According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, at the beginning of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5940.00 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.62%. The current price has decreased by 18.79% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In March, the domestic potassium nitrate market fell. From the figure above, it can be seen that the potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and falling for five consecutive months since 2023, and the market continues to decline this month. The raw material potassium chloride market has declined, with poor cost support. The potassium nitrate market has seen a light turnover and a decline in the market. According to statistics from the Business News Agency, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 5500-5900 yuan/ton (for reference only), which varies depending on the procurement situation.

In March, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fluctuated and fell: currently, the market sales price of domestic potassium chloride 60% crystal is about 3200-3500 yuan/ton. In terms of imported potassium, the price of imported 62% white potassium is mostly 3300-3500 yuan/ton, and the price of large particle red potassium is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. “Border trade has seen the arrival of white potassium in succession, and the supply and sales of goods are slightly difficult. The surrounding manufacturers mainly purchase on demand, and the demand has significantly decreased.”. Currently, the price of 62% white potassium at ports is mostly 3100-3150 yuan/ton.

Currently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is in a weak downward trend, with poor cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly fall below in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

The price of o-xylene fluctuated and rose in March

According to the price trend chart of ortho xylene of the business community, as of March 29, the price of ortho xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50% compared to the price of ortho xylene of 8000 yuan/ton at the end of February 28 of last month. The market of orthoxylene industry chain was supported by rising prices, and the domestic orthoxylene market rose significantly in March.

The market of raw materials mixed with xylene fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business agency, as of March 29, the price of mixed xylene was 7540 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared to the price of mixed xylene of 7450 yuan/ton on March 1. The price waveform of mixed xylene was adjusted in March. Overall, the price of mixed xylene rose in March, with a strong upward momentum for orthoxylene.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community, as of March 29, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8625 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the price of 8450 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell. The overall market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, with increased support for ortho xylene.

Future prospects

Analysts from the business agency Orthoxylene Data believe that in March, the market in the upstream and downstream of the Orthoxylene industry chain fluctuated and increased, while the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and increased, while the price of phthalic anhydride rose, with strong support for the rise of Orthoxylene. In the future, mixed xylene has limited upward support, phthalic anhydride prices are stagnant, and o-xylene costs have supported limited demand to stabilize temporarily. It is expected that the price of o-xylene in the future will fluctuate and stabilize.

Last week (March 20-26), downstream procurement was cautious, viscose staple fibers were generally quiet, and the factory was firm and stable in price. In the early stage, domestic high-end manufacturers announced that they would start rotating maintenance, which slightly boosted and supported the market. Some of the market just needed to sign orders, but the overall volume was not large. The startup rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has basically maintained, with the current overall industry load of about 77.68%. It is rumored in the market that a new round of price measures may be taken by major domestic factories at the end of the month, but the price adjustment intention of viscose factories is also relatively low, and the overall wait and see is the main factor.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 26, the factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13320 yuan/ton, which was in line with the previous price.

Market of human cotton yarn

Last week (March 20-26), the downstream market for human cotton yarn continued to operate steadily. The downstream market for human cotton yarn was still mainly in need of procurement, and the transaction atmosphere was relatively general. The commencement of construction was basically maintained, and the recovery was not as expected. Currently, it is difficult for the end market demand to significantly improve, and it is also difficult for yarn enterprises to have a strong position. They should adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, as of March 26, the average ex-factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17666 yuan/ton, which was in line with the previous price.

Aftermarket Forecast

The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market is limited. Large viscose staple fiber factories still focus on executing early orders. In the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, analysts from the Business News Agency predict that the prices of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn may continue to maintain stable operation in the short term, waiting for a new round of prices to be announced at the end of the month.

