From June 10 to June 17, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly in the whole week, from 7947 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8071 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a weekly increase of 1.56%.

In terms of crude oil, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran. There is little hope that Iranian oil will return to the market. The expectation of tight global oil supply still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world triggered concerns about economic recession. This week, international oil prices fell broadly. As of June 17, Brent fell by $8.89 / barrel, or 7.29%; WTI fell $11.11/barrel, or 9.21%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike of 75 basis points higher than expected, which was the largest interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the past 30 years. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectations of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. Both WTI and Brent of international crude oil futures fell to a two-week low.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On June 8, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical offers 9400 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 9800 yuan / ton, and Weilian chemical offers 9503 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and pure benzene in the external market fell broadly this week, with bad fundamentals and limited support for the industrial chain. Sinopec has not adjusted the price of pure benzene this week, but most local refining enterprises have lowered it. In terms of supply, the centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene has come to an end, and new devices have been put into operation. The inventory of pure benzene in East China has started to rise slightly recently, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in the future. In the downstream, the recent performance of styrene is weak. On June 10, the price was 11100 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 10900 yuan / ton, down 1.8% compared with last week. The market transaction is general, and the spot price is slightly lower. Affected by multiple negative effects, the pure benzene market began to decline this week. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude benzene, although the industrial chain weakened as a whole this week, the bidding price of crude benzene still increased slightly this week. In Shandong, the price was 8070-8075 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. As for coking enterprises, after the increase of coke, supported by the recovery of profits, the coking enterprises started well recently, and the overall supply of crude benzene was relatively stable. Affected by the recent rise in the price of pure benzene, the downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises have started to operate relatively high recently, and their demand for crude benzene is acceptable. However, under the pressure of the overall downward trend of the industrial chain, it is expected that there will be some room for correction of crude benzene prices in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 17, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. It was mainly purchased in the downstream. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly arranged and delivered by contracted customers. The number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, and the upstream remains high, The price of lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, and the cost pressure remains.

Upstream lithium carbonate: on June 16, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton). On June 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton).

Chemical commodity index: on June 17, the bulk commodity price index BPI was 1195 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 11.02% from 1343 points (October 19, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 81.06% from 660 points, the lowest point on February 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business club, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main factor in the short term, and the price fluctuation range is small. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1283.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1293.33 yuan / ton, up 0.78%. The current price fell 3.00% month on month, and the current price rose 0.26% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde is rising after falling recently, and the market continues to explore this week. As of June 16, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1260-1320 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has risen in a narrow range. Supported by the cost, formaldehyde has tentatively risen. It is difficult for downstream demand to improve. It is just needed to purchase. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market is slightly driven by the cost.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has risen recently. The continuous high price of raw coal has led to a good atmosphere in the whole industrial chain. At the same time, the high volatility of the crude oil market has also led to the rise of the chemical market on the macro level. However, after the lower receiving price rose slightly, the rising oil price led to a shortage of return transport capacity, and there is still room for freight to rise. The demand side performance was average, and the methanol spot turned to be stable and wait-and-see in the middle and late weeks of the week.

This week, the methanol market rose. Driven by the rising cost, the formaldehyde manufacturers intended to increase the quotation, but the operation of the downstream plate plant did not improve. The demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited, and the market transaction was general. It was difficult to increase the formaldehyde price, so the formaldehyde market was explored slightly.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has gone up, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants has continued to be weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency predict that the recent formaldehyde price rise in Shandong is mainly shock.

According to the monitoring of business club, adipic acid in China continued to rise this week (6.6-10). The weekly increase was 0.9%. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend is 12000-12300 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the price of upstream pure benzene rose after the festival, which brought support from the cost side. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the listed price of the manufacturer increased to support the market, while the terminal demand was still cautious, and the supply and demand remained basically balanced, which was also the fundamental reason why the adipic acid price did not rise significantly.

In terms of market supply, this week, adipic acid operating rate remained at the previous level, and currently remains at about 60%. At the beginning of the month, the listed part of the large factory was increased by about 500 yuan. The manufacturer’s inventory pressure is OK, mainly due to price hikes. In terms of commencement, temporary maintenance of some Shenma units this week; The load of Taiyuan Chemical Plant was reduced and started, about 80%; The load of Zhonghao unit is reduced to 80%; Hongding and Haili equipment continue to stop. There is no great pressure on the overall market supply.

Trend of adipic acid industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the adipic acid industrial chain showed a pattern of strong upstream and weak middle and downstream. The upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene increased to varying degrees, especially pure benzene, but adipic acid remained weak, indicating that the manufacturer’s profits fell slightly. In addition, the downstream PA66 continued its decline this week, and the terminal maintained a weak level.

Market trend of pure benzene upstream adipic acid

Market trend of cyclohexanone upstream adipic acid

Recently, pure benzene has increased significantly. After the festival, the manufacturer adjusted the price twice. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the weekly increase of pure benzene was about 5.46%. In addition, cyclohexanone rose well this week, rising by 2.93%. Bring cost guidance to adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: adipic acid downstream is still relatively weak. Downstream procurement continued to slow down. According to the monitoring of business agency, PA66 in the downstream of adipic acid fell by 2.9% this week. Due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry has decreased recently, but the overall range is limited. The spot supply in the market is abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. Although the health incidents in East China have been greatly alleviated and the logistics situation in many places has gradually recovered, the demand of domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The transaction on the floor declined, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he continued to give up profits. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business community believes that the upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone support is obvious. The manufacturer has a strong price support mentality, which will further form a strong support for the price of adipic acid. The pressure on the superimposed supply side is not large, and it is expected that the adipic acid price may still rebound in the near future. However, considering the weak demand, the market growth should be treated with caution.

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly in the first ten days of June. As of June 10, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 3275 yuan / ton, down 2.24% from 3350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In the first ten days of June, the spot price of methanol rose slightly, supported by the cost. According to the business agency, as of June 10, the price of methanol was 2657 yuan / ton, up 1.53% from 2617 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of the downstream refrigerant market of chloroform are shrinking, the price is weak, and the demand for chloroform is weak.

Analysts of the methane chloride data of the business society expect that the imbalance between supply and demand will be difficult to change in the short term, but in the later period, with the arrival of the peak air conditioning season, the demand for chloroform will increase or stop falling.

This week (June 2 to June 10), the market price of 1# electrolytic manganese rose. The spot market price in East China was 16550 yuan / ton last weekend and 16800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.51%.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market maintained the upward trend of price support, and the external quotation was basically settled. The manufacturers’ demand for goods was still concentrated on semi carbonic acid and Gabon ore. the transaction volume of semi carbonic acid in South Africa rose to 45 yuan / ton degree, that in Gabon was 59 yuan / ton degree, and that in Australia rose to 59.5 yuan / ton degree. The southern market also rose, and the price was basically in line with that in the north. On the whole, the downstream manufacturers are also relatively passive, mainly taking goods on demand.

The electrolytic manganese market rose slightly this week. The mainstream market price this week was 15400-15600 yuan / ton, up about 300 yuan / ton compared with last week. In terms of steel bidding, on the 7th, the bidding price of electrolytic manganese of North China steel plant in June was still 15800 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous month, but the overall quantity decreased by 250 tons compared with the bidding in May. The bidding price of electrolytic manganese for steel plants in Hebei is 16200 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton compared with that in May. The bidding price of steel has boosted market confidence. This week, the market price has increased slightly, but the overall transaction situation is general, and the market trading is relatively cold. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the manufacturers’ price support mentality is still strong. It is expected that the market price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, with limited upside space.

In terms of manganese and silicon: the trend of domestic silicon and manganese is good this week. Following the recovery trend of black and coking coal, the short-term high price of about 8650 yuan / ton hit again from the front line of 8500 yuan / ton, which is better than the spot end, while the spot end is restricted by the steel bidding price in June. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia region (the specification is femn68si18) was around 8200-8250 yuan / ton on June 10, and the average market price was 8225 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from Monday.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week fell from 15866.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 15366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.15%. On June 9, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 79.53, down 0.5 points from yesterday, down 24.67% from the highest point of 105.58 in the cycle (2021-09-16), and up 123.84% from the lowest point of 35.53 on December 11, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 15400 yuan / ton, down 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde made an ex factory offer of 15500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde had a sales quotation of 15200 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, the propylene market fell slightly this week, and the price fell from 8080.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7930.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.86%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 17500.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.96%. The neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream demand was good, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of June, the market trend of isobutyraldehyde may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of business club believes that the isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a small shock and decline in the short-term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 9, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was 22080 yuan / ton, which was 1380 yuan / ton higher than the price on June 7, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 20700 yuan / ton), or 6.67%. Compared with the price on june1,2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC is 22560 yuan / ton), the price is reduced by 480 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic organosilicon DMC market was generally weak and downward. On the first day of construction after the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong major manufacturers continued to adjust the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC downward, with an adjustment range of 1400 yuan / ton and a reference price of 20000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. So far, the organosilicon DMC has fallen into the era of 20000 yuan, and the quotations of other factories are mostly around 21000-22000 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere in the venue is weak, Some factories closed their offers without reporting. On the 7th, the performance of pre orders received by leading manufacturers after the festival was general, and the organosilicon DMC was also significantly reduced. The quotation was around 20500 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the organosilicon DMC was narrowed, around 20000-21000 yuan / ton. On the 8th, the market finally ushered in a turnaround. The quotation of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton, and that of some other monomer factories was increased by 500 yuan / ton. In the face of the long-standing low market situation, the organosilicon DMC industry had a strong desire to rise, and the voices of price support and wait-and-see coexisted. On the 9th, the price of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was increased by a wide margin again, and the quotation price of organosilicon DMC was increased to 22300 yuan / ton, and most other factories followed the rise, The mainstream market price rose back to around 22000-22500 yuan / ton. At present, the market is still closed, and a single discussion is also common. When the market was low in the early stage, the enthusiasm of some downstream companies to prepare goods has been improved. At present, the market is more cautious after rising.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since June, the domestic metal silicon market has been mainly operating with a slight decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 8, the reference price of metallic silicon was 17090 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.81% compared with that on June 1 (17230 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, whether the organosilicon DMC can be effectively transmitted to the downstream after the rise still needs the support of the demand side and the terminal’s ability to digest raw materials. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market will mainly operate in a large, stable and small way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in the supply and demand side.

