The price of DOTP fell in February

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the average price of DOTP was 9975 yuan/ton, down 7.21% from the average price of 10750 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the plasticizer enterprises started to recover, the supply of DOTP increased, the price of raw materials fell, and the cost support of DOTP was insufficient. In February, the price of DOTP fell in shock.

The price of raw materials fell in February

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 28, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, down 14.06% from 10666.67 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), isooctanol enterprises resumed construction in succession. The supply of isooctanol was sufficient, the downstream demand remained weak, the inventory remained before the festival, and downstream customers sought bargains to replenish the inventory. In February, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, and the downward pressure on DOTP was greater. Later, the demand for isooctanol started to stabilize, the price of isooctanol stabilized, and the momentum for DOTP to rise remained.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the PTA price was 5597.27 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the price of 5763.64 yuan/ton on February 1. In February, PTA enterprises resumed construction in succession, downstream demand rose slowly, PTA orders were poor, and PTA prices fell in February; With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the PTA demand is expected to rise, the PTA price is expected to rise in the future, the DOTP cost support remains, and the DOTP rising power is expected to remain.

Downstream PVC market fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the PVC quotation was 6313.33 yuan/ton as of February 28, down 0.39% from the price of 6338.33 yuan/ton on February 1. In February, the spot price of PVC fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall. The performance of real estate data in February was poor, the resumption of work and production was less than expected, the PVC spot market transaction was tepid, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to take goods was not high. In short, the growth of DOTP demand was limited, and the support for the rise of DOTP was insufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, in February, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, fell sharply, the price of PTA fell first and then rose, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material fell; Downstream customers are looking for bargains to replenish their stocks. The DOTP demand in February was less than expected, and the DOTP demand support was insufficient. With the economic recovery, the price of isooctanol has stabilized, the price of PTA has stopped rising, and the demand for PVC has recovered slowly. In the future, the cost support still has a slow recovery of demand. It is expected that the DOTP will shake and consolidate strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. The price was 7370 yuan/ton on February 27; On March 5, the price was 7480 yuan/ton, up 1.49% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of crude oil, the overall trend of crude oil this week was fluctuating and upward. Russia has implemented a production reduction of 500000 barrels per day since March to deal with the western embargo and price ceiling on Russian crude oil goods. In addition, Russia’s European market share has almost disappeared, and it has been replaced by Asian long-distance destinations with higher cost and longer time. The export volume of seaborne crude oil to European countries fell to 113000 barrels per day. Crude oil exports to Nordic countries fell to 0, and exports to Mediterranean countries fell for three consecutive weeks, to an average of 162000 barrels per day.

Against the background of market worries about the global economic recession, there are still many uncertain factors in crude oil supply. The international crude oil supply as a whole has maintained a stable and tight state, among which, China’s crude oil consumption has always maintained a positive growth trend.

On March 5, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 78.16 USD/barrel, up 3.28% from the beginning of this month (75.68 USD/barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil was US $84.75/barrel, up 3.30% from the beginning of the month (US $82.04/barrel).

In terms of external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia showed an upward trend this week. On February 27, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 7470.5 yuan/ton, and on March 2, the price was 7563.5 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton year-on-year, or 1.24%.

In terms of downstream px, the px market was stable this week. The price of PX was 8500 yuan/ton on February 27 and 8500 yuan/ton on March 5, which was the same as last week.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China this week showed an upward trend, the price of mixed xylene in the upstream rose, the price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream rose, and the market in the upstream and downstream of the ox industrial chain warmed up. The price of OX was 8000 yuan/ton on February 27, and 8300 yuan/ton on March 5, with an increase of 3.75%.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rose slightly this week, with the price of 8376.2 yuan/ton on February 27 and 8530.6 yuan/ton on March 5, up 154.4 yuan/ton or 1.84% from last week.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Domestic and foreign oil prices gradually stabilized and recovered this week. By the close of Friday, Brent crude oil had risen by nearly 4%, WTI crude oil had risen by nearly 4.5%, and the main domestic crude oil contract 2304 had risen by nearly 3%. The international oil price is expected to return to the level of US $100 this year, and the recovery of Chinese demand is one of the most important driving forces. It is expected that the international oil price will rise before it falls next week.

The supply and demand situation of mixed xylene is improving. With the further improvement of the downstream PX, the domestic consumption of mixed xylene is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the terminal consumption of gasoline in spring and the peak demand season of the chemical fiber industry will also gradually open. The terminal consumption of mixed xylene is expected to be optimistic and the advantage will not be reduced. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 31550 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 31500 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.16% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. At present, the supply and demand of the yellow phosphorus market is deadlocked. On the whole, there are few transactions in the market, and the price is slightly reduced. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 30500-32500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 2, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1074 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of February 27. At present, there is little change in the supply and demand information in the phosphate ore field. The high market price is mostly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is generally stable. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business association believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly be stable and stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the change in the supply and demand information.

