1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell sharply this week. On Monday (December 7), the price of sample enterprises of business agency was 8066.67 yuan / ton, while on Friday (December 11), the price of sample enterprises was 7550.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.40%. The price was 0.44% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
The market price of styrene continued to fall this week. East China styrene closed at 7900-8100 yuan / ton on December 07, and 7550 yuan / ton on December 11, down 400 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang’s export price. South China styrene closed at 8400-8500 yuan / ton on December 07, and 8100 yuan / ton on December 11, down 300 yuan / ton, which was the delivery price of the above factories.
In terms of raw materials, the international oil price shows a dynamic trend of narrow wave recently. Pure benzene rose and then fell back, ethylene slowly fell and then rebounded. In general, the price of ethylene and pure benzene is weak, and the cost support of styrene is insufficient. As of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ethylene price was 954.25 yuan / ton, up 11.75 yuan / ton or 1.25% from 942.50 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). Ethylene downstream styrene, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, etc. due to cost and shipping pressure, the operating rate decreased, and the demand for raw materials procurement decreased. At the same time, the recent import of ethylene ships to the port, the supply increased significantly. The supply and demand side lacks the support of favorable factors, and the market quotation falls.
As for pure benzene, the mainstream quotation as of Friday (December 11) was 4556.00 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton or 0.44% from 4536.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene in East China was driven up by the continuous rise of styrene in the external market. At the end of the week, with the weakening of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene continued to fall. Some low-cost goods sources in the early stage began to profit taking, and the market selling increased, resulting in lower prices.
In terms of inventory, total inventory in East China this week was 69600 tons, down 2.66% from 71500 tons last week. There is less styrene in Hong Kong this week, and the rate of wharf going to storage has been greatly reduced. Arrival less than delivery, overall, port inventory decline. In terms of domestic styrene, the domestic styrene operating rate decreased slightly this week, with the average operating rate of 80.98% last week and 78.2% of this week, with a decrease of 2.78%. Under the pressure of cost and shipment, the total operating rate of domestic styrene production enterprises decreased. On the whole, enterprise inventory and social inventory are still in the middle and low level, and continue to be less in a short time.
On the downstream side, the overall downstream price of styrene fell this week. Although the production and sales remained profitable, some downstream profits shrank, and the traditional off-season terminal demand shrank, and some downstream accumulated stocks. In the PS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory price of PS in East China was 10133.33 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton or 3.80% from 10533.33 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). The average operating rate of domestic PS this week was 65.85%, slightly lower than that of 67.15% last week. Affected by the continuous weakening of styrene price, the bearish mentality of PS market appears, the atmosphere of market price reduction and shipment is strong, and the actual transaction is weak.
In the EPS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 9700.00 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton or 3.00% compared with 10000.00 yuan on Monday (December 07). The continuous fall of styrene price led to the downward trend of EPS market price, and the overall trading performance of the market was poor.
In the ABS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 16900.00 yuan / ton, down 1450 yuan / ton or 7.90% from 18350.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). This week, the price of ABS fell sharply due to the fall of styrene price and the decrease of terminal demand. ABS supply is good this week, no maintenance manufacturers, basically maintain full load operation, operating rate is the same as last week.
3、 Future prospects
The crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, the prices of ethylene and pure benzene at the raw material end are weak, and the cost support of styrene is insufficient. The situation of styrene supply side is generally acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient gas purchase. It is expected that styrene will be dominated by weak finishing next week, with the price range of 7400-7800 yuan / ton.
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