This week (March 17th to March 24th), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was reduced in a narrow range, resulting in a weak market atmosphere. The spot market price in East China was 16500 yuan/ton last weekend, down 0.3% from 16450 yuan/ton this weekend.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market continued to operate weakly, with manufacturers’ strong intention to hold down prices and focus on a small amount of replenishment, leading to a relatively sluggish market trading atmosphere. Recently, resource costs in Gabon have been low when arriving at Hong Kong. At the same time, after the decline in spot prices, traders’ financial pressure has increased, and their willingness to cash out has gradually increased, with a relatively clear trend of low price shipping. Tianjin Port Macao Block: 45 yuan/ton, Gabon: 41.2 yuan/ton, South Africa semi carbonated carbon: 33.1 yuan/ton. Qinzhou Port – Macao Block: 45 yuan/ton, Gabon: 41.3 yuan/ton, South Africa: 34.3 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. As can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, and after a slight increase in prices at the end of August, it has continued to stabilize temporarily. After a slight recovery in prices at the end of September, prices have remained stable for a long time since October, fluctuated slightly in November, decreased slightly after December, and continued to decline slightly after a temporary stabilization in January.

The price of European strategic small metal manganese has temporarily stabilized this week, reaching 2450 US dollars per ton as of March 24th, with a decrease of 100 US dollars per ton during the cycle. Recently, the market negotiation atmosphere is limited and there is strong wait-and-see sentiment.

This week, the domestic electrolytic manganese market continued to operate weakly, with the mainstream price in the domestic market ranging from 15000 to 15200 yuan/ton. The mainstream domestic factory price is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The market still maintains on-demand procurement, with overall trading slightly cold. This round of steel bidding basically went down, dragging down the market mentality and causing a slight decline in market prices. From a comprehensive perspective, downstream purchasing intentions have always been low, and market trading and investment are not active, and demand is still weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the overall market is weak, and it is difficult to achieve significant improvement in the short term. It is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will remain weak in the future.

This week, the silicon and manganese market has been operating weakly and steadily, with both north and south profits at low levels, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, and a gradually widening cost gap among various companies. Prices in the north have eased slightly, with a month-on-month decrease of around 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. The south is relatively strong. The futures market is operating in a narrow range of volatility, with its trading trend initially subdued and then rising. According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Agency, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was around 7000-7150 yuan/ton on March 24th, with an average market price of 7116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23%.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap, and powder (electrolytic manganese) in January 2023 was approximately 32683.5 tons, up 31.1% from December. In January 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 2200.5 tons, down about 56.02% from December.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak and declining. From March 17th to 24th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 9516 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.18%. The price rose 0.71% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 15.43%. The spot price of raw material pure benzene is weak and volatile, and cost support has weakened. At the same time, some manufacturers have increased supply, while downstream demand is general. The industry’s mentality is weak, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market has fallen.

On the cost side, the domestic market price of pure benzene has increased slightly, and the output has decreased. The pure benzene in East China port has been removed from the warehouse, and there are still maintenance plans for the supply devices in the later stage, easing the pressure on the domestic supply of pure benzene. Spot transaction: 6990-7180 yuan/ton; The Shandong market price traded at 6960-7070 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the unit operating rate of the cyclohexanone industry remained at around 70% this week, with a slight increase in supply.

On the demand side, caprolactam prices fell. The recent weakening of upstream crude oil prices has affected the purchasing mentality in the downstream market. The overall caprolactam market is still cautious. In addition, some enterprises in the north have increased inventory pressure and partially reduced prices for sales. The overall price center of the cyclohexanone spot market is tending to be lower. The demand side for cyclohexanone was negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, cyclohexanone analysts from the business agency predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market volatility will be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline was relatively stable this month. On March 13th, the market price of aniline was 12600 yuan/ton, and on March 17th, the price was 13000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.55% compared to last week.

2、 Analytical Review

Pure benzene market: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated and fell, with insufficient support for the market price of styrene. The offer for pure benzene moved downward, with limited transaction volume. Shandong Refinery is not willing to hold goods, actively adjusting prices to promote shipment, and the overall market price has moved downward. In February, due to centralized maintenance in the downstream, the market supply was relatively abundant, and prices were expected to be weak and volatile. On Thursday (March 16th), the price of pure benzene was 7208 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week and 12.09% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid decreased slightly this week. On March 13, the price was 2483 yuan/ton, and on March 16, the price was 2467 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 4.73% compared to last week, and increased by 12.04% compared to the same period last year.