On June 8, the acetic anhydride market was strong and stable temporarily

According to the monitoring data of the business club, on June 8, the price of acetic anhydride was strong and stable temporarily, and the market of acetic anhydride was stable temporarily. On June 8, the price of acetic anhydride was 8550.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of acetic anhydride of 8550 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The price of acetic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the overall market of acetic anhydride is stabilizing at a high level.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the price of methanol rebounded and the raw material cost of acetic anhydride rose strongly. Some acetic acid enterprises started their business stably, the supply of acetic acid was stable, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the sales of acetic anhydride was poor. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the customers’ willingness to purchase was general. It was mainly wait-and-see. The pressure of acetic anhydride decline was still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is poor, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride is still strong. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

This week (5.20-5.27), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 14050 yuan / ton, up 1.59% from 13830 yuan / ton on May 20.

The ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises has been raised. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 27, the ex warehouse price of Qilu cis-1,9-polybutadiene of Sinopec North China sales company was 13900 yuan / ton. In addition, the international crude oil was running at a high level and the price of raw butadiene was rising significantly, so the market offer of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose.

This week (5.20-5.27), butadiene prices rose sharply, and the cost side supported again. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the price of butadiene was 10735 yuan / ton, up 6.07% from 10121 yuan / ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market fluctuated upward. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 27, the price of natural rubber was 12910 yuan / ton, up 1.25% from 12750 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the commencement of downstream tires increased slightly to more than 60%, and there was a small replenishment of rubber. The international crude oil price was running at a high level, and the market bullish mentality increased.

Future forecast: the analysts of the business community believe that the rebound in raw material costs is supported, and the downstream start-up is slightly higher. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11633.33 yuan / ton, which was 2.05% higher than that on May 1. It was flat year-on-year in a three-month cycle, down 31.70% compared with the same period last year.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw propylene fell after rising, and the cost support changed from strong to weak. Under the support of the cost side, in addition, most of the on-site devices operated at a slightly low load, the supply side decreased, the shipment was good, the price of propylene oxide rose, and the subsequent price was restrained by the cold demand side. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene gradually fell, and the cost support gradually weakened. During the maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices, the downstream purchase was reduced, and the manufacturers’ inventory was gradually under pressure. The price fell. In the last ten days, the supply side was mainly stable, and the inventory was slowly accumulated. However, the manufacturers’ multi inventory pressure was controllable, which supported the market mentality. The downstream demand was cold, and the market was in a stalemate after a small rise.

Upstream propylene market rose and fell in May. According to the bulk list data of business agency, in May, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then declined. The overall market fell. At the beginning of the month, the market was 8414 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 8070 yuan / ton, a monthly decline of 4.09%.

The monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol showed that on May 30, the reference price of propylene glycol was 13000.00, an increase of 15.04% compared with May 1 (11300.00).

According to the propylene oxide analysts of business agency, propylene is currently in a weak position, the price of liquid chlorine is high, and the cost is supported to a certain extent. The inventory in the northern market is mostly pressureless, which supports the price support mentality of manufacturers. The demand side is waiting to follow up. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

In May, the domestic acetone market generally rose, with three stages respectively: the factory pushed up the market, the downstream demand shrank after phased procurement, and the cost support continued to rise at the end of the month, showing an “n” trend. During the month, the national acetone market rose by 8.63%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5650 yuan / ton on May 1, and 6137 yuan / ton on May 31, an increase of 8.63% in the month. By the end of the month, the offer in East China was about 6050 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6180 yuan / ton, and that in North China and the surrounding areas of Shandong was 6150-6200 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

After the May Day holiday, the port inventory increased, but the factories increased under the pressure of cost. After the holiday, the prices in some regions increased, and the operating rates in some regions increased. The prices before the holiday continued to decline. Many downstream factories did not replenish a large amount of goods. With the increase of upstream raw materials, acetone also increased, and the purchase intention of downstream factories increased. After the holiday, the repair news of Yangzhou Shiyou device, and the expected supply of domestic goods sources decreased, It rose to nearly 6000 yuan / ton in the three working days after the festival. After a round of replenishment, the offer was pushed to a high level. In the new week, the Hong Kong stock exchange continued to replenish a large number of goods, while the pressure of the goods holders increased significantly, and the offer was callback. In addition, the market trading entered a stalemate in the middle of the month, making it difficult to release the floor trading volume. In the later stage, with the continuous rise of international crude oil, the rising cost of pure benzene increased significantly, the phenol and ketone plant theory entered a state of loss, and the plant was also expected to increase. At the end of the month, the terminal MMA plant was replenished. Jiangsu Jiankun’s 150000 T / a MMA plant was planned to be put into operation. After market inquiry, the trading atmosphere was improved. At the end of the month, the pressure on the goods holders was reduced, and the market continued to rise with the help of the factory’s repeated increases.

The downstream bisphenol a market as a whole rose first and then fell. In late May, the bisphenol a market fell significantly. Near the end of the month, the on-site negotiation was 15000-15200 yuan / ton, the participation of low-cost intermediate traders increased, and the terminal factories also had inventory demand. It is expected that the market may improve after the holiday.

At present, the operating rate of acetone unit is close to 90%. Yangzhou Shiyou unit is expected to restart and recover on June 10. Tianjin Zhongsha unit is expected to have short-term maintenance in June. Other units are in normal operation. The supply side of domestic sources of goods has little change. The imported sources of goods are still dominated by contracts, and the replenishment should be close to 50000 tons. At present, the international oil price is high, and the cost is also high. It is still difficult for the factory to make profits, and there is no lack of expectation that the factory will support the price. The business club expects that the domestic acetone market will gradually improve, and the actual order situation will continue to be concerned.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1813 yuan / ton on May 1, and 1720 yuan / ton on May 31. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 5.15% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell after stable fluctuation this month. In the first half of May, the ammonium sulfate market fluctuated at a high level, and the market price rose slightly. As ammonium sulfate continued to rise before the festival, ammonium sulfate inquiries increased after the festival. Downstream enterprises and dealers are mainly cautious. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was mainly high. Urea continued to rise, which was good for ammonium sulfate Market. From the second half of May, the price of ammonium sulfate began to fall. The trading atmosphere on the floor was acceptable, but the new orders were limited. Ammonium sulfate enterprises cut prices slightly. There are many on-site inquiries, but the downstream and dealers are cautious in purchasing, which is inconsistent with high prices. The prices of coking grade and Hexian grade ammonium sulfate have been reduced by shock. As of May 31, the main factory price of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1650 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is about 1600 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of Hexian ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1740-1840 yuan / ton.

Downstream compound fertilizer market this month. The downstream compound fertilizer market was strong at a high level this month. Bullish sentiment increased. As the raw materials of compound fertilizer urea, monoammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer have risen sharply, the cost pressure has increased. Most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are selling at competitive prices, and some enterprises have suspended quotation, mainly issuing early-stage orders.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analysts of the business agency, there is no good news in the market for the time being due to the downstream resistance to the high price of ammonium sulfate and the weakening demand. The high price of ammonium sulfate has dropped. Caprolactam enterprises stopped production for maintenance or planned shutdown for maintenance, and the on-site supply decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate downward.

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of Shandong isooctanol rose in a narrow range this month, from 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.08%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 15.00%.

On May 30, the isooctanol commodity index was 92.16, down 0.73 points from yesterday, down 32.97% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 162.19% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong rose slightly this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

Insufficient upstream support and general downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell this month. The price fell from 8414.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8070.60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.09%, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% compared with the same period last year. The cost support is insufficient. Downstream DOP prices rose in a narrow range, with a downward trend at the end of the month. The DOP price rose from 11775.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 11912.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.20% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose slightly, and the downstream customers had good enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol this month.