In terms of coke, up to now, the market price of coke in Shandong port has been temporarily stable, the quasi-first level ex-warehouse price of the port is about 2750-2800 yuan/ton, the first-level ex-warehouse price is 2850-2900 yuan/ton, the port price has been temporarily stable, the port inventory has continued to rise, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. In terms of freight, it is 230 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port on the 3rd, and 220 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port. The freight is temporarily stable.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid rose this week. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 8400 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 8483.33 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.99% during the week. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be dominated by wait-and-see mentality in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that at present, the market price of phosphorus ore and coke in the upstream is temporarily stable, and the cost support is acceptable, and the price of yellow phosphorus enterprises is mainly high. Downstream enterprises in the yellow phosphorus market are not highly receptive to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the supply and demand sides are deadlocked on the sidelines. On the whole, the market transaction is light. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will stagnate in the short term, with limited adjustment space, and pay attention to changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 19333.33 yuan/ton, 4.50% higher than the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.48% higher than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68% compared with the price of 24500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 10.30% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the domestic price of chloroform rose by 26.32%, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell by 1.71%. In general, the cost of R22 raw materials rose sharply, and the downstream trading entities were active in purchasing, supported by cost and demand, the manufacturers successively raised the factory price, which helped the market price of R22 continue to rise in February.

In February, the domestic trichloroethylene price as a whole stopped falling and rebounded, and the hydrofluoric acid price as a whole weakened and stabilized. In general, the upstream raw material price as a whole stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the domestic R134a price rose slightly supported by the small recovery of cost.

In terms of raw materials, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price weakened and stabilized in February, and the trichloroethylene price stopped falling and recovered. The rising cost will further support the future R134a price.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that under the support of both cost and demand, the domestic R22 price is expected to continue to rise in March, and the overall R134a price is expected to continue to be stable and strong in March.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on February 27 was 104.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 27.05% from the highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 23.40% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020.. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot: According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market continued to decline in late February, with a range of about 1.6%: on the 21st, the main market price was 1956.25 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, the main price was 1925 yuan/ton. At present, the water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have sufficient inventory, the demand for downstream purchase orders is weak, and the domestic polyaluminum chloride market is not supported enough, and the market continues to decline slightly.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the domestic hydrochloric acid price increased slightly by 1.22% in late February, and the mainstream market price was about 164-168 yuan/ton. From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, it has been slightly increased recently; The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly in the near future, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, and the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly. The downstream purchasing willingness is general. The domestic market price of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) in late February fell first and then went up: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 21 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28; Among them, the highest stage price was 6082 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the lowest stage price was 5964 yuan/ton on the 24th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.98%.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw material market is stable and slightly upward, but due to the continued weakness of downstream demand and the sufficient inventory of manufacturers from the year before, the supply is more than the demand is less, and the market support is unfavorable. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will continue to be weak in the near future.

This week, the spot tin market price (2.17-2.24) fluctuated in the market and went down as a whole. The average price of the domestic market was 214360 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 211410 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.38%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will rise as a whole after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors.

In the futures market, the trend of the futures market this week was somewhat volatile. In the macro aspect, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates. The Fed’s statement on Tuesday made the market worried about raising interest rates increase. The metal market was generally under pressure. The price of Shanghai Tin fluctuated more frequently during the week.

In terms of the spot market, the market trend this week was basically consistent with that of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, with frequent fluctuations in the week and overall downward trend. The price fluctuation is obvious. The market trading in the week is slightly cold, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. After Monday’s fall, the market has some bargain-hunting. On the supply side, the smelter is currently operating steadily, but the price fluctuation in the week has made the manufacturers have a strong attitude of price fixing. In terms of demand, with the lower tin price, the mentality of replenishment in the downstream is gradually rising. It is common for the market to seek bargains to replenish the stock. The overall social inventory declines, and the market just needs to remain. On the whole, the demand for loose supply is weak. In the future, the tin market is expected to remain stable and weak. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of macroeconomic policies on the market mentality.

The base metal index stood at 1260 points on February 26, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.03% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 96.26% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 8th week of 2023 (2.20-2.24), with cobalt (2.58%), tin (1.51%) and zinc (0.77%) among the top three commodities. There were 9 commodities that fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products were neodymium oxide (- 4.61%), neodymium metal (- 3.72%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.90%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.54%.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of the 24th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8287.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.86% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, the Anhui Tongling Linfa phthalic anhydride has started to ship normally, the Xinyang Group’s 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, and the Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride has operated normally. Now the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is sufficient, the phthalic anhydride delivery is normal, and the phthalic anhydride market has risen slightly.

Cost side: o-benzene market is stable

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene is temporarily stable. As of the 24th, the price of ortho benzene is 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend is temporarily stable. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory changes little. The stable ortho benzene price brings some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

On the demand side: the trend of DOP market is volatile, and procurement is based on demand

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, with an increase of 0.40%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand of plasticizer industry is weak. Affected by the fluctuation of DOP price, the price of phthalic anhydride is low, but the overall price is low.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is stable in the short term, but the market of downstream plasticizer industry is fluctuating, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will be stable in the later period.

Ethylene oxide price rebounded in February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on February 22, 2023 was 6800 yuan/ton, up 7.94% from 6300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, the resumption of terminal production and the improvement of downstream demand are the main reasons for the strong price of ethylene oxide.

