starting from the end of 2024, the pressure will reach a new high.

Demand side: Domestic tire production capacity continues to expand in 2024, and demand for butadiene rubber is expected to increase slightly

In 2024, domestic tire production capacity will continue to expand. It is reported that in 2024, the production capacity of semi steel tires and full steel tires will increase by 25 million and 5.5 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and 2.5%. In addition, the expected increase in both internal and external demand for tires in 2024 will support the domestic tire industry to maintain a high operating rate, which in turn will support the market for butadiene rubber in 2024.

The driving force for tire demand in 2024 is divided into two paths: internal and external. On the one hand, the expected increase in domestic automobile production and sales provides support for tire demand. Affected by the expansion of domestic demand and industrial policy support, the demand for tires will continue to grow domestically. It is reported that at the 2024 China Automotive Market Development Forecast Summit held on December 11, 2023, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) predicted that the sales of automobiles and new energy vehicles in 2024 would be approximately 31 million and 11.5 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and 20%. On the other hand, the improvement of domestic tire technology and low prices have continuously enhanced the competitiveness of Chinese tires in the international market. In addition, the development of emerging markets such as Mexico and Brazil has created opportunities for Chinese tire exports. It is expected that the domestic tire export volume will continue to increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Looking ahead to 2024, due to increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene, the overall price expectation is expected to decline, and the cost of butadiene rubber in 2024 will decrease to a certain extent compared to 2023. Therefore, it is expected that the profit of the butadiene rubber industry in 2024 will actually increase compared to 2023; The downstream demand for butadiene rubber is expected to continue to grow slightly, and driven by profits, it is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will remain relatively high in 2024.

Overall, in 2024, the price of butadiene rubber may show a trend of high in the front and low in the back. In the first half of the year, there is not much pressure on the new production capacity of raw material butadiene, and the cost and demand aspects of butadiene rubber support the high price operation; In the second half of the year, the concentrated release of new butadiene production capacity will weaken the cost support for butadiene, and driven by profits, the supply of butadiene rubber will increase, and the price of butadiene rubber will gradually decline. It is expected that the high point of the butadiene rubber market in 2024 will occur in the first half of the year, with an expected high point around 14500 yuan/ton; The low point of the 2024 market is expected to occur in the second half of the year, with the low point expected to be around 11000 yuan/ton.

From January 8th to January 15th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 87250 yuan/ton, up 3.25%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has declined, reaching $12150/ton as of January 15th, up $500/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has maintained a relatively stable operation since October and continued until mid December. Starting from mid December, the antimony ingot market has continuously increased, reaching 87250 yuan/ton this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side has been affected by the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas. Recently, the situation of tight supply at the domestic mining end has been more obvious, and the reluctance of smelters to sell has further strengthened. Factory prices have been reported high, and the overall sentiment in the spot market is also strong. In terms of demand, with the digestion of inventory in the early stage and the reluctance of smelters to sell, the demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as antimony oxide has begun to increase. Inquiries about antimony ingots are active, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises generally have stocking needs. Currently, they are actively purchasing, and market trading has significantly improved. Overall, the antimony ingot market has a tight supply and good demand. With the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will maintain a strong trend in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market followed the overall upward trend of antimony ingots, with an increase of about 2000 yuan/ton during the week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have sufficient procurement plans in the near future and are actively inquiring about antimony ingots. The market supply is tight, and the market atmosphere is strong.

On January 14th, the antimony commodity index was 121.46, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a new historical high within the cycle, up 158.54% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

On January 14th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 14th, the non-ferrous index was at 1096 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 80.56% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.12), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were nickel (3.90%), antimony (3.25%), and lead (2.16%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 4 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were dysprosium iron alloy (-14.09%), dysprosium oxide (-13.71%), and metallic dysprosium (-13.33%). The average increase and decrease this week is -2.45%.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the main report of the stearic acid market was around 8180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to January 2nd. Starting from mid to late December, the stearic acid market has experienced a slight downward trend in a step-by-step manner. The market for raw material palm oil has rebounded, with prices continuously rising.

Raw palm oil: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on January 11th, the average market price of palm oil was 7266 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.64% compared to January 4th. The domestic palm oil market has returned to an upward trend. Due to the expected decrease in Malaysian palm oil inventory data, the external Malaysian palm oil futures market has risen for several days, boosting the domestic palm oil futures market. Spot prices have followed suit and fluctuated for nearly a week, with prices rising by over 4% compared to January 4th.

Market forecast: The palm oil market is recovering and prices are continuously rising. However, due to the drag of demand and the lack of strong support for the stearic acid market, there is sufficient supply of goods in the stearic acid market, and the factory operating rate is less than 50%. Downstream demand is weak. The confidence of business owners has weakened. It is expected that the domestic stearic acid oscillation consolidation will be the main trend in the near future.