“There is less supply and more demand for aniline, and there is no significant expectation of a short-term decline in the raw material pure benzene. It is expected that the aniline market will be strong in February.”.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

The logic of the aniline market fluctuation still lies in the supply and demand side. With the upcoming implementation of the planned overhaul in Jinling, the supply in the north will continue to enter a tight pattern. It is expected that the aniline market will be strong in the next cycle, or there will be expectations of continued growth.

Overview of price trend of metal magnesium

Market analysis of this week

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of the 20th, the average market price of magnesium ingots in China was 20600 yuan/ton, down 1.28% on a weekly basis. This week, the domestic magnesium ingot market continued to be weak, and the price of magnesium was affected by demand. The quotation was continuously lowered, with a decrease of around 300 yuan/ton.

Factory side

At present, the market sentiment is in a wait-and-see state, with few inquiries and a weak market transaction atmosphere. The manufacturer has a strong bearish sentiment and is positive in allowing prices and shipping, but the actual transaction situation is not ideal. Some manufacturers are unwilling to reduce their prices due to high production costs, and some choose not to quote for the time being.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 7592 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The ferrosilicon market is experiencing a situation of oversupply, while domestic and foreign demand is average. Due to an increase in electricity costs of around 0.2 yuan/kWh in the main production areas, the production enthusiasm of factories in some production areas has decreased, some manufacturers have avoided peak production, and some have reduced furnace shutdowns.

The blue charcoal market is operating steadily and weakly. Some blue charcoal enterprises have lowered their prices by 40-100 yuan/ton, while the rest of the market has not been adjusted, and will continue to adjust in the near future.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the inventory pressure of magnesium plants is significant, and the market demand is cold. The manufacturers have no choice but to reduce prices and sell goods. Superimposed by weak shocks in the raw material market and many negative factors, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will remain weak in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell slightly this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of acetic anhydride was 5275 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from 5300 yuan/ton on March 10; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 0.24% compared to 5262.50 yuan/ton on March 1. The price of raw materials fell and cost support was insufficient. The price of acetic anhydride fell slightly this week.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell this week

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart of the business community, as of March 20, the acetic acid price was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the acetic acid price of 3283.33 yuan/ton on March 3; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 1.59% compared to 3150 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell. This week, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell. The cost of acetic anhydride was not supported by rising costs. The upward momentum of acetic anhydride weakened and the downward pressure increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the Business Club, as of March 20, the methanol price was 2633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared to the price of 2620.83 yuan/ton on March 10. This week, methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated, the cost of acetic acid stabilized, and the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride stabilized. However, downward pressure on acetic anhydride remained.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business News Agency’s acetic anhydride data believe that the price of acetic acid has fluctuated and fallen this week, while the price of methanol has fluctuated and consolidated, resulting in a decrease in the cost of acetic anhydride. In the future, there is still pressure on the cost of acetic anhydride to decline, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize due to fluctuations in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 16440 yuan/ton. Compared to the March 12, 2023 (silicone DMC reference price 16960 yuan/ton) price, the price was reduced by 520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, this week (3.13-3.17), the overall domestic silicone DMC market showed a continuous weak decline. During the week, Shandong large factories successively lowered the shipment price of organosilicon DMC, with a cumulative decrease of around 800 yuan/ton during the week. Other factories also mostly followed the decline in organosilicon DMC quotations. As of March 17, the domestic organosilicon DMC market price reference was around 16000-16800 yuan/ton.

The main factor affecting the market trend of organosilicon DMC is demand. Currently, the overall downstream demand for organosilicon DMC is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is slow. The lack of follow-up on new orders is difficult to support the relatively high price of organosilicon DMC after its early rise. Therefore, the overall market situation of organosilicon DMC has eased and declined.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

Currently, although the supply side of silicone DMC has been actively regulated, the overall supply side on the market is still on the high side. The supply side has given some pressure, and the overall supply and demand support is relatively weak. According to the silicone DMC data analyst of the business agency, in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mostly be adjusted and operated in a weak and narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the BDO market continued to decline. From March 6 to 10, the domestic BDO price fell from 13160 yuan/ton to 12780 yuan/ton, and the price fell 2.89% in the cycle, 5.45% month-on-month and 55.25% year-on-year.