Slightly volatile decline in the future

In the middle and early June, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene price has fallen slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream DOP market has a downward trend at the end of the month. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isooctanol has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the domestic isooctanol market may suffer a small shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price fell slightly this month. The average price of the domestic mainstream neopentyl glycol market fell from 17533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 700 yuan / ton, or 3.99%. On May 30, the commodity index of neopentyl glycol was 81.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.71% from the highest point of 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 26.24% from the lowest point of 64.26 on January 3, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Domestic neopentyl glycol market in May

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell slightly this month

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this month. The isobutyraldehyde price rose from 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 20.47%. High level consolidation at the end of the month. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply, which had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the impact of supply and demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and early June, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market was consolidated at a high level at the end of the month, the cost support was good, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price data

According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell slightly this week. On May 29, the average price in Shandong market was 4907.75 yuan / ton, down 1.51% from the price of 4982.75 yuan / ton on May 23.

On May 29, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 381.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.60% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 470.67% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries fell, market shipments improved, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The market price of metallic silicon has been lowered; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum was lowered. As of May 29, the price was 20503.33 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, and the downstream carbon enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood and purchase more on demand.

The petroleum coke analysts of business agency believe that the inventory of imported coke has increased this week, the supply of petroleum coke market has increased, the refineries have actively shipped, and the downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly on demand. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of may27,2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was set at 24080 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on may1,2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 26940 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 2860 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.36%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in May, the domestic organosilicon DMC market continued to decline as a whole. In the first ten days of May, the organosilicon DMC market operated in a volatile manner. After the big factory in Shandong lowered the price of organosilicon DMC for two consecutive days, it made a rapid correction on the 9th and 10th. The market was disturbed by this rapid rise and fall. The wait-and-see in the downstream became more and more intense, the goods were prepared carefully, and the demand transmission was slow. In the middle and last ten days of May, the domestic organosilicon DMC market opened a downward path. On the 16th, the big factory in Shandong quoted an organosilicon DMC price of 26200 yuan / ton, With certain market advantages in Shandong, some other factories also lowered the price of organosilicon DMC after their orders were less than expected. The gap between high and low prices in the market narrowed. Downstream demand was still cautious and the wait-and-see mood remained unchanged. On the 20th, Shandong big factories lowered the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 24500 yuan / ton again. Subsequently, the leading big factories also continued to adjust the price downward to 25000 yuan / ton, but the downstream replenishment was still normal, The effective support of organosilicon DMC was insufficient. At the end of the month, the market focus of organosilicon DMC continued to decline. On the 27th, the quotation of organosilicon DMC from Shandong big factory was 23400 yuan / ton, and the factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 23400-24000 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 11% in the month. At present, the operating rate of organosilicon DMC is on the high side, the supply on site is relatively sufficient, and the downstream mainly needs replenishment.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in May, the metal silicon 411# market generally showed a downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of metal silicon was 18570 yuan / ton on May 26, a decrease of 10.64% compared with May 1 (20780 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the substantial boost of downstream demand for organosilicon DMC has not yet been fully demonstrated. Some downstream companies are still waiting to see the market trend. In addition, the weak raw material side supports organosilicon DMC. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC Market will be dominated by weak operation. Whether the market trend will meet the inflection point needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of the mainstream light potassium carbonate in Shanxi was 9550.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 9700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.57%, the current price increased by 6.99% month on month, and the current price increased by 44.35% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate rose this week. As can be seen from the above figure, the potassium carbonate market has fluctuated higher in the past month, and the market continues to rise this week, mainly because of the shortage of goods in the market and the rumor of domestic potassium rising expectation in the market. Driven by this news, the potassium carbonate manufacturers continue to increase their quotation, and the market continues to rise. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 9400-9700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride is temporarily stable. At present, the price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5300-5400 yuan / ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. The arrival price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride is about 4400-5000 yuan / ton. The high price of potassium chloride can give strong cost support to potassium carbonate.

Recently, the stock of imported potash port is still declining, new border trade sources are gradually crossing the shore, and the market supply is still in short supply. It is expected that the price of potash will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

This week, the domestic EVA market entered the consolidation stage, and the price has not changed significantly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 24400.00 yuan / ton on May 17 and 24400.00 yuan / ton on May 24. During this period, the price remained stable, up 19.22% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 24, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Products, manufactor., model., Ex factory price

EVA., Yanshan Petrochemical, 18J3., 25000 yuan / ton

EVA., Beijing Organic, Y2022., 22000 yuan / ton

EVA., BASF Yangzi, V5110J ., 26200 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic EVA market entered the consolidation stage after rising, and the overall trend is relatively strong. At present, the market is mixed with bad news. The first is the cost. Recently, the international crude oil price has pushed up, the news is good for the market mentality, and the market price of raw material vinyl acetate has been adjusted at a high level. In addition, the demand for photovoltaic materials is good, which also brings some benefits to the market. There is no obvious fluctuation in the offer of petrochemical enterprises, and the price is stable. However, there are still negative factors. Due to the relatively high EVA price, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, cautious attitude, general enthusiasm for entering the market, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is weak, and the driving force for the continued rise of the market is insufficient.

On the whole, the current international crude oil price is high, and the cost has brought some support to the market. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises is controllable and their mentality is strong. However, the lower reaches have limited ability to accept high prices, the overall trading atmosphere is general, and the bad market is still obvious. The EVA market is expected to maintain consolidation in the short term.

This week (may 16-20), the bottom of domestic butyl acetate was weak, and the price was mainly flat. The main reason is that the cost support of acetic acid upstream of butyl acetate is weakened and the demand is relatively weak. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate rose or fell by 0% this week. At the weekend, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate is 9700-10000 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol both stopped rising and fell at a high level. According to the business agency, acetic acid fell by 0.20% this week and n-butanol fell by 0.33% this week.

In terms of acetic acid, the price of domestic acetic acid stopped rising and stabilized this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of acetic acid this week was 0.20%. Due to the sharp price rise in the early stage and obvious resistance in the downstream, the Guangxi Huayi plant resumed operation, and the market supply pressure was significantly relieved. However, after the price of acetic acid stabilized, there was no obvious downward trend, mainly due to the support of downstream demand, and the expected overhaul of large acetic acid plants boosted the price. Overall, the high cost effect of acetic acid still supports the downstream ethyl ester, and the decline of butyl may slow down due to the impact of high cost.

N-butanol: this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fluctuated slightly. At the beginning of the week, the high-end price on the floor was generally traded. Some n-butanol factories in Shandong made profit and shipped goods. The ex factory price of n-butanol was slightly reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was referred to about 9800-10000 yuan / ton. Then, in the middle of the week, the low-end price on the floor was well traded, and the n-butanol market rebounded slightly. On the 18th, the n-butanol market in Shandong increased steadily and slightly, with an increase range of around 100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9900-10000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of n-butanol in South China was still above 10000 yuan, with a reference of around 10300-10400 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is mild, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is good.

In terms of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, the units of large factories in North China are shut down, local supply is tightened, and the market is slightly divided. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Although the epidemic situation has improved, there are still restrictions on local transportation, and the rise of freight rates has suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason why the price of butyl has not rebounded sharply with the raw materials.

The domestic epoxy resin market fell significantly, mainly due to the decline of both raw materials and liquid resin market. According to the monitoring data of business society, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was quoted at 25800-26200 yuan / ton on May 23, which fell at the opening. The offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 25800-26200 yuan / ton in barrels, and the offer of solid resin Market in Shandong is 22200 yuan / ton.

region ., Specifications., offer

East China, E51., 25800-26300

Shandong Province, E12., 22000-22300

Material bisphenol A: wait and see at the opening of the new week and wait for the results of the on-site auction. The auction result of Huadong Petrochemical is that the self offered price of superior products fell by 400 yuan / ton, and the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere increased. Then the offer intention of the cargo holder fell. The downstream pays attention to the progress of the auction and market news. The mainstream offer in East China is up to 16000 yuan / ton.

The high level of epichlorohydrin market fell. The reference price of epichlorohydrin in East China market was 18400 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan from the previous week. After the shortage of epichlorohydrin, the downstream manufacturers did not follow up the high price of epichlorohydrin. At present, the price of glycerol is high, and the price has fallen to near the cost line of glycerol based cyclochlorine, so the intention of glycerol based cyclochlorine manufacturers to continue to lower is not high; However, at present, the gross profit of propylene process cyclochlorine is about 8000 yuan / ton. During the week, the propylene process cyclochlorine factory actively offered profits for shipment, further reducing the focus of negotiation in the cyclochlorine market.

The overall negotiation of epoxy resin market is cold, and the downstream demand side has not changed. It is expected that the epoxy resin will continue to be depressed in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of May 20, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 13450 yuan / ton, up or down – 5.28% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fluctuated this week, with an overall rise. The market was mainly supported by cost benefit, and pure benzene and crude oil boosted the spot price of styrene. The downstream demand is poor in the short term, and the market transaction is weak. It is expected that the styrene market may continue to fluctuate.

