1、 Trend analysis

 

Melamine

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose slightly this week. As of November 4, spot nickel was quoted at 195500 yuan/ton, up 4.99% from the beginning of the week and 35.47% year on year.

 

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

 

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 7 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price is still in a wide range of shocks.

 

Nickel industry chain

 

LME Nickel Inventory

 

As of November 3, LME nickel inventory was 51432 tons, 156 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 360 tons, a decrease of 0.7%.

 

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 75bp as scheduled. Powell suggested that the pace of interest rate increase might slow down, but the high point of interest rate would be higher, and the interest rate would stay at the high level for a longer time, which was slightly hawkish and weakened risk appetite. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, the largest rate in 33 years, emphasizing that the peak interest rate will be lower than the market expectation; In October, the ISM non manufacturing industry in the United States hit a new low since May 2020, which coincided with the downturn of the manufacturing industry.

 

In terms of supply, the rainy season has arrived in the Philippines, and the supply of nickel ore at the mine end has entered a tightening stage, with firm prices. With the support of the ore end cost, the price of the ferronickel plant is firm, and the price center continues to move upward in the near future. The Indonesian government plans to release the nickel export tax policy in the third quarter of this year, but it has not yet implemented it. However, the news surfaced again last week. It is understood that the collection of NPI and ferronickel tax is a matter of time. If the export tax is implemented, Chinese stainless steel plants will have to spend more money on raw materials. If a 10% export tax is levied on the current NPI price, the cost of 304 stainless steel made in China will increase by 152 dollars per ton.

 

In terms of demand, the downstream acceptance of pure nickel is limited under the continuous high nickel price. Traders continue to reduce the spot premium, but the deal is average. The output of stainless steel in the downstream is increasing, and the demand for new energy is still strong, and the supply and demand in nickel market is relatively strong.

 

To sum up, the nickel industry chain is running strongly on the whole, the stainless steel industry’s output has increased demand for nickel, and the raw material supply side has disturbed the cost support. However, the domestic manufacturing industry’s PMI data is weak, the pace of repair has been disturbed by the epidemic, and the stainless steel import data has weakened. The nickel price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

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