Some BDO devices were overhauled, and the market supply was reduced. At the same time, the bidding price of the factory was high, and the production enterprises were strong. However, due to the sluggish follow-up of terminal demand, most downstream industries are under pressure on costs, and have a weak intention to purchase raw materials and seriously depress prices. The decrease in supply did not offset the downturn in demand, and the focus of the market continued to decline.

In terms of cost, raw calcium carbide: the demand is low, the market performance of oversupply is gradually strengthened, and the market situation of calcium carbide is sluggish. In terms of methanol, the cost support is temporarily stable and the supply is relatively abundant. The methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. BDO’s cost side is negative.

On the supply side, the bidding and transaction of the factory side are fair, and the production enterprises mainly keep the price. BDO has a good supply side.

On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream industry was average, and the contradiction between supply and demand appeared, which aggravated the cautious bearish sentiment in the market. Nearly 80% of the PTMEG-spandex industry chain industry has started, and the overall digestion is good. The shutdown and maintenance of Kaixiang chemical plant in the PBT industry have not changed much since the commencement; The PU slurry and TPU industries in the polyurethane field started around 50% to 60%, and the orders just need to be followed up. The demand for short-term BDO is not significantly positive.

According to the aftermarket forecast, although the maintenance supply of the manufacturing enterprises has decreased, and the bidding price has remained in a state of price keeping, the demand-side performance continues to be weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, which suppresses the market trend. BDO analysts of the Business Agency predict that the domestic BDO market will be adjusted at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8233 yuan/ton, which was 2.95% lower than the average ex-factory price of 8483 yuan/ton on March 6.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8200 yuan/ton, which was 0.20% higher than the average market price of 8183 yuan/ton on March 6.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of March 10, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 8200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 8000-8200 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7500-8900 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer issued many early orders, and the overall market delivery and investment situation was general. Downstream procurement is prudent, and replenishment is mainly needed, and new orders are limited. As of March 10, the price quoted in Guizhou is about 29000-32000 yuan/ton.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. This week, the domestic phosphorus ore market overall ushered in a small rise. With the coming of the spring planting season, the demand for phosphate fertilizer downstream of the phosphate rock terminal will also gradually increase. The demand side will give more support to the phosphate rock. The supply in the phosphate rock field will continue to be tight. With the joint support of supply and demand, the overall focus of the domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock market will continue to close up.

Supply and demand side:

This week, the supply of phosphoric acid market was stable, the downstream demand was poor, and the market transactions were light. At present, phosphoric acid enterprises mainly supply orders from old customers, and terminal demand needs to be released.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the market of raw material yellow phosphorus has been in a bad trend recently, and the phosphoric acid market is dominated by wait-and-see. At present, the market has light trading volume and few transactions. In the case of weak cost and demand, it is expected that the price of thermal phosphoric acid will be weak and stable in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 176.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 44.35%. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on March 12 was 46.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.41% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 157.62% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support is good, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from 1925.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1902.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.17%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 19.64% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride is high, and the market price is 1205.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is good, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late March, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has a downward trend over the weekend, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a small fluctuation in recent years.

The propane market in Shandong continued to decline this week. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton on March 10, and 5835 yuan/ton on March 10, with a decline of 1.1% in the week, down 24.1% from the same period last year.

As of March 10, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ March 10th

East China/ 5850-5950 yuan/ton

North China/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

This week (3.6-3.10), Shandong propane market continued its decline, with the decline in the north greater than that in the south. The overall performance of the domestic propane market this week was weak, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Most of the mainstream market prices followed the market, and the upstream shipping willingness was obvious. As of this Friday, the mainstream price of Shandong propane market is 5750-5850 yuan/ton.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in March 2023, and propane was 720 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane is 740 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars/ton from last month.