Overview of fundamentals

On the supply side, ethylene oxide production capacity is relatively stable, the price of raw material ethylene has little change, and the support is limited. On the demand side, the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer has warmed after the holiday, especially the terminal real estate operating rate, and the demand is expected to be large. At present, the production enthusiasm of polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer enterprises has increased, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide has improved. In the early stage, when the fundamentals of ethylene oxide were weak, ethylene oxide manufacturers and holding traders began to increase their prices.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of raw material ethylene is relatively stable, the terminal demand is improved, the downstream demand is increased, the market of the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer is improved, and the demand for ethylene oxide is expected to improve. In the early stage, the price of ethylene oxide fell, and the price was low. There was some room for rebound. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will continue the current trend in the short term, with strong shocks.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price rose slightly this week, with the average market price rising from 155.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 156.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.65%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 36.07%. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 19 was 41.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.23% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 128.31% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride dropped slightly, from 1966.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1960.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.32%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 18.08%; The market price of ammonium chloride is high, and the market price is 1212.50 yuan/ton. On the whole, upstream support has increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

Aftermarket forecast

In late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level. The downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

Price trend

The trend of domestic PA66 market was sideways in mid-February. According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 21000 yuan/ton on February 20, with a decline of – 2.33% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In mid-February, the market of PA66 remained stagnant. In terms of supply, the current overall domestic load of PA66 industry has increased by a narrow margin, about 66%. The enterprise’s operation follows the trend of going to the warehouse in the early stage, and the inventory pressure is general, and the supply of goods on the site is relatively abundant. In the upstream, the overall operating rate of adipic acid as raw material has increased, and the expected increase in supply in the later period is negative for the market. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is also expected to increase, and the support of PA66 raw material end to the spot is weakened. The situation in demand is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods, and buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced goods. The smoothness of merchants’ delivery is average.

Aftermarket forecast

In mid-February, the spot price of PA66 was flat. The market of raw materials began to weaken, and the support for PA66 cost side weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises is stable, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side is weak in taking goods, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9550.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of Monday.

The epoxy propane market fell first and then rose this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene rose slightly, the liquid chlorine of raw material operated slightly, the cost support was strong, and the supply end devices fluctuated little. At the beginning of the week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high, the factory shipments were weak, some of the accumulated inventory, and the market wait-and-see weakened. With the centralized replenishment after the downstream terminal wait-and-see, the market price rose. On the 17th, the mainstream price of propylene oxide market in Shandong Province was around 9600-9700 yuan/ton, and the market operated slightly.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has risen slightly recently. On February 16, the reference price of propylene was 7480.75, up 0.17% from February 13 (7468.25).

The epoxy propane analyst of the business agency believes that at present, there is some support for the cost, the factory shipment is smooth, and the demand side is mainly followed up. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will be stronger in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fallen sharply recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1243.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1233.33 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The current price fell 2.89% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating. From the figure above, it can be seen that the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market has declined this week. As of February 16, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1170-1280 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of raw material methanol has declined slightly, the demand of downstream plate factories has recovered slowly, and the formaldehyde inventory is high. In order to ship, the formaldehyde manufacturers have led the market to decline.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has declined slightly, with the mainstream ex-factory price of methanol in southern Shandong at 2600 yuan/ton, and some ex-factory prices around 2500 yuan/ton; The delivery price in Linyi is 2550 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation of enterprises in central and eastern Shandong fell 80 yuan to 2470-2500 yuan/ton; The reference price of Dongying and surrounding areas is 2450 yuan/ton. With the end of the holiday, some coal mines began to resume work and production, and the output picked up slightly. The terminal power plants were in a weak purchasing mood under the support of long-term cooperative coal. The non-electric terminal raw coal was consumed during the holiday, and the demand for replenishment in the near future was released slightly. In the short term, the power coal price is mainly stable. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good.

Recently, the methanol market has been volatile and low, the cost support is not good, and the downstream is still just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde market is likely to follow the methanol fluctuation, so the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Association predicted that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is mainly volatile.

From February 3 to February 10, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose, with the price of 81500 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 85750 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.21%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, remained flat for seven consecutive weeks, the price began to decline continuously at the end of October, and slightly recovered after the end of December.

European strategic small metal antimony price this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ February 3/ February 10/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 12700./12700./ -

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony was temporarily stable, and the price was 12700 US dollars/ton by February 10. The market price was temporarily stable during the week, and the negotiation atmosphere was OK.

Antimony ingot prices continued to rise this week, with active market trading. On the supply side, it will take some time to resume work during the holiday. Therefore, the antimony ingot market is still in a tight supply situation. The suppliers have a strong reluctance to sell recently, and the quotations have also been continuously raised. Driven by the current market atmosphere, the demand side has active market transactions, active inquiries, and the expected improvement of export conditions. The actual transaction of the market has improved significantly. With the rising prices, at present, it is mainly the purchase on demand, while other transactions are slightly light. In the future, the price of antimony ingot will remain stable, medium and strong in the future under the expectation of tight supply and improved demand. However, with the fall of trading atmosphere, the rising space may be limited.

Antimony oxide price trend this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ February 3/ February 10/ Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide./73000./75500./+2500

99.8% antimony trioxide./74500./77000./+2500

This week, the antimony oxide market rose broadly, and the market turnover was significantly improved. Under the tight supply of raw materials, the market procurement was more active than in the early stage. After the Lantern Festival, the market was basically completely resumed. At present, the construction was gradually resumed, and the overall market was relatively strong.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1191 points on February 12, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.56% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 96.21% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were four commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 6th week of 2023 (2.6-2.10), with antimony (3.94%), nickel (2.96%) and lead (0.49%) among the top three commodities. A total of 17 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products fell were Praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 4.35%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.46%) and dysprosium oxide (- 2.45%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.82%.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell mainly, and the domestic rare earth market declined. The rare earth index was 668 points on February 12, down 33.66% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 146.49% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium all fell in China. As of the 13th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 875000 yuan/ton, down 2.23% this week; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 715000 yuan/ton, down 4.35%; The price of neodymium oxide was 785000 yuan/ton, down 1.88%; The price of neodymium metal was 965000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.03%; The price of praseodymium metal was 915000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.14%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 705000 yuan/ton, down 1.40% this week.