Acrylonitrile prices fell this week. In the early stage, there were many news about the resumption of work and commencement in China, and the supply increased. The demand is still lagging behind. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the field. In addition, the impact of health events on transportation is still ongoing. The downstream demand performance is general. The spot ex factory price is subject to multiple pressures, or will continue to fall.

The domestic butadiene market rose this week. Recently, some devices are still under maintenance, and the supply side is good. Domestic sources of goods are actively exported. Near the weekend, some production enterprises raised their ex factory quotation, which has a good response. Butadiene analysts of business society predict that the domestic butadiene market is expected to rise in the short term.

The overall support of the three upstream materials at the ABS cost end this week is general. In terms of industry load, the domestic production line resumed in the early stage, and the operating rate of ABS enterprises has increased compared with last month. The mentality of manufacturers has weakened and the factory price has been reduced. China’s health incidents still have a great impact on some parts of East China. Logistics and production are affected, which depresses a certain amount of demand. The goods are not smooth in the field, and the offer falls. Tensions in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remained, causing crude oil to rise in shock. However, the transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is general, and the market differences are large. At present, the main bad news in the market is the contraction of downstream demand.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials is weak, which is difficult to form a strong support for the cost side of ABS. The domestic spot supply is abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is higher than that in the early stage. The demand follow-up is not good. At the same time, the load of downstream household appliances and other industries decreases, superimposed with the impact of blocked transportation. The operators have poor confidence in the future market. It is expected that the ABS spot market may continue to be weak in the short term.

The price of orthobenzene rose this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene rose this week and the price of orthoxylene rose this week. On May 16, the price of o-benzene was 8400 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton or 2.44% from 8200 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week. The cost of orthobenzene rose this week and the orthobenzene market picked up.

Mixed xylene prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene of business society, the crude oil price fluctuated and rose this week, the price of mixed xylene stopped falling and rose, and the overall mixed xylene market recovered. As of May 16, the price of mixed xylene was 7660 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from 7610 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the price of 7330 yuan / ton of mixed xylene on May 1, it increased by 4.50%. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, the cost of o-xylene rose, the downward pressure of o-xylene weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices fell weakly

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in business society, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly. As of May 16, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8025.00 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of last week; The price of phthalic anhydride decreased by 1.38% from 8137.50 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. This week, the decline of phthalic anhydride price slowed down, the demand for o-xylene was weak, and the downward pressure of o-xylene remained.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business agency believe that the crude oil price fluctuated and rose this week, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and rose, and the raw material cost of o-xylene rose; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fell weakly, the demand for orthobenzene was weak, and the downward pressure of orthobenzene remained. Generally speaking, the cost of orthobenzene is rising, the demand is weak, and the price of orthobenzene is rising. In the future, the driving force for the rise of o-xylene is increasing, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will stabilize strongly in the future.

On May 18, the cost support was strong, the price of nylon filament rose slightly, the downstream customers had poor enthusiasm for taking goods, purchased on demand, the production and sales of nylon filament factory were general, and the inventory was high. All parties hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, the overall market is relatively flat, and the actual transaction price on the floor is negotiated flexibly.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d / 24F)

In terms of price, the price of mainstream nylon filament products increased slightly on May 18. According to the price monitoring of business society, as of May 18, 2022, the quotation of domestic nylon POY (excellent product; 86d / 24F) was 17825 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton from yesterday, with a daily increase of 1.71%; The quotation of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D / 24F) is 20120 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, with a daily increase of 1.00%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40d / 12F) was reported at 21000 yuan / ton, up 175 yuan / ton from yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.84%.

Raw material cost side: raw material caprolactam rose after the festival, and enterprises mainly sold at a high price. According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 13966 yuan / ton on May 9 and 14266 yuan / ton on May 17. It is expected that under the strong trend of raw materials, the price of caprolactam will rise in the short term.

Demand side: the downstream end market demand follows up slowly and purchases on demand, and the purchase volume is limited, resulting in the high inventory of nylon fiber.

Future forecast

From the perspective of supply and demand, the on-site supply of goods is sufficient. Although the goods are actively shipped, the enthusiasm of taking goods in the downstream terminal market is slightly cautious. Most customers set production by sales and just need to take goods. Business analysts expect that the nylon filament market is difficult to recover in the short term and will remain low. However, with the support of good cost side, the price follows the raw material market.

DOTP prices fell first and then rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOTP price fell first, then rose and then stabilized this week, and the overall DOTP market fluctuated and stabilized. As of May 16, the price of DOTP was 12050 yuan / ton, down 0.52% from 12112.50 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week. The pressure on raw materials remained this week, the price of DOTP fell first and then rose, and the market shock of DOTP stabilized.

The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell first and then rose this week. The overall isooctanol market fluctuated and adjusted. As of May 16, the isooctanol price was 12566.67 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from 12666.67 yuan / ton on May 9, and up 1.89% from May 1. After the replenishment, the price of isooctanol fell rapidly this week. From mid May, some isooctanol enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, the supply of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose, and the overall isooctanol market stabilized. The price of isooctanol has stabilized, the cost of DOTP has stabilized, and the driving force of DOTP price rise remains.

PTA prices stopped falling and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price stopped falling and rose this week, and the overall PTA market rebounded and rose. As of May 16, the PTA price was 6835.45 yuan / ton, up 4.39% from the PTA price of 6548.18 yuan / ton on May 9; Compared with the PTA price of 6427.27 yuan / ton on May 1, it increased by 6.38%. The crude oil price was adjusted at a high level. PTA price rose this week, DOTP cost support was large, DOTP had a strong positive momentum, and the downward pressure remained.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high price of crude oil was adjusted, PTA price fluctuated and rose, the replenishment of customers decreased this week, the price of isooctanol fell, the equipment maintenance increased in the middle of the year, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rising, the overall driving force for the rise of DOTP cost remained, and the price of DOTP stopped falling and rebounded. In the future, the prices of raw materials PTA and isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of DOTP raw materials stabilized, the downward pressure of DOTP weakened, and the upward momentum remained. It is expected that the price of DOTP will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly this week, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol increased from 17333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 17433.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.58%. On May 15, the commodity index of neopentyl glycol was 84.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.91% from the highest point of 103.61 in the cycle (2021-09-22), and up 30.75% from the lowest point of 64.26 on January 3, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers increased slightly this week: the distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17800 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Zibo de synthetic Feng neopentyl glycol sold at 17000 yuan / ton over the weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The distribution price of Chongqing Kaiyin Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 15166.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 15366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.32%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In mid May, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol in business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated significantly from May 6 to 13. The price of MTBE remained at 7550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7400 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 1.99% during the week, and the price increased by 3.32% month on month and 24.72% year-on-year.

In the first half of this week, because the price rose to a high level, encountered downstream resistance, and the demand weakened. In addition, the prices of other gasoline raw materials were low, MTBE merchants’ sales were blocked and had no choice but to adjust one after another, with a decline of about 200-400 yuan / ton. As the price fell to a low level, the willingness of downstream businesses to replenish on bargain hunting rose. In addition, it coincided with the sharp rise of international oil prices and the rise of gasoline prices. MTBE businesses had strong bullish willingness and followed the rise of prices.

In terms of methanol, macro support may be limited. Basically, the supply may still be abundant, the marginal demand is expected to improve, and the domestic methanol market may be stable in the short term.

Comparison chart of crude oil and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and MTBE price trend of Business Club:

Comparison chart of gasoline and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of diesel and MTBE price trend of business society:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on May 12, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by US $11.59/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $1198.49-1200.49/t. The closing price of European MTBE market increased by 44 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at 1443.99-1444.49 US dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by US $37.70/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at US $1612.12-1612.47/ton (454.12-454.22 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1198.49-1200.49 USD / T, USD 11.59/ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1443.99-1444.49 USD / T, USD 44 / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1612.12-1612.47 USD / ton, 37.70 USD / ton

In terms of enterprises, Shandong Chengtai new material 200000 t / a isomerization unit is being shut down, and at present, it mainly sells a small amount of inventory. MTBE offers 7400 yuan / ton. Shi dashenghua’s MTBE quotation is 7400 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation and 350000 t MTBE unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance on December 27, and the specific start-up time is to be determined. MTBE will not be shipped temporarily and there is no quotation. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical is 7400 yuan / ton. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was 7400 yuan / T.