In general, the import market is weak, the downstream products are not profitable, and the market is still bearish. It is expected to enter the weak and volatile operation of propane market next week.

The price of DOTP fell in February

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the average price of DOTP was 9975 yuan/ton, down 7.21% from the average price of 10750 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the plasticizer enterprises started to recover, the supply of DOTP increased, the price of raw materials fell, and the cost support of DOTP was insufficient. In February, the price of DOTP fell in shock.

The price of raw materials fell in February

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 28, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, down 14.06% from 10666.67 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), isooctanol enterprises resumed construction in succession. The supply of isooctanol was sufficient, the downstream demand remained weak, the inventory remained before the festival, and downstream customers sought bargains to replenish the inventory. In February, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, and the downward pressure on DOTP was greater. Later, the demand for isooctanol started to stabilize, the price of isooctanol stabilized, and the momentum for DOTP to rise remained.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the PTA price was 5597.27 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the price of 5763.64 yuan/ton on February 1. In February, PTA enterprises resumed construction in succession, downstream demand rose slowly, PTA orders were poor, and PTA prices fell in February; With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the PTA demand is expected to rise, the PTA price is expected to rise in the future, the DOTP cost support remains, and the DOTP rising power is expected to remain.

Downstream PVC market fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the PVC quotation was 6313.33 yuan/ton as of February 28, down 0.39% from the price of 6338.33 yuan/ton on February 1. In February, the spot price of PVC fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall. The performance of real estate data in February was poor, the resumption of work and production was less than expected, the PVC spot market transaction was tepid, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to take goods was not high. In short, the growth of DOTP demand was limited, and the support for the rise of DOTP was insufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, in February, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, fell sharply, the price of PTA fell first and then rose, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material fell; Downstream customers are looking for bargains to replenish their stocks. The DOTP demand in February was less than expected, and the DOTP demand support was insufficient. With the economic recovery, the price of isooctanol has stabilized, the price of PTA has stopped rising, and the demand for PVC has recovered slowly. In the future, the cost support still has a slow recovery of demand. It is expected that the DOTP will shake and consolidate strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. The price was 7370 yuan/ton on February 27; On March 5, the price was 7480 yuan/ton, up 1.49% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of crude oil, the overall trend of crude oil this week was fluctuating and upward. Russia has implemented a production reduction of 500000 barrels per day since March to deal with the western embargo and price ceiling on Russian crude oil goods. In addition, Russia’s European market share has almost disappeared, and it has been replaced by Asian long-distance destinations with higher cost and longer time. The export volume of seaborne crude oil to European countries fell to 113000 barrels per day. Crude oil exports to Nordic countries fell to 0, and exports to Mediterranean countries fell for three consecutive weeks, to an average of 162000 barrels per day.

Against the background of market worries about the global economic recession, there are still many uncertain factors in crude oil supply. The international crude oil supply as a whole has maintained a stable and tight state, among which, China’s crude oil consumption has always maintained a positive growth trend.

On March 5, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 78.16 USD/barrel, up 3.28% from the beginning of this month (75.68 USD/barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil was US $84.75/barrel, up 3.30% from the beginning of the month (US $82.04/barrel).

In terms of external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia showed an upward trend this week. On February 27, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 7470.5 yuan/ton, and on March 2, the price was 7563.5 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton year-on-year, or 1.24%.

In terms of downstream px, the px market was stable this week. The price of PX was 8500 yuan/ton on February 27 and 8500 yuan/ton on March 5, which was the same as last week.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China this week showed an upward trend, the price of mixed xylene in the upstream rose, the price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream rose, and the market in the upstream and downstream of the ox industrial chain warmed up. The price of OX was 8000 yuan/ton on February 27, and 8300 yuan/ton on March 5, with an increase of 3.75%.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rose slightly this week, with the price of 8376.2 yuan/ton on February 27 and 8530.6 yuan/ton on March 5, up 154.4 yuan/ton or 1.84% from last week.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Domestic and foreign oil prices gradually stabilized and recovered this week. By the close of Friday, Brent crude oil had risen by nearly 4%, WTI crude oil had risen by nearly 4.5%, and the main domestic crude oil contract 2304 had risen by nearly 3%. The international oil price is expected to return to the level of US $100 this year, and the recovery of Chinese demand is one of the most important driving forces. It is expected that the international oil price will rise before it falls next week.