The domestic light rare earth market inquiry list is cold and the demand is poor. The downstream magnetic material enterprises have sufficient stock before the festival. The downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory. The metal demand situation in the rare earth market has not improved. Some metal factories have almost no transactions. In addition, the transaction situation of rare earth oxide inquiry list is not optimistic. The prices of the holders continue to decline. In the near future, the downstream procurement is very cold, coupled with the gradual resumption of production enterprises, the supply of light rare earth market is increasing, and the negative factors are superimposed, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly declining.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.365 million yuan/ton as of the 13th, and the price fell by 3.27% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.355 million yuan/ton, down 3.29%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.145 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.02%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.7 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.4 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earths has declined. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in rare earths mining areas in Sichuan and other places has increased, the production of production enterprises has increased, the downstream procurement is scarce, and the market price has declined slightly. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price decline in the heavy rare earth market is limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis, down 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, and the market share reached 24.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the demand for new energy has declined, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market has declined.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth are sustainable development. In the near future, the procurement of downstream businesses is cold, coupled with the increase of upstream supply, the dealers holding goods are unwilling to sell at low prices, and the transaction is very cold. In the short term, the price of the rare earth market is mainly declining. In the long term, the demand in the new energy field is still guaranteed, and the development of the rare earth industry is optimistic.

Price trend

In the first ten days of February, the domestic POM market was relatively active, and the overall price performance was stable first and then rose. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14200 yuan/ton, and the price level increased by+1.91% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating recently. It can be seen from the figure below that the formaldehyde market is mainly subject to small fluctuations, and this week’s market has declined. As of February 9, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1200-1280 yuan/ton. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly and the formaldehyde inventory was high. In order to ship, the formaldehyde manufacturers led the market down.

Supply: In the first ten days of February, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to run at a high level, and the industry load reached more than 97%, almost full. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, the inventory position is low, and the processing profit has declined.

Demand: In terms of demand, there is an atmosphere of speculation in the market due to the tight supply in the near future. In addition to the promotion of the resumption of work and stock preparation of terminal enterprises after the holiday, the current demand is gradually released, which has a driving effect on the spot price.

The tight supply of goods in the POM market continues, and the manufacturer’s ex-factory price is rising steadily. Guided by this, the traders’ mentality is strongly supported.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of February, the POM market rose steadily. The domestic polymerization plant operates at almost full capacity, but the inventory pressure is small, the supply of goods on the site is more compact, and the ex-factory price of domestic materials is quite high. The demand side is gradually developing, and it is expected that the downstream enterprises will still have room to expand the scale of resumption of work, and some customers will have upward-seeking operations. It is expected that the POM market will continue to run strongly in the short term due to the support of the supply side.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of raw silk fluctuated at a high level this week. As of February 3, the average market price was 437975 yuan/ton, 0.12% higher than last week’s price (437450 yuan/ton), and 1.88% lower than the previous year; The dried cocoon market remained stable, with an average market price of 145000 yuan/ton, up 0.69% year on year.

This week, on the spot market, the overall price and trading volume of raw silk increased compared with the last trading week before the year. On high-quality raw silk, the trading performance of the first trading week of this week after the year was slightly better than that of the last trading week before the year. The transaction price of some units is higher than that of the year before, and the transaction price of some units is basically the same as that of the year before. On the whole, the price index of high-quality raw silk is higher than that of the year before. In terms of silk floss, since the end of the year, whether it is customer maintenance needs or just needs to get the goods, more or less deals have been made, and the price of some varieties is better than that before the year. As for dry cocoons, the expectation of the selling unit is higher than that of the year before due to the good start of the Spring Festival consumption and the increased cost of capital and other factors. However, the dry cocoon buyer does have a shortage of raw materials after the year, but the acceptance is limited, and the transaction is still difficult. In addition, the start of construction this week is gradually starting, and the dry cocoon continues to have no transaction data.

Downstream, although light textile markets in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong and other places have opened in succession, textile and fabric enterprises that have resumed production in advance after the festival have also opened the inquiry mode, and the whole industry chain is in good mood. However, due to the fact that weaving enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places are still in the state of resumption of production, and it is expected that the enterprises will resume work fully on the 15th of the first month, and the yarn procurement has not actually started (the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong). Although the stock of raw materials (yarn) is not high before the Spring Festival, we still hope to replenish the stock after the production is completely restored, and it still depends on the terminal orders. It is expected that downstream enterprises will resume work fully after the Lantern Festival, and the market will gradually enter the key stage of verifying demand.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the stock of grey fabric enterprises is high before the year. Although the demand for raw materials will be expected to be good as the downstream production resumes, due to the slow recovery of the start of construction and the limited effect of the boost, it is expected that the short-term dry cocoon and raw silk market will be mainly subject to shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the downstream demand in the future.