In just the past year of 2023, global input inflation, escalating geopolitical conflicts, slowing growth in commodity demand, and increasing operational risks have caused the global economy to fluctuate. As a member of the end products of petrochemical and coal chemical industries, EVA plastic is also difficult to stand alone, and the overall market is deeply affected by the macro environment. On the other hand, the EVA industry has also gained opportunities for development in China in 2023. Can the heat of China’s EVA industry be ignited in 2024, and how will the market trend be? This forecast report will take you forward to the EVA market situation this year.

Consumer Review and Forecast

Firstly, let’s review the domestic EVA consumption situation from far to near. From the above figure, it can be seen that China has become a major consumer and importer of EVA. Although the proportion of import dependence on products is gradually decreasing, there is still a significant gap. The strong demand has driven the import of EVA to fluctuate and rise. Compared to the import volume, China’s EVA export volume is very small. It is expected that in 2024, the products of domestic local enterprises will still be mainly used to meet the domestic market demand, and the import and export pattern will remain unchanged.

At the same time, with the continuous advancement of infrastructure in various fields, EVA terminal products have achieved stable growth. Under the combined action of these factors, the demand for EVA will continue to increase in different sub sectors. According to relevant calculations, due to downstream demand, domestic EVA consumption will continue to grow at an annual rate of 8.4% in the next five years. It is expected that the domestic EVA consumption in 2024 will not be less than 3.4 million tons.

Prediction of Domestic EVA Consumption Structure

In the downstream consumer sector, traditional industries such as foam shoe materials and cables have seen slow growth in consumption in recent years, resulting in lower than expected overall demand and long-term pressure on the EVA market. In recent years, the photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly. Last year, the domestic photovoltaic power generation grid connected installed capacity was about 170GW or more, which is about 95% higher than the total installed capacity of 87.41GW in 2022. The production of photovoltaic power generation modules has significantly exceeded expectations, driving a surge in demand for photovoltaic film. The consumption of EVA photovoltaic materials in 2023 exceeded the forecast at the beginning of last year, and the overall consumption accounted for more than half.

Summary of Recent Domestic Photovoltaic Policies

Due to the constraints of international climate agreements and other legal provisions that require countries to bear corresponding carbon reduction responsibilities, the research and application of new clean energy will be long-term, and the market space of related industries will continue to expand. On the other hand, controlling carbon emissions is an inevitable choice for China’s sustainable development, and energy substitution is an important path. As a relatively optimal solution, photovoltaic power generation schemes have received strong policy support in recent years. According to the prediction of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation equipment will continue to grow this year, and the total demand for EVA will continue to rise due to the boost of photovoltaic film.

Supply and Capacity Planning

Domestic EVA production capacity forecast

At present, the demand for EVA in both domestic and foreign markets is vast, and it has become a business that domestic refining enterprises are eager to layout. According to the existing investment and construction plans with announced completion dates, China’s new EVA production capacity will be at least 900000 tons/year by 2024, and it is expected that the total domestic production capacity will reach over 3.35 million tons/year by the end of the year. If calculated based on the average domestic load of 85% last year, it is expected that the total production of local enterprises in China will reach over 2.84 million tons by 2024.

The domestic industry is rapidly expanding and competition is significantly strengthening. In addition, except for some coal chemical bases, EVA enterprises in China are mainly concentrated in coastal areas, with East China’s EVA production capacity accounting for up to 66%, and East and South China accounting for 90% of the total domestic consumption. The production and sales pattern is dual centralized. It is expected that the EVA industry will continue to compete for cost reduction and efficiency improvement this year, and further mature.

Market forecast

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the EVA market for the year 2023 began to rise at 13633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, but turned volatile and fell by the beginning of the second quarter. As of December 31, the EVA price was 11433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.14% for the whole year, and the overall trend rose and fell.

In 2023, the EVA market prices are under pressure and will decline. In the first quarter, the installed capacity of photovoltaics significantly exceeded expectations, and the demand for stocking drove the market up. After the positive demand for photovoltaic materials is phased out, the demand for traditional industries is low and overall is lower than expected. In the third quarter, prices rebounded slightly, and the seller camp had a willingness to raise prices, but they all suffered successive defeats after rebounding. Subsequently, the weak decline continued until the end of the year, and prices have fallen to a three-year low.

Based on the previous analysis, there are three prominent points in the domestic EVA market pattern:

Firstly, there is a double increase in supply and demand. China’s EVA production capacity is rapidly expanding, and the downstream photovoltaic industry has huge demand potential. The supply and demand of the EVA market will inevitably increase in 2024.

Secondly, policy support. In recent years, whether it is the pressure of international carbon reduction or the frequent support policies for the domestic photovoltaic power generation industry, the research and production of EVA products will continue to be promoted.

Thirdly, competition intensifies. EVA production in China is concentrated in the southeast coast, while consumption is concentrated in East and South China. The explosive expansion of production capacity will inevitably intensify market competition.

Overall, with the comprehensive promotion of the domestic economy and infrastructure construction, the EVA industry chain and the field of residential life will also achieve stable development. Under the combined action of these factors, the demand for EVA in different sub sectors will steadily increase. Especially in the photovoltaic industry, it will continue to maintain a high-speed growth momentum.