The supply and demand situation of mixed xylene is improving. With the further improvement of the downstream PX, the domestic consumption of mixed xylene is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the terminal consumption of gasoline in spring and the peak demand season of the chemical fiber industry will also gradually open. The terminal consumption of mixed xylene is expected to be optimistic and the advantage will not be reduced. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 31550 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 31500 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.16% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. At present, the supply and demand of the yellow phosphorus market is deadlocked. On the whole, there are few transactions in the market, and the price is slightly reduced. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 30500-32500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 2, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1074 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of February 27. At present, there is little change in the supply and demand information in the phosphate ore field. The high market price is mostly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is generally stable. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business association believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly be stable and stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the change in the supply and demand information.

In terms of coke, up to now, the market price of coke in Shandong port has been temporarily stable, the quasi-first level ex-warehouse price of the port is about 2750-2800 yuan/ton, the first-level ex-warehouse price is 2850-2900 yuan/ton, the port price has been temporarily stable, the port inventory has continued to rise, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. In terms of freight, it is 230 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port on the 3rd, and 220 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port. The freight is temporarily stable.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid rose this week. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 8400 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 8483.33 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.99% during the week. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be dominated by wait-and-see mentality in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that at present, the market price of phosphorus ore and coke in the upstream is temporarily stable, and the cost support is acceptable, and the price of yellow phosphorus enterprises is mainly high. Downstream enterprises in the yellow phosphorus market are not highly receptive to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the supply and demand sides are deadlocked on the sidelines. On the whole, the market transaction is light. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will stagnate in the short term, with limited adjustment space, and pay attention to changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 19333.33 yuan/ton, 4.50% higher than the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.48% higher than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68% compared with the price of 24500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 10.30% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the domestic price of chloroform rose by 26.32%, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell by 1.71%. In general, the cost of R22 raw materials rose sharply, and the downstream trading entities were active in purchasing, supported by cost and demand, the manufacturers successively raised the factory price, which helped the market price of R22 continue to rise in February.

In February, the domestic trichloroethylene price as a whole stopped falling and rebounded, and the hydrofluoric acid price as a whole weakened and stabilized. In general, the upstream raw material price as a whole stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the domestic R134a price rose slightly supported by the small recovery of cost.

In terms of raw materials, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price weakened and stabilized in February, and the trichloroethylene price stopped falling and recovered. The rising cost will further support the future R134a price.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that under the support of both cost and demand, the domestic R22 price is expected to continue to rise in March, and the overall R134a price is expected to continue to be stable and strong in March.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on February 27 was 104.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 27.05% from the highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 23.40% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020.. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot: According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market continued to decline in late February, with a range of about 1.6%: on the 21st, the main market price was 1956.25 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, the main price was 1925 yuan/ton. At present, the water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have sufficient inventory, the demand for downstream purchase orders is weak, and the domestic polyaluminum chloride market is not supported enough, and the market continues to decline slightly.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the domestic hydrochloric acid price increased slightly by 1.22% in late February, and the mainstream market price was about 164-168 yuan/ton. From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, it has been slightly increased recently; The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly in the near future, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, and the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly. The downstream purchasing willingness is general. The domestic market price of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) in late February fell first and then went up: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 21 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28; Among them, the highest stage price was 6082 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the lowest stage price was 5964 yuan/ton on the 24th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.98%.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw material market is stable and slightly upward, but due to the continued weakness of downstream demand and the sufficient inventory of manufacturers from the year before, the supply is more than the demand is less, and the market support is unfavorable. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will continue to be weak in the near future.