Last week (January 30-February 5, 2023), the market price of nylon filament rose continuously after the holiday. After the festival, the cost of caprolactam, the raw material, was supported favorably, the spot price was tight, and the upstream and downstream demand was steadily followed up. The market of nylon chips and nylon filament is driven by cost. After the festival, the construction of nylon filament was relatively low, but the supply in the field was sufficient, the inventory was high, and the market was mainly dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the textile market is difficult to hide the weak situation. Weaving manufacturers are generally motivated to stock raw materials, and the atmosphere of rising is not high. Most downstream weaving factories maintain low load production.

Market price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of nylon filament rose continuously last week (January 30 to February 5, 2023). As of February 5, 2023, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium products; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu was 18160 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton higher than that of last week, with a weekly increase of 2.95%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 15850 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, up 1.93% per week; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) was 18925 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week, up 2.71%.

Upstream raw material market

Raw material caprolactam: Last week (January 30 – February 5, 2023), the cost of raw material caprolactam was supported favorably, the spot price was tight, and the demand of upstream and downstream was steadily followed up, so the spot price rose continuously. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on February 5 was 12833 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week, up 4.05% per week. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain strong in the short term.

Supply and demand

After the Spring Festival, nylon filament enterprises started cautiously, and the overall production and supply of the market was sufficient, with the main force digesting the inventory. The operating rate of the downstream weaving industry has not completely recovered, and the market transaction is in the slow start stage. The grey fabric inventory in the factory has not changed much compared with that before the festival, and is still under high pressure. The enthusiasm of raw material stocking is not high, and the terminal demand is weak. Most weaving factories are at the lowest load production.

Aftermarket forecast

In the later stage, the cost support of nylon filament market is strong. With the increase of textile construction, the end demand is expected to improve, boosting market confidence to a certain extent. With the demand for replenishment of downstream enterprises after the festival, the analysts of the business association predict that there is still a narrow upward space for the market of nylon filament in the short term, so it is necessary to pay attention to the price change of raw materials.

This week (1.30-2.6), the butadiene rubber market rose first, then fell, and rose overall. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 6, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11660 yuan/ton, up 1.48% from 11490 yuan/ton last Monday, and the highest point in the cycle was 11800 yuan/ton. After the festival, downstream inquiries increased a little, and the price of raw butadiene was high and strong, so cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber enterprises were willing to increase the price. Within the week, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber suppliers increased the ex-factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton. Buying sentiment weakened after the market price rose, and the offer of merchants fell slightly in the middle of the week. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 6, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was reported at 11500 yuan/ton. As of the 6th, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 10550~11800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber reported 11300~11400 yuan/ton.

This week (1.30-2.6), the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9432 yuan/ton as of February 6, up 4.57% from 9020 yuan/ton on January 30.

The natural rubber market fell sharply this week (1.30-2.6), which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 12104 yuan/ton as of February 6, down 4.77% from 12710 yuan/ton last Friday.

Enquiries from some downstream product enterprises increased after the festival, which had a small support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; However, the commencement of tire enterprises is still at a low level, and the demand for polybutadiene rubber is weak; The negotiation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber mainly focuses on small orders.

Future forecast: The analysts of the Business Agency believe that at present, the pressure on the supply side of polybutadiene rubber is still there, but the cost side is up. In addition, the start of downstream tires after the Lantern Festival may increase. It is expected that the polybutadiene rubber market will continue to rise slightly with the start of the downstream.

The price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly in January. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on January 31 was 7642 yuan/ton, up 4.66% from the price of 7302 at the beginning of the month, up 1.64% year on year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7470 (settlement price 7488), up 3.29% from the beginning of the month.

In January, the international crude oil price rose first and then fell, with a slight decline in the whole month. On January 31, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at around $79/barrel. The supply of crude oil in the United States has declined this month, the economy in Asia has recovered, the import volume of crude oil in China has increased significantly, and the recovery of demand has supported the international oil price. However, the high level of inflation in the western developed economies has hurt the global economy and undermined the international oil market.

In January, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. As of January 31, the average market price was 5748 yuan/ton, up 2.35% from the beginning of the month and 5.96% year on year. This month, PTA plant maintenance devices were restarted frequently, and the load was significantly increased. Among them, 2.4 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical, 3.3 million tons of Yisheng New Materials and 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo have been restarted successively and are now in normal operation. In terms of new capacity, Jiatong Energy 1 # 2.5 million tons of units, of which 1.25 million tons of units will produce high-quality products at the end of January 2022, and the other 1.25 million tons of units will produce high-quality products at the beginning of January. Another 1.25 million ton new unit of Shandong Weilian Chemical has not been officially commissioned.

The price of ethylene glycol recovered in January. On the one hand, it was driven by the oil price and its own low valuation. On the other hand, it was due to the reduction and conversion of large units, which boosted market confidence. The spot price rose by about 8% in the whole month. However, the supply and demand structure of glycol fundamentals in the medium and long term is still weak, and it is expected that the probability of future platform shocks will increase.