Enterprise, Device, Price

Chengtai chemical /, 200000 t / a isomerization unit is under maintenance, 7400 yuan / ton

Shi dashenghua, The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally, 7400 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical, 400000t / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation and CO production 350000t unit started normally, No shipment for the time being

Lihuayi, 125000 T / a isomerization MTBE unit operates normally, 7400 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical, 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit starts normally, 7400 yuan / ton

Driven by the favorable market of crude oil and gasoline, the price rebounded after falling and the transaction improved. In addition, some subsequent refineries have been started one after another, and the market demand still exists. However, due to the general trend of gasoline, the demand for raw materials is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the improvement is limited. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 12, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 11433 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 7, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 11100 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 333 yuan / ton, or 2.39%. Compared with the price on May 1, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 11300 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 133 yuan / ton, or 1.18%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the domestic propylene glycol market showed a downward trend in the first week of May. At the beginning of this week, the transaction volume of propylene glycol market was light, the downstream demand was limited, and the propylene glycol market continued to decline. On the 10th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol fell to the current low point in May, with the price near 11116 yuan / ton and the low-end price around 10850 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, on the 11th and 12th, the propylene glycol market finally warmed up. Some propylene glycol factories in Shandong raised the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 200-500 yuan / ton. The increase of propylene glycol foreign trade export gave the operators confidence, the trading atmosphere on the floor improved, the factory inventory pressure decreased, and the transaction focus of propylene glycol increased. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol is around 11300-11600 yuan / ton. At present, the atmosphere in the propylene glycol venue is mild, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is relieved.

The price of propylene oxide temporarily fell by 4.04% compared with that in the upstream market on May 11. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the price of liquid chlorine is rising, the pressure on the cost side remains, most of the devices in the field operate at a slightly low load, and the supply side is reduced, but the demand side is cold, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is general, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be stable.

Future trend analysis

At present, the consolidation operation after the rise of the raw material end gives propylene glycol cost support, and the atmosphere in the propylene glycol field has also warmed up. The propylene glycol data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly stable, medium and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

After the May Day holiday, the domestic propane market first rose and then declined, with limited fluctuation range, and the price focus of Shandong market moved up slightly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6520.75 yuan / ton on May 1 and 6578.25 yuan / ton on May 7, with an increase of 0.88% and 48.05% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 7, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, May 7th

South China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton

North China, 6500-6650 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6550-6610 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6300-6600 yuan / ton

After the May Day holiday, the domestic propane market developed first and then restrained. The price of Shandong market was mainly sorted out, and the fluctuation range was limited. During the holidays, due to the positive rise of international crude oil, the propane market increased. After the festival, the market was bearish and the price weakened. In May, CP prices were introduced, and both propylene and butane fell sharply, bringing bad news to the domestic market. In addition, the current terminal demand is limited, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited. The supply side is relatively sufficient, which brings some restraint to the market.

Saudi Aramco announced in May 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 850 USD / T, down 90 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 860 US dollars / ton, down 100 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

At present, the international crude oil price has been rising continuously, which has brought some positive support to the cost side. The market prices in the north and South are relatively strong, and most of them are sideways. However, the domestic market supply is relatively sufficient, the demand has not improved significantly, and the market negative factors are more obvious. It is expected that the price of propane market may weaken in the short term.

After the festival, the price of orthobenzene remained stable temporarily

As can be seen from the price trend chart of o-benzene in business society, the price of o-benzene is temporarily stable after the festival, and the price of o-xylene is stable after the festival. On May 9, the price of orthobenzene was 8200 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with 8200 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the demand for orthobenzene was weak and the orthobenzene market was flat.

After the festival, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and rose

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of crude oil rose sharply after the festival, the price of mixed xylene rose violently, and the overall mixed xylene market recovered. As of May 9, the price of mixed xylene was 7610 yuan / ton, up 3.82% from 7330 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the price of mixed xylene rose, the cost of o-xylene rose, the downward pressure of o-xylene weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices continued to fall

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart of business society, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline after the festival, and the phthalic anhydride price fluctuated and fell. As of May 9, the phthalic anhydride price was 8062.50 yuan / ton, down 0.92% from 8137.50 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the demand for o-xylene was weak, and the pressure of o-xylene decline was great.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business society believe that after the festival, the price of crude oil rises, the price of mixed xylene falls, and the raw material cost of o-xylene rises; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fell, the demand for o-benzene was weak, and the pressure of o-benzene decline was great. Generally speaking, the cost of orthobenzene is rising, the demand is weak, and the price of orthobenzene is temporarily stable. In the future, the upward momentum of o-xylene is weakened, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will stabilize in the future.

After the festival, DOP prices rose first and then fell

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices rose first and then fell after the festival, and the DOP market stabilized. As of May 9, the DOP price was 11950 yuan / ton, up 1.49% from 11775 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month; The price of DOP fell by 1.44% compared with that on May 6. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and stabilized.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic isooctanol price rose first and then fell after the festival. The overall isooctanol market fluctuated and stabilized. As of May 9, the isooctanol price was 12666.67 yuan / ton, up 2.70% from May 1. After the festival, downstream enterprises replenished more stocks, shipped more isooctanol, and the price of isooctanol rose sharply. After the replenishment, the price of isooctanol fell rapidly, and the overall isooctanol market fluctuated and stabilized. The price shock of isooctanol stabilized, the cost of DOP stabilized, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure remained.

After the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to decline after the festival, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated. As of May 9, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8062.50 yuan / ton, down 0.92% from 8137.50 yuan / ton on May 1. In May, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline, fluctuated and fell, the downstream plasticizer manufacturers started to adjust, the demand for phthalic anhydride was insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. The cost of DOP raw materials has decreased, and the pressure of DOP price decline is great.

Future expectations

According to DOP data analysts of business society, after the festival, the replenishment of downstream enterprises increased, the price of isooctanol rose sharply, the cost of plasticizer DOP rose, and the price of DOP rose; The downstream start-up slowly warmed up, the downstream demand of DOP warmed up, and the downward pressure of DOP was weak. After the festival, the stock of downstream customers increased, and DOP prices rebounded and rose. In the future, after the stock replenishment after the festival, the plasticizer price fluctuated and rose. After the stock replenishment, the plasticizer price fell rapidly. The raw material price of the overall plasticizer industry chain fluctuated and rose, and the demand stabilized. It is expected that the DOP price fluctuated and stabilized in the future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose this week. By the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11720 yuan / ton, up 1.38% from 11560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 11.62% year-on-year.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated by various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price. The actual transaction price in the market this week is mainly rising. Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising.

Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is slightly tight, and some hydrofluoric acid units in the field are still in shutdown. However, the price trend of fluorite, the raw material upstream of hydrofluoric acid, has risen. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11100-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 11000-11400 yuan / ton. Due to the recent rise in the price trend of domestic sulfuric acid, the market price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, and the downstream construction remained at a low level. However, the on-site procurement was general, the transaction was limited, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite rose slightly. By the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2605.56 yuan / ton. The price trend rose slightly this week. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was slightly tight, and the domestic fluorite devices were under normal operation. Due to the epidemic, some devices have not been started yet. In general, the on-site supply was slightly tight, and the domestic fluorite price rose slightly this week. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2550-2650 yuan / ton. Due to the rising price trend of fluorite, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the venue has increased slightly.

This week, the price of downstream refrigerant products remained low, the operating rate of the on-site refrigerant industry remained low, and the recent sales situation of the automobile industry was general, but the production of refrigerant manufacturers was general, the refrigerant market was depressed, the demand was mainly purchased on demand, and the market of the refrigerant industry did not change much. On the whole, the refrigerant market remains at a low level, the price trend of chloroform is temporarily stable, and the cost of the refrigerant industry has little change. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable. The operation of major refrigerant mainstream manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand does not improve. The demand in R22 market application field increases, and the enterprise quotation remains stable. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 17000-19000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a is temporarily stable, the price of trichloroethylene remains low, the cost support drops, the market price trend of R134a is temporarily stable, and the focus of trading is low. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 24000-25000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is mostly profitable, and the downstream refrigerant market is depressed. Due to this, the price of hydrofluoric acid has little increase.

From the industrial chain chart, the market of fluorine chemical industry has improved, the price of raw material fluorite has increased slightly, coupled with the rise of raw material price of sulfuric acid, and the price of downstream refrigerant products has fluctuated. However, recently, some domestic hydrofluoric acid units have not been started up, and the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business society, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may be stable.

The domestic epoxy resin market is stable as a whole, the liquid resin market is running firmly, and the offer is stable within the week, but the low-end price of real orders is reduced. In terms of solid resin, the cost support is strong, but the terminal demand is difficult to be significantly improved, and the transaction has not been significantly adjusted. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China was 25400-25800 yuan / ton on April 22, which was stable during the week and the market was cold. As of press time, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 25300-25800 yuan / ton, and the offer of solid resin Market in Shandong is 22500-22800 yuan / ton.

Bisphenol A, the raw material, has been in strong operation. As of the press release, the market negotiation is 16750-16800 yuan / ton, and Changchun chemical industry is 16800 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan is 16500 yuan / ton.

Epichlorohydrin market fell. Recently, the market of raw material propylene has been sorted out and operated. The price of raw material glycerol is mainly stable, and there is a certain support on the cost side. The cargo holders are actively shipping, and the downstream demand has not been significantly improved. The enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement before the festival is not high. Under the restriction of demand, the high-end negotiation is weak, and the market of epichlorohydrin is weak.

