Cobalt prices fluctuated and rose in December
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According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of December 29th, the price of cobalt was 220900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the cobalt price of 219000 yuan/ton on December 1st; The cobalt price has increased by 4.00% compared to December 7th at 212400 yuan/ton. In November, cobalt terminal consumption improved, but the production of ternary materials, ternary precursors, and cobalt sulfate still contracted. The industrial chain actively promoted the elimination of raw material inventory, and cobalt prices fell to the historical absolute bottom area. Supply decreased and demand increased, and cobalt prices rebounded and rose in December.
The demand for ternary battery terminals is recovering
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in November, China’s power battery installation volume was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month on month increase of 14.5%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 15.7 GWh, accounting for 35.0% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 29.1 GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed capacity. In November, the installed capacity of ternary batteries increased significantly, the proportion of ternary batteries rebounded, the terminal demand for ternary batteries rebounded, and the demand in the cobalt market increased.
With the continuous decline in nickel and cobalt prices, the cost gap between ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has further narrowed, highlighting the cost-effectiveness advantage of ternary batteries. It is expected that the sales of ternary batteries will increase in the future. Ternary batteries are favorable for cobalt market demand.
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Mobile phone sales rebounded
According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2023, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 29.162 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. From January to October 2023, the total shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 230 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The year-on-year increase in mobile phone shipments has boosted the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market.
The import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in November was 13600 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 88%; The cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to November was 103800 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased, and the supply of cobalt in the market has increased.
Overview and Outlook
According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales of ternary batteries have increased, mobile phone sales have rebounded, demand for cobalt in the market is expected to rise, and the import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly. However, domestic production of ternary materials has contracted, the industrial chain has been destocked, and the supply of metallic cobalt is sufficient. Overall, cobalt prices have fallen to historic lows, bottoming out, and both supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.
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