According to the data of business agency, as of April 29, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6310.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.16% from 6320.00 yuan / ton on April 25.

On April 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 127.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.47% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 177.34% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

International crude oil prices fluctuated and rose, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of April 29, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 6200 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 6300 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

Under the background that the international crude oil price fluctuates and rises, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disturb the market, it will aggravate the expectation of tightening oil supply in the future. In addition, in terms of other supply factors, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has continued the gradual and small increase in production policy, which will stabilize the tightening of crude oil supply, with little effect. The OPEC monthly meeting may be held on May 5. Considering the binding interests of OPEC and its Russian allies, the possibility of policy change is small. The market generally expects that there is a high possibility of a small increase in production in June. On the whole, the trend of crude oil prices rose in April.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of April 27, Singapore’s fuel inventory decreased by 3.959 million barrels to a seven month low of 19.144 million barrels. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 268000 barrels to 13.266 million barrels, the highest since March 30. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 1.98 million barrels to a three week low of 7.043 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price fluctuates, and the cost of ship fuel market is high. At present, the ship fuel market is mainly stable temporarily. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of ship fuel market is blocked, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the market is just in need, and the overall transaction is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6200-6300 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6300-6400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.