The overall negotiation of the epoxy resin market is cold, and the downstream demand side has not improved. The main reason is that the current logistics resistance is large and the transaction difficulty is increasing. It is expected that the epoxy resin will be consolidated in the short term.

In April, the domestic polysilicon market continued the trend of the first three months, and the price continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, polysilicon rose by 3.16% on a monthly basis. The main reason for the rise of silicon material is still the tight supply and the support of rising prices of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers. The high opening rate of silicon wafer ensures the stable purchase volume; Due to the improvement of profits of battery chip and component manufacturers and the high price of imported silicon materials. At the end of the month, the price range of polysilicon material is 205000-215000 yuan / ton, and the price range of single crystal material is 245000-260000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, the supply of silicon material enterprises is stable this month. The operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers is relatively high. There are 12 domestic polysilicon production enterprises in production. In mid April, two of them carried out equipment maintenance and repair, which affected part of the output. In addition, some enterprises, such as Daquan and Yongxiang, expanded their production and released the supply increment. After offsetting the two, the overall supply increased slightly compared with the previous month. At present, the supply is still tight compared with the relatively strong demand.

The orders of most large factories in may have been signed at the beginning of the month, and some scattered orders have flowed out, continuously pushing up the market reference price of silicon materials. At the end of June, enterprises successively signed new orders in June, and some enterprises signed them, and the demand increased unabated. The continuous shortage of supply is the main reason for the continuous rise of silicon material price.

In terms of intermediate products, large silicon wafer manufacturers continued to raise prices this month. On April 13, Longji raised the quotation of some silicon wafers. On April 27, Longji and central raised the quotation of some silicon wafers again. At present, the price of silicon wafer has reached an unprecedented high, which forms a strong support for silicon material and puts great pressure on downstream battery chips and components. In the middle and late ten days, silicon wafers operated at a high level, and the price tended to stabilize. Near the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of M6 rose to about 5.72 yuan / piece, that of M10 rose to about 6.86 yuan / piece, and that of G12 rose to about 9.05 yuan / piece.

Battery chips and components: this month, the market demand for battery chips and components is mainly stable. After the price rise of battery chips in the middle of the month, the market is still in the process of gradual acceptance. After the price adjustment of silicon chips at the end of the month, the price adjustment of battery chips does not appear temporarily, and the profits of enterprises are squeezed again. The transportation is limited due to the current epidemic, and the shortage of downstream components also contributes to the recovery of battery chips. However, the demand for single crystal M6 size silicon wafer is relatively flat, the demand for M10 and G12 size is strong, and the price support is sufficient. On the component side, the price changes little. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic, it is difficult to get the goods, so we have to control the production capacity; Moreover, terminals generally resist high prices, which suppress some demand.

In the aftermarket forecast, polysilicon analysts of business society believe that the overall performance of the photovoltaic industry is still strong, and the shortage of silicon material supply is difficult to ease in the short term. In particular, some manufacturers still have maintenance plans in May, which will keep the supply tight. The price of high silicon material will be significantly supported. However, the upstream and downstream game situation has been formed. Although the silicon material manufacturers still take the initiative in the bargaining power, the downstream resistance to high prices will put pressure on the rising trend of silicon material. The market is expected to slow down in the near future.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose in April. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4600 yuan / ton, up 5.02% from 4380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 54.36% year-on-year.

In April, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably, the supply of goods in the field was normal recently, the delivery of goods in the field was general, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, the coal price in the upstream of the terminal was stable, the price of liquid ammonia rose, and the downstream demand was general. The price of ammonium nitrate rose due to the rise of raw materials. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still many production stops in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry. In addition, the sales of civil explosive industry has come to an end, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate Market is higher supported by raw materials. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5000 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose in April. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2450 yuan / ton, up 5.76% from 2316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2500 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the field is rising. In April, the price trend of nitric acid market is rising, and the price trend of raw nitric acid is rising, which has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is rising.

The price trend of domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream in April continued to rise. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 5066.67 yuan / ton, up 2.63% from 4936.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The domestic liquid ammonia Market recovered, the prices in Shandong and Hebei continued to rebound, and the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4900-5100 yuan / ton. It is mainly due to the reduction of supply in the region, the failure of some units, and the continuous rise of the downstream urea market. Enterprises turn more urea, resulting in the tightening of ammonia release and the rise of liquid ammonia price. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia forms a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rises accordingly.

Recently, the spring ploughing has come to an end. The market demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, but the market price of raw materials remains high, which has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate Market. However, the sales of civil explosive industry has weakened. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain stable in the later stage, or will change little.

According to the data of business agency, as of April 29, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6310.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.16% from 6320.00 yuan / ton on April 25.

On April 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 127.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.47% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 177.34% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

International crude oil prices fluctuated and rose, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of April 29, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 6200 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 6300 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

Under the background that the international crude oil price fluctuates and rises, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disturb the market, it will aggravate the expectation of tightening oil supply in the future. In addition, in terms of other supply factors, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has continued the gradual and small increase in production policy, which will stabilize the tightening of crude oil supply, with little effect. The OPEC monthly meeting may be held on May 5. Considering the binding interests of OPEC and its Russian allies, the possibility of policy change is small. The market generally expects that there is a high possibility of a small increase in production in June. On the whole, the trend of crude oil prices rose in April.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of April 27, Singapore’s fuel inventory decreased by 3.959 million barrels to a seven month low of 19.144 million barrels. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 268000 barrels to 13.266 million barrels, the highest since March 30. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 1.98 million barrels to a three week low of 7.043 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price fluctuates, and the cost of ship fuel market is high. At present, the ship fuel market is mainly stable temporarily. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of ship fuel market is blocked, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the market is just in need, and the overall transaction is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6200-6300 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6300-6400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rebounded slightly at the end of the month after a wide decline this month. On April 1, the price of mixed xylene was 7720 yuan / ton; On April 28, the price was 7330 yuan / ton, down 5.05% from the beginning of the month and up 25.3% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Affected by public health incidents, logistics and transportation in many places in China are blocked, some reservoir areas in East China are blocked, market transactions are light, and the mentality of operators is pessimistic. As the demand for xylene in the lower reaches of Shandong rebounded, the demand for xylene in the middle and lower reaches of Shandong rebounded in the second half of the year. However, there was no active air filling operation in the downstream before the festival, and the price fell slightly at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, under the influence of the political situation in Russia and Ukraine, crude oil has experienced a sharp rise and fall, and the EU embargo on Russian oil has become a market concern. As of April 28, Brent fell 0.32 USD / barrel, or 0.3%; WTI rose $5.08/barrel, or 5.07%.

In terms of external trading, mixed xylene in Asia fell in shock this month. On April 28, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 1080.5 US dollars / ton, down 24 US dollars / ton month on month, down 2.17%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 1096.5 US dollars / ton, down 22 US dollars / ton month on month, down 1.97%.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month and fell broadly at the end of the month. The price was 9300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 4.3% compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 39.06% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China fell broadly this month, with the price at 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8200 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 8.89% from the beginning of the month and up 38.98% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose sharply in the second half of this month after a shock decline. The price was 8775 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8800.8 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.29% over the beginning of the month and 18.04% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

The cost side (crude oil), the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the uncertainty of the EU on the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil are still the main factors affecting the oil price, and the trend of crude oil in May continues to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on output, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The short-term logistics transportation and demand still restrict the trend of mixed xylene. If the logistics recovers in the later stage, the demand for mixed xylene may improve, and the price may rise. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene price.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the copper price first rose and then fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 73670 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 74075 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 0.55% and a year-on-year increase of 4.45%.

According to the current chart of business society, in April, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price in two months, indicating that everyone was optimistic about the future market of copper price.

According to LME inventory, copper inventory rebounded in April.

Macro aspect: according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in March, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. Due to the complex international situation and repeated domestic epidemics, China’s macro economy is facing unprecedented pressure, macro risks still exist, non-ferrous metals are under obvious pressure, and the price fluctuation range is increased.

In terms of supply: since March, there have been outbreaks in many places in China. Measures such as 24-hour nucleic acid in the market and nucleic acid at the scene of high-speed intersections have been introduced one after another. The logistics is not smooth, resulting in the overstock of inventory in the factory and in transit of some enterprises. The short-term social inventory will continue to increase, which will suppress the price of raw materials.

Demand: the impact of the epidemic on downstream and end consumption will continue to ferment. Some cities still have strict prevention and control policies. Some downstream processing enterprises are facing problems such as insufficient raw materials and difficult capital turnover. The operating rate of enterprises has declined and the market consumption has been significantly affected.