In January, the start-up rate of the yarn mill and weaving mill fell to the freezing point due to the Spring Festival holiday. At present, most enterprises are still in the shutdown stage, and the production recovery is later than the upstream. It is expected to resume the start-up in the first ten days of February. In addition, due to the high stock level of raw materials in some factories before the holiday, and the overall weakness of new orders after the holiday, the order reception situation is not ideal, and the recovery of demand side is not obvious.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the current international crude oil market is highly volatile, and the cost support of staple fiber still exists. The downstream terminal market will gradually resume work after the festival, and there will be a wave of replenishment demand for staple fiber. It is expected that the price of staple fiber will fluctuate slightly with the cost in February. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and the resumption of industrial chain.

From January 1 to January 30, 2023, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was reduced in a narrow range. The spot market price in East China was 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 0.29%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that the electrolytic manganese market has stopped falling and recovered since August. Although the increase in August and September was less than 1%, the increase in October was 3.59%, and the electrolytic manganese market began to recover. From the weekly bar chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a temporary stable operation for most of the time, and entered a narrow price decline in December.

In terms of manganese ore: the growth of the manganese ore market slowed down, and the enthusiasm of the production side to take the goods decreased. The market transactions were dominated by traders. With the continuous rise of the northern oxide ore, Gabon’s uncertainty fermentation, the closing situation intensified, and the increase in the offer was relatively obvious. The southern delivery channel was relatively stable, and the stock was basically completed before the year. Although the mentality was also with the rising mood, the manufacturers basically entered the holiday cycle, and the circulation situation was poor. The oxidized ore in Tianjin Port rose by 1 yuan/ton, Australia’s 48 yuan/ton, Gabon’s 45.5 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi-carbonic acid 36.5-37 yuan/ton. The price of South Africa’s high-speed railway rose to 34-35 yuan/ton due to the low inventory in the near future; The price of Qinzhou Port – Macao Block is 47-47.5 yuan/tonne, the price of Gabon Block is around 45 yuan/tonne, the price of semi-carbonic acid in South Africa is 39.5-40 yuan/tonne, and the South African high-speed railway will rise to 33.5 yuan/tonne.

After entering December, the electrolytic manganese market fluctuated and declined, with a slight decrease of about 100 yuan/ton per week. At the beginning of January, the trend of December continued, and the price declined in a narrow range. The domestic mainstream price is 15400-15600 yuan/ton, and the overall holiday atmosphere of the market is relatively strong in January due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, and the trading volume is slightly cold. In terms of supply, the current operating rate has not changed much. The ex-factory price of domestic mainstream manufacturers is around 15400-15600 yuan/ton, and the manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price. In terms of downstream demand, the holiday is approaching, and the winter storage in the downstream is basically coming to an end. The market mentality is generally stable. In terms of steel recruitment, the performance is average, and the price falls, affecting the market mentality. In general, the current electrolytic manganese market has maintained a weak operation as a whole. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected to maintain a stable, medium and weak operation in the short term. The market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

The domestic spot market of silicon and manganese remained stable as a whole, and the merchants’ price sentiment continued, and the transaction was relatively cold. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia (the specification is FeMN68Si18) was around 7150-7250 yuan/ton on January 13. The power rationing in some southern regions has eased slightly. It is said that a new round of power rationing may start again. The enthusiasm of manufacturers to resume production is low. The overall stock of manufacturers is tight, and orders are basically full in January. This week (01.12): the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) is 59.65% nationwide, 0.82% lower than last week; The average daily output is 28519 tons, minus 37 tons.

Relevant data:

Customs data showed that the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder in December 2022 was about 5003.818 tons, down about 16.6% month on month and up 47.85% year on year. In December 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder was about 24929.7 tons, down about 2.28% month-on-month and 28.56% at the same time.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 174.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 46.30% year-on-year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on January 15 was 45.79, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.79% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 154.67% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from 2033.75 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2020.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.68%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 17.21%; The market price of ammonium chloride was consolidated at a high level, with the market price of 1157.50 yuan/ton, which showed a downward trend at the weekend. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weakened.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late January, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The recent low level of the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated, and the cost support is general. The market prices of the downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a small fluctuation in recent years.

According to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of January 13, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 5675.00 yuan/ton, up 1.34% from the same period last week. In the short term, DMF is mainly strong, with stable supply and general purchasing atmosphere.

This week, the domestic DMF price is mainly strong. At present, the mainstream price range is 5600.00 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF market price has increased by 1.34%, the operating rate is mainly stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, the logistics is slowly running, and the manufacturer gives up profits and takes orders.

Chemical commodity index: On January 12, the chemical index was 910 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 35.00% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 52.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts from the Business Agency believe that the DMF market is expected to operate in a stable and strong manner in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of Business News Agency, as of January 6, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8233.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of Tuesday (January 3), and was 1.20% lower than that of December 6, 2022 (the reference price of melamine was 8333.33 yuan/ton).

The melamine market this week was mainly stable. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen slightly, the cost support has increased, the operating rate of melamine market has declined, and the output has decreased slightly. In addition to the export support, the enterprises have a low mentality, but the performance of domestic downstream demand is not good, the purchase is scattered and rigid, the market trading atmosphere is stagnant, and the price fluctuates steadily.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 6. On January 5, the reference price of urea was 2725.00, up 1% from January 1 (2698.00).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that at present, the price of raw material urea has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the industry operating rate is low, and the export order is still good, which has some support for the melamine market, but the downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, and the enthusiasm for centralized stock is not high. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will probably stagnate, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market information.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. From January 3 to 6 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of the domestic methanol market at the East China port dropped from 2708 yuan/ton to 2680 yuan/ton. During the period, the price fell by 1.05%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31% and a year-on-year increase of 12.25%. Due to the strong crude oil during the New Year’s Day period and the demand for bottom-seeking raised before the holiday, the sentiment of the mainland market returned after the holiday was positive, and the price of gas support was strongly pulled up. With the decline of the crude oil and futures market, the market price in the second half of the week recovered synchronously, the sentiment of the mainland returned to rationality, the buying gas weakened, and the methanol price fell from a high point.

