This week (4.15-19), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. The transaction prices of major manufacturers were generally lowered by about 3000 yuan/ton this week, slightly slower than the previous week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.44%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 42000 to 50000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, large factories are currently operating with concentrated facilities, resulting in high supply pressure. On the one hand, mainstream large factories have stable output, new production capacity has been gradually released, and domestic supply has performed well. On the other hand, the high inventory of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers has led to a significant decrease in procurement efforts, which has also led to a gradual increase in silicon material inventory. Although large factories have generally raised prices before, they are currently under inventory pressure and have to lower prices in order to clear inventory. It is not ruled out that prices may continue to loosen in the future.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, this week’s silicon wafer prices continued their previous decline, and since April, silicon wafer prices have continued to decline. The operating load of silicon wafer companies has decreased, and the current inventory pressure is relatively high. The main reason is the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with insufficient production from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to an oversupply situation. Some second and third tier silicon wafer manufacturers continue to reduce operating rates to alleviate inventory pressure. However, the current effect is not significant, and the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to solve in the short term. As of April 19th, the mainstream transaction price of M10 silicon wafers this week remained at last week’s level, about 1.65 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of G12 continues to decline, with a decrease of 0.05 yuan, falling to 2.10 yuan/piece.

From the perspective of terminal demand, most battery cell quotations have stabilized, and prices have stopped the downward trend, but some models still have a slight decline. The main reason is the weakening of downstream demand, the significant price reduction of upstream silicon wafers, and the decrease in procurement efforts at the component end, which have double suppressed the overall environment of solar cells. This week, the components were affected by the sluggish terminal installation, resulting in a sluggish price trend and a pattern of oversupply in the photovoltaic industry chain.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, and the contradiction of oversupply is prominent. However, the performance of installed capacity demand is moderate, and it is expected that the upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and there may still be room for a decline in silicon material prices.