From the above situation, it has always been the traditional peak consumption season from March to April, but this year’s “gold, silver and four” did not appear. Under the continuous interference of the domestic epidemic, the market demand is weak, the logistics transportation in many places is blocked, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is far lower than that in the same period last year. On the eve of the domestic May Day holiday, the downstream terminal is expected to have a wave of demand for goods, or support the copper price. However, the hawks of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and shrinking tables at the weekend suppressed the price. Overall, the market uncertainty is still high. The epidemic situation may improve in May, and the copper price or shock is expected to be strong.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly in April, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of April 27, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 26750 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 13.71% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of domestic adipic acid gradually fell in April, and the market stopped falling and stabilized at the end of the month. In the middle of the month, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell, the supply of adipic acid increased, while the terminal demand was still cautious and the transaction was not ideal, resulting in the continuous weak operation of adipic acid. The domestic supply of adiponitrile is abundant, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid has a poor market, the market supply of adiponitrile is abundant, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. At present, there are limited changes in the operating rate of the industry, and the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises is generally in high dynamic balance. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, which has a certain suppression on the profits of PA66 enterprises. In terms of port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In addition, at present, the impact of domestic health events on East China has not ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some downstream factories in China has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand has become more and more serious, and merchants have great shipping resistance. On site transactions declined, the seller’s mentality was poor, and the operation continued to reduce prices and take orders.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to decline weakly in April. The market of adiponitrile on the raw material side was weak, the market of adipic acid also fell, and the cost side support of PA66 was poor. The load of PA66 enterprise is high, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream increases. The demand side has a deep resistance to the supply of high price goods, and the market trading continues to be sluggish. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 26, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 13250.00 yuan / ton. In April, the price of DMF was mainly downward, down 8.63% compared with the beginning of April and 9.86% compared with the same period last month. At present, the mainstream price is 13200 yuan / ton. The overall trend is weak and volatile, with a narrow upward trend.

The price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. fell by 1270.00 tons in the same period last week, and the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. was the weakest in the same period. Compared with the start-up price of March / April, the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. fell by 1270.00 tons in the same period. At present, the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. was the weakest in the market. Compared with the beginning of December, the price of DMF of Jinan Chemical Co., Ltd. fell by 1270.00 tons in the same period, and the price of DMF of the downstream, Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. was 12000 yuan / ton, guanjiuzhou (Shandong) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was 14000 yuan / ton, Shandong Shengxu Energy Co., Ltd. was 13800 yuan / ton, Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. was 12800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. was 12000 yuan / ton, and upstream methyl alcohol. As of April 8, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3022 yuan / ton, up 26.46% year-on-year. The price of crude oil is weak, the price of coal continues to decline, the supply is sufficient, the traditional demand is weak, the demand for olefins is good, the price in the main production areas in the short term is expected to be lowered, and the price in the consumer market is lower.

From mid April to April 15, the DMF market was weak and the price fell. Compared with the same period last week, the price fell by 6.25%. At present, the mainstream price range is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and the negotiation focus is weak. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment is slow, the inventory is general, the operating rate is normal, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The manufacturer has successively reduced the price. The latest quotation of the manufacturer is 11700 yuan / ton of Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd, Jinan Qichen Chemical Co., Ltd. was 11700 yuan / ton, Liaocheng Jinrui New Material Co., Ltd. 11700 yuan / ton, Jinan yingsen Chemical Co., Ltd. 11700 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. 11800 yuan / ton, upstream methanol. As of April 14, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2795 yuan / ton, up 17.93% year-on-year. Factors such as higher crude oil, strong coal prices and spring maintenance supported the mentality of the industry, and the transaction atmosphere in the domestic methanol market improved.

From late April to April 22, the domestic DMF price was relatively strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price increased by 5.32%. At present, the mainstream price range is 13200-13500 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is fair, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs procurement, and the logistics is smooth. The latest quotation of the manufacturer: Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 13500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. 13200 yuan / ton, Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. 13500 yuan / ton, Shandong Haideng New Material Co., Ltd. 13000 yuan / ton, Liaocheng Jinrui New Material Co., Ltd. 11800 yuan / ton, upstream methanol. As of April 20, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2837 yuan / ton, up 0.98% from the previous trading day and 16.29% year-on-year. The production cost of methanol is weakened, the supply in the mainland is abundant, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by consolidation.

Chemical commodity index: on April 25, the chemical index was 1172 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 16.29% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 95.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that: it is expected that the DMF market will operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term, and the price will rise slightly. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices)

The lead market (4.15-4.22) fluctuated upward this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15375 yuan / ton last weekend and 15655 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.82% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 16th week of 2022 (4.18-4.22), there are 11 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, and the top three commodities are dysprosium ferroalloy (2.77%), dysprosium oxide (2.57%) and nickel (2.54%). A total of 9 commodities fell month on month, and the top 3 products were magnesium (- 3.98%), silver (- 3.89%) and electrolytic manganese (- 2.22%). Both rose or fell by 0.07% this week.

Lead futures market on April 22, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 15695 yuan / ton+ 205., 86286 tons

London lead, USD 2387 / T- 61., 39725 tons

In terms of futures market, the trend of Lun lead shock this week, with the main shock range of US $2390-2488 / ton. After the market recovered on Tuesday, it fell for two consecutive days. This week, the main contract of Shanghai lead changed months, and the overall trend fluctuated upward, with a weekly rise of 1.85%, which was mainly boosted by national policies. Shanghai lead was mainly boosted by the overall environment. The domestic inventory fell significantly during the week, which boosted the lead price again.

The futures trend is divided, with domestic strength and LME weakness. The spot market mainly follows the trend of Shanghai lead, and this week is also a shock upward trend. With the gradual recovery of domestic transportation, the market mentality was boosted. However, as the market entered the off-season in April, the demand for storage batteries began to decline, and the burden of enterprises was reduced more. The downstream storage battery enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Affected by this, the overall domestic market trading was light and the overall transaction was weak.

In the aftermarket, the business community believes that the downstream gradually enters the off-season, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, focusing on the impact of the futures market.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level this week, and the quotation is 5133.33 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 3500 yuan / ton. On April 23, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 135.09, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 39.69% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is about 3500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The price of potassium chloride this weekend was 5000 yuan / ton, compared with that of Anhui Badou last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5100 yuan / ton. The price of 60% Dahong granules in the port has been raised by about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with a quotation of 9066.67 yuan / ton, up 35.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a high level this week, and the quotation was 7050.00 yuan / ton, up 61.14% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride is general.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. As spring ploughing approaches the end, agricultural demand weakens and traders generally take goods. In terms of industry, the downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidated at a high level, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

This week (April 11-15), domestic ethyl acetate reversed the previous upward trend and the price fell back. According to the statistics of business agency, the decline this week was 3.06%, mainly due to the lower price of acetic acid raw materials, the main factories in Shandong stopped bidding and changed to retail, affecting the market mentality and the weak downstream demand. At the weekend, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the domestic acetic acid market fell this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 2.11%, and the overall transaction was average. Due to the impact of public health events, the transportation in some areas is not smooth, especially in the main production areas of central China, Shandong and East China. This week, the large plants in Henan were shut down for maintenance and the main factories in Shandong were started with reduced load. On the one hand, the downstream demand was low, on the other hand, the transportation problem and higher freight costs led to the high inventory of manufacturers and the natural downward pressure on manufacturers’ prices.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the decline of acetic acid is more obvious, the price performance is weak, and the curve is close, indicating that the profits of downstream ethyl acetate enterprises are still improving.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable this week, and the main large factories in Shandong maintained normal operation. This week, manufacturers generally reduced the ex factory price by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the factory is still retail, and there is no large volume of transactions. Some manufacturers in South China have reduced their production load. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is obvious, mainly reducing prices and arranging inventory, but the market expectation has weakened. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

On the demand side, dealers and downstream factories have weak purchase intention this week, mainly with small orders and low-end prices. Due to the general impact of national public health events, the transportation is limited, the freight is higher than that in the previous period, and the circulation of goods is insufficient, which further limits the demand for ethyl acetate.

In the future, the analysts of ethyl acetate of business society believe that the current cost of ethyl acetate is declining, the supply and demand are weak, and the operating rate of ethyl acetate manufacturers remains stable. However, it does not rule out the reduction of load production due to sluggish transactions and poor profits in the later stage, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the later stage, but considering the weakness of cost, the price is difficult to improve too much.

This week, the lead market (4.8-4.15) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15415 yuan / ton last weekend and 15375 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.26% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 15th week of 2022 (4.11-4.15), there are seven kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (10.71%), zinc (3.15%) and silver (2.77%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 5 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were dysprosium (- 11.07%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.39%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.78%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.47%.

Lead futures market on April 15, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 15490 yuan / ton+ 50., 95914 tons

London lead, US $2448 / ton+ 38., 39825 tons

In terms of futures market: Lun lead is dominated by the shock trend this week, and the overall operation range is US $2365-2450 / ton. At the beginning of the week, the metal market was generally under pressure and the overall performance was poor. The price of Lun lead was dragged down, and then the fundamental crude oil rose again, boosting the market mentality, and Lun lead hit the bottom and rebounded. Shanghai lead fluctuated in the range of 15580-15305 yuan / ton. The inventory rebounded this week, but the overall wait-and-see mood was heavy and the trend was weak. The cumulative decline in the week was 0.1%.