As of the close of January 6, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2635 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2640 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2595 yuan/ton, and closed at 2632 yuan/ton, up 4% or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1298578, the position was 1157579, and the daily increase was 67700.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of 1.6:

Region/ Price

Shanxi Province/ 2200 yuan/ton ex-factory

Liaoning region/ 2350-2430 yuan/ton

Anhui Province/ About 2500-2550 yuan/ton

Henan Province/ 2400-2520 yuan/ton

On the cost side, near the end of the year, the coal mines in the main production areas that have completed the annual production began to reduce production or stop production, and the coal production at the end of the year fell after the winter safety inspection and the weak and stable operation of market sales. With the steady promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply of coal, the demand side lacks substantial support at the end of the year, and the short-term coal price will remain stable and weak. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Henan heart-to-heart device restarted, and the demand for dimethyl ether increased; Downstream acetic acid: after the New Year’s Day, the demand for acetic acid may increase due to the negative increase of Hualu Hengsheng unit; Downstream formaldehyde: some units in Wen’an, Hebei, Liuyang, Henan, and Jining, Shandong are expected to shut down, and some units in Kaifeng, Henan, Jining, Shandong, and Heze, Shandong are planned to reduce the demand for formaldehyde. Demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, Xinjiang Zhongtai 200000 t/a, Chongqing Cabelle 850000 t/a and Sichuan Jiuyuan 500000 t/a units are planned to resume, and the supply is increasing. The methanol supply side is negative.

In the external market, as of the close of January 5, the closing price of the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $371.00-372.00/ton, up $7/ton. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 101.75-102.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 305.00-306.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 371.00-372.00 USD/ton./7 USD/ton

Europe and America/ US Gulf/ 101.75-102.75 cents/gallon./0 cents/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 305.00-306.00 euro/ton./- 5 euro/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the cost of methanol will be supported or weakened, the supply will be abundant, and the demand will be reduced. The methanol analyst of the Business Agency predicted that the domestic methanol market might continue to be weak.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.30-1.6) fluctuated downward. The average domestic market price was 208160 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 202360 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.79%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price rose continuously after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors, and began to decline after 23 years.

In the futures market, this week’s shock was the main factor, with a weekly drop of more than 2.5%. In the macro aspect, the hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve once again affected the market, and there was no intention to cut interest rates in 2023. The US non-agricultural data warmed up again. The market’s risk aversion gradually increased, affecting the market mentality, and the metal market generally fell.

In the spot market, affected by the futures market, the tin price has been continuously reduced this week. From the basic point of view, the current operating rate has not changed much, and the overall increase is small. The overall performance is a loose supply pattern. In terms of downstream demand, there is a certain demand for stock preparation before the holiday. Downstream enterprises purchase on bargain hunting, and domestic inventory has declined slightly. However, as the holiday approaches, the stock preparation in the downstream is basically coming to an end. Some enterprises have introduced holiday arrangements, which is a negative market mentality. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future market will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a broad volatility trend.

 
The non-ferrous index stood at 1179 points on January 8, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.34% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 94.23% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were seven commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2023 (1.2-1.6), with the top three commodities rising respectively being metal praseodymium (2.19%), antimony (1.67%) and neodymium oxide (1.30%). There are 10 commodities with a month-on-month decline, and 2 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were nickel (- 9.87%), aluminum (- 5.30%) and silver (- 3.84%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.93%.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, 2023, the domestic butanone market price reference was 8500 yuan/ton. Compared with January 3, 2023 (8600 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 100 yuan/ton, or 1.16%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the first week (1.3-1.6) after the New Year’s Day, the domestic butanone market was generally weak and fell. This week, the downstream demand for butanone was weak, the trading atmosphere in the market was cold, and the effective support for the butanone market was insufficient. The overall focus of the market was moving downward. The overall reduction of the butanone market price was about 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, as of January 6, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and some high-end prices are around 8700-8900 yuan/ton. The overall price difference between high and low prices in the field is large.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream construction of butanone is generally started, and some factories have stopped. The downstream demand side has given loose market support. Butanone data engineers from the business community believe that in the short term, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is difficult to improve. Butanone market prices tend to be narrow and weak. More attention should be paid to major factories and changes in market news.

From December 23, 2022 to December 30, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi was lowered. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6337.5 yuan/ton last weekend and 6155 yuan/ton this weekend, down 2.88%.

On December 30, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 212.24, unchanged from yesterday, 8.31% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and 350.14% higher than the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The downstream deep processing industry has weakened as a whole, and has cracked down on the coal tar market. Recently, the coking enterprises have started to work slightly, and the tar supply has improved slightly. This week, the tar bidding price has declined as a whole.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market rose for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise, and fell in December.