But as more new players enter at lower levels, the popularity of EVA products will inevitably increase. The increasingly fierce competition in the EVA industry will give rise to higher end and cheaper products, and the industry will gradually mature while achieving significant development. Therefore, the focus of the EVA market in 2024 may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on January 1st was 5433 yuan/ton. On January 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.23% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers maintain stable shipments, and some enterprises increase prices with raw materials. As of January 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5100-5500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fluctuated and increased this week, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has continued to rise this week. At present, the device is operating normally, and on-site trading is still acceptable, with transaction negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has been stable and rising recently. Although there is support on the cost side, terminal demand is weak, and the market still maintains a cautious attitude. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be adjusted and operated within a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 5, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7933 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 1, 2024. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 167 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-propanol in China remained stable and organized. As we enter the first week of 2024, the overall news of the domestic n-propanol market remains calm, with little change in on-site device operation. Downstream demand for n-propanol continues to be mainly for rigid procurement, with some small-scale stocking. The supply and demand transmission of n-propanol is stable, and the mentality of operators is good. The overall market volatility is relatively small. As of January 5th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is quiet and mild, with inquiries mostly for first-time orders. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust its range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in December 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated upwards, with the average market price in East China reaching 80500 yuan/ton on the 1st and 81250 yuan/ton on the 28th, an increase of 0.93%.

On December 28th, the antimony commodity index was 113.11, an increase of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 6.87% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.46 points (2023-15), and an increase of 140.76% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival, with a wide decline in prices in March, a stable trend in April and May, a seven week continuous decline in prices after June, an eight week continuous increase at the end of July, and a narrow decline in October and November. The recent trend is relatively stable.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market rose in December, with a quote of $11550/ton as of the 28th, an increase of $400/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market as a whole rose in December, with a slight recovery in overseas markets recently, which led to an improvement in the domestic market mentality and a slight increase in the spot market. At the end of the month, the downstream antimony oxide market slightly rebounded, and the export situation also improved compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. However, the downstream antimony oxide market still maintains on-demand procurement, providing strong support for the antimony ingot market.

In December, the antimony ingot market remained stable for the first half of the month and steadily increased in the second half, with an overall increase of 750 yuan/ton. The antimony ingot market has maintained a stable operation since October, with a strong supply-demand game mentality. It was not until the end of December, driven by downstream factors, that the stable trend of nearly two months was broken, and prices slightly increased. In terms of supply, recent changes have been limited, and mining supply remains tight. However, this news has been largely digested, and its impact on the market is limited. With the recent stabilization of the market, the mentality of smelters to be reluctant to sell and raise prices has begun to increase. However, the tight supply at the mining end has not been improved, and the overall supply of antimony ingots is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream antimony oxide market has recently slightly rebounded, and the export situation has also improved compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. Overall, at the end of the year, some companies had a demand for capital recovery and actively shipped goods, which led to an improvement in market trading sentiment. However, without clear guidance from the spot market, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate temporarily and steadily in the near future. We will pay attention to changes in downstream demand and the performance of overseas markets in the future.

On December 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1111 points, an increase of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 83.03% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Cobalt prices fluctuated and rose in December

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of December 29th, the price of cobalt was 220900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the cobalt price of 219000 yuan/ton on December 1st; The cobalt price has increased by 4.00% compared to December 7th at 212400 yuan/ton. In November, cobalt terminal consumption improved, but the production of ternary materials, ternary precursors, and cobalt sulfate still contracted. The industrial chain actively promoted the elimination of raw material inventory, and cobalt prices fell to the historical absolute bottom area. Supply decreased and demand increased, and cobalt prices rebounded and rose in December.

The demand for ternary battery terminals is recovering

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in November, China’s power battery installation volume was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month on month increase of 14.5%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 15.7 GWh, accounting for 35.0% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 29.1 GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed capacity. In November, the installed capacity of ternary batteries increased significantly, the proportion of ternary batteries rebounded, the terminal demand for ternary batteries rebounded, and the demand in the cobalt market increased.

With the continuous decline in nickel and cobalt prices, the cost gap between ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has further narrowed, highlighting the cost-effectiveness advantage of ternary batteries. It is expected that the sales of ternary batteries will increase in the future. Ternary batteries are favorable for cobalt market demand.

Mobile phone sales rebounded

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2023, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 29.162 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. From January to October 2023, the total shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 230 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The year-on-year increase in mobile phone shipments has boosted the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in November was 13600 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 88%; The cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to November was 103800 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased, and the supply of cobalt in the market has increased.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales of ternary batteries have increased, mobile phone sales have rebounded, demand for cobalt in the market is expected to rise, and the import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly. However, domestic production of ternary materials has contracted, the industrial chain has been destocked, and the supply of metallic cobalt is sufficient. Overall, cobalt prices have fallen to historic lows, bottoming out, and both supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.