Basically, at present, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises has increased slightly. In terms of recycled lead, due to the limited transportation, the cross provincial transportation has a certain impact, and the overall operating rate is limited. In terms of downstream demand, with the market entering the off-season in April, the demand for storage batteries began to decline, and there were many cases of enterprise burden reduction. Downstream storage battery enterprises mainly purchased on demand, coupled with limited transportation, the demand was suspended.

In the aftermarket, the business community believes that the downstream gradually enters the off-season, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, focusing on the impact of the futures market.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of the morning of April 19, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10300.00 yuan / ton, down 8.31% compared with the price on Tuesday (April 12), 14.17% compared with the price on March 19, and up 0.98% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of melamine fell. Recently, the price of raw material urea has been rising steadily, and the cost side support has risen. Last week, the operating rate of melamine was high, but the demand side performance was weak, the manufacturers’ shipment was not smooth, the market trading atmosphere was light, and the focus of market negotiation was under pressure. This week, the cost support was gradually strengthened, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the price was mainly stable after falling.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly on April 18, up 1 yuan / ton or 0.03% compared with the price on April 15, and up 39.07% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of upstream urea is relatively strong, and the cost pressure is large. In addition, the maintenance expectation of some devices has a certain support for the market, but the demand follow-up is still insufficient. The market is expected to wait and see. It is expected that the melamine market may be stable and stable in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of April 17, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6320.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 1.10% from 6390.00 yuan / ton on April 11.

On April 17, the fuel oil commodity index was 128.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.32% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 177.78% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rise of international crude oil prices and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of April 17, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 6300 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 6400 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose, and the market heard that the EU might draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine surfaced again, and the oil price was strongly supported. The escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of oil prices. Under the background of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, as the world’s second largest oil exporter, has been expected to be interrupted due to Western sanctions, and the price trend of crude oil market has risen.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of April 13, Singapore’s fuel inventory fell by 845000 barrels to a three-month low of 19591000 barrels; Singapore’s medium distillate stocks rose 588000 barrels to a five week high of 7.615 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 1.573 million barrels to a four month low of 11.076 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price is rising, the cost of ship fuel market is high, affected by the epidemic, the transportation of ship fuel market is blocked, the market demand is low, the downstream goods are prepared carefully, the demand is just needed, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, the market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 6300 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 6400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week (4.11-15), the price of domestic adipic acid continued to decline, and adipic acid in East China fell by 0.97% this week. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid is 12200-12500 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the prices of upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell. In addition, the supply increased compared with the previous period, while the terminal demand was still cautious and the transaction was not ideal, resulting in the continuous weak downward trend of adipic acid.

In terms of market supply, this week, the operating rate of adipic acid decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and is currently maintained at 60%. The listing prices of some large manufacturers have been reduced, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is obvious, and the price reduction is mainly for inventory arrangement. In terms of commencement, several sets of devices have been overhauled. Tianli, Zhonghao and Shandong Haili have maintained 80% load reduction for commencement. Zhonghao has been temporarily inspected within a week and has now resumed operation. Jiangsu Haili and Taihua units are still shut down, and Huafeng unit takes turns to conduct temporary inspection and remove scars. Supply narrowed slightly this week, but the pressure on manufacturers’ inventory in the early stage is heavy, which is still not a favorable stimulus to prices.

Adipic acid industry chain trend

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain has declined as a whole this week. The upstream product cyclohexanone and pure benzene have declined significantly, which is in line with the adipic acid market. In addition, the downstream PA66 has continued to fall, and the terminal remains at a weak level.

Market trend of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid

The price of pure benzene fell this cycle. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of pure benzene was 2.33%. Mainly due to the price reduction of Sinopec. And the downstream buying intention is light, and the transaction is concentrated in the low end. In addition, due to the adverse impact of the continuous decline of styrene, it is expected that the demand support for pure benzene will collapse in the later stage, which will affect the mentality of the industry. Although there are large-scale plant maintenance in Shandong, the market still maintains a loose pattern, dominated by weak downside.

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

This week, cyclohexanone also continued the downward trend of last week. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of cyclohexanone was 0.59%, narrowing the decline. The domestic cyclohexanone market continued to be weak this week. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost pressure does not decrease. The downstream chemical fiber market was stable and upward. Sinopec caprolactam was listed and increased by 200 yuan / ton, but the purchase enthusiasm was general. In addition, the transportation was limited, the delivery of cyclohexanone was blocked, some enterprises stopped to reduce production, the overall supply and demand of cyclohexanone was weak, and the market was in a stalemate and consolidation. The weak supply and demand led to the continuous decline of cyclohexanone market and continued to put pressure on downstream adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream of adipic acid remains weak. The terminal demand is affected by public health events, the operating rate decreases slightly, and the road transportation is blocked, which makes the market atmosphere more light. The decline of PA66 downstream of adipic acid increased this week. According to the data of business society, the weekly decline was 5.93%. Therefore, in terms of supply, the profit of PA66 enterprise is suppressed to a certain extent. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. The slowdown in downstream demand is the fundamental reason for the continued weakness of adipic acid prices.

In the later stage, the business society believes that the main reason restricting the adipic acid market is the dual pressure of weak downstream demand and high social inventory. Public health events have brought uncertainty to the market and double pressure on demand and transportation. But at the same time, the supply side is also good, and the operating rate continues to decline, which is conducive to reducing the supply pressure in the later stage. Overall, adipic acid may still maintain a weak market, but it may stop falling in the near future.

From April 8 to April 14, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable. The price was 83750 yuan / ton last weekend and 83750 yuan / ton this weekend, flat.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise after the Spring Festival, and the rise trend stabilized in the later stage, mainly maintaining a temporary stability in the past two weeks.

The antimony ingot market continued to maintain a temporary stable trend this week. According to the data shown in the k-column chart of commodity prices above, it can be found that the price of antimony ingots has been stable for three consecutive weeks. After the price entered a stable trend, the overall market was also relatively stable. The downstream continued to maintain the on-demand procurement plan, and the market trading was slightly stable. There is no significant improvement in market supply and demand. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of antimony ingots will remain high in the future. The future will focus on the impact of antimony pollution prevention and control in Zijiang River Basin on local antimony ingot production.

Relevant information:

On April 4, Zeng Chaoqun, deputy secretary of Loudi municipal Party committee and mayor, stressed at the first meeting of the ecological and environmental protection leading group of Zijiang River basin that we should deal with the “three pairs of relations” of “addressing symptoms and root causes”, “decision-making and implementation” and “vertical and horizontal” with systematic thinking, comprehensively promote the ecological and environmental protection of Zijiang River Basin, and ensure the safety of people’s drinking water and the ecological security of Zijiang River Basin. At the meeting, Loudi Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development and Loudi Municipal Bureau of ecological environment respectively reported on the construction of Xinhua No. 2 water plant, the upward movement of water intake and the prevention and control of antimony pollution in Zijiang River Basin; Lengshuijiang City and Xinhua County reported the relevant work.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 11, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12800.00 yuan / ton, and the price decreased slightly. Compared with the same period last week, the price decreased by 12.3%, or about 1500 yuan / ton. In the short term, DMF is dominated by weak operation.

The DMF market was weak and the price fell by 12.3% compared with the same period last week. The focus of negotiation was weak. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment was slow, the inventory was general, the operating rate was normal, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The manufacturer successively reduced the price. The latest quotation of the manufacturer: Jinan pulaihua Chemical Co., Ltd. 12700 yuan / ton, Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 12000 yuan / ton, Guanjiuzhou (Shandong) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is 14000 yuan / ton, Shandong Shengxu Energy Co., Ltd. is 13800 yuan / ton, Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12800 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu Leien Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. is 12000 yuan / ton.

Upstream methanol, as of April 8, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3022 yuan / ton, up 26.46% year-on-year. The price of crude oil is weak, the price of coal continues to decline, the supply is sufficient, the traditional demand is weak, the demand for olefins is good, the price in the main production areas in the short term is expected to be lowered, and the price in the consumer market is lower.

Chemical commodity index: on April 10, the chemical index was 1184 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 15.43% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 97.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, DMF is dominated by weak operation. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of April 11, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 7266.67 yuan / ton, up 2.35% from last Wednesday (April 6), 43.42% from March 11, and 68.99% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid has risen. Recently, the main raw material methanol has been operating at a high level, and the cost pressure still exists. A large factory at the supply end has been overhauled, and the market supply has shrunk. The main downstream just needs to follow up. The export market support is strong, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is positive, there is a certain impact on the transportation of some regions, and the formic acid market is in line.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 1230.00 on April 8, an increase of 9.43% compared with April 1 (1124.00); Upstream liquid ammonia, on April 11, Shandong liquid ammonia market rose steadily; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose on April 11; For upstream methanol, on April 8, the reference price of methanol was 3022.50, a decrease of 1.55% compared with April 1 (3070.00).

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of methanol, the main raw material, has weakened, the cost support is limited, the export orders have increased, and the support of supply and demand is still strong. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate strongly in the short term.