In terms of the industrial chain, the commodity prices of the downstream deep processing industry rose and fell by half this week, with the overall decline more or less. The prices of anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch fell, while the industrial naphthalene rose slightly. With the decline in the price of raw tar, the downstream profit situation has been restored and the operating rate has been generally stable.

The coal tar market continued to decline this week, with a downward range of 100-200 yuan/ton, including 6210 yuan/ton for mainstream prices in Shandong, 6100-6200 yuan/ton for Hebei, 6210 yuan/ton for Henan, and 6050-6200 yuan/ton for Shanxi. In terms of supply, coking enterprises continued to increase production this week, with a slightly loose supply of tar and a weak mentality. The recent trend of the downstream deep processing industry has been mixed, with more falls and less rises overall. The downstream has a strong price depressing mentality, lacks downstream support, and the tar price has dropped significantly. On the whole, negative factors in the tar market are dominant at present, the market is expected to be loose in supply, and the tar price is expected to remain stable and weak in the future.

DOTP prices fluctuated and consolidated in December

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 30, the average price of DOTP was 9800 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the average price of 9875 yuan/ton on December 1. Weak demand for cost consolidation and weak consolidation of DOTP price.

Price consolidation of raw materials in December

According to the data of the business association; As of December 30, the price of isooctanol was 9833.33 yuan/ton, up 5.42% from 9233.33 yuan/ton on December 1. The effect of easing epidemic prevention and control was less than expected, the price of isooctanol rose in shock, the cost of DOTP was adjusted in shock, and the momentum for DOTP to rise remained.

According to the data of the business community, as of December 30, the PTA price was 5616.36 yuan/ton, down from 5553.33 yuan/ton on December 1, and up 1.13%. The international crude oil price fell first and then rose, the confidence of downstream textile enterprises recovered, downstream orders increased, the market periodically replenished, PTA demand recovered, PTA prices rose in shock, and DOTP gained momentum.

Future market expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business association, in December, the plasticizer DOTP raw material isooctanol was adjusted by shocks, PTA prices rose by shocks, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material rose by shocks; For the downstream, the epidemic prevention and control measures continued to advance, the recovery of downstream enterprises accelerated, and the demand for DOTP warmed up. In the future, the demand for rising DOTP costs will recover. It is expected that DOTP will rise in a volatile way in the future.

In December 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market rose in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 186910 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 205410 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 9.9% month on month.

On December 28, the nonferrous index stood at 1219 points, up 10 points from yesterday, down 20.74% from 1538 points (2021-10-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.82% from 607 points, the lowest point on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past six months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and the overall decline.

In terms of the spot market, the overall volatility rose this month. At the end of the year, the manufacturer’s quotation is more cautious, and some enterprises have a strong price mentality. Affected by higher prices, the overall market trading is average. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market as a whole has not changed much, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the market supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. Although the holiday is approaching, the goods preparation before the holiday is average. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

In 2022, the domestic sulphuric acid market will rise first and then fall. At the beginning of the year, the average price of the domestic mainstream sulphuric acid market was 645 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of the mainstream sulphuric acid market was 291.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 54.78%. The lowest price of the whole year was in the middle of September, with a price of 228.00 yuan/ton. The highest price of the whole year was in the middle of April, with a price of 1205.00 yuan/ton. The maximum amplitude of the year was 81.08%.

From the K column chart of sulfuric acid month, the sulfuric acid market will rise first and then fall in 2022. The highest increase was 42.86% in March and the highest decrease was 53.92% in August. On December 25, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 46.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 75.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 46.48% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Review of sulphuric acid market in 2022

The first stage: from the beginning of January to the middle of April, the sulfuric acid market rose sharply. After the Spring Festival, upstream and downstream sulphuric acid enterprises began to work one after another. The upstream sulfur price rose sharply, with strong cost support. The price rose from 2026.67 yuan/ton in early January to 3543.33 yuan/ton in mid April, an increase of 74.84%. The downstream titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand was good. The price of titanium dioxide fluctuates narrowly at about 21000 yuan/ton. The downstream formic acid market rose sharply, with the price rising from 4300.00 yuan/ton in early January to 9633.33 yuan/ton in mid April, up 124.03%. The upstream and downstream make joint efforts, and the price of sulfuric acid rises sharply. The price rose from 645.00 yuan/ton in early January to 1208.33 yuan/ton in mid April, an increase of 87.34%.

The second stage: from mid April to mid September, the sulphuric acid market fell sharply. Downstream market fell rapidly and demand was seriously insufficient. The price of downstream hydrofluoric acid fell from 11550.00 yuan/ton in mid April to 10000.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 13.42%. The price of titanium dioxide in the downstream fell from 21,100.00 yuan/ton in mid April to 16,350.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 22.51%. The upstream support dropped sharply. The upstream sulfur price fell from 3543.33 yuan/ton in mid April to 1143.33 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 67.73%. Multiple negative, the price of sulfuric acid fell sharply. The price dropped from 1208.33 yuan/ton in mid April to 228.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a drop of 81.13%.

The third stage: from mid September to mid October, the sulfuric acid market rose sharply. The upstream sulfur market stopped falling and rebounded. The price rose from 1143.33 yuan/ton in mid September to 1560.00 yuan/ton in mid October, up 36.44%. The upstream market rose sharply, with good cost support. The price of sulfuric acid rose from 228.00 yuan/ton in mid September to 406.00 yuan/ton in mid October, an increase of 78.07%.

The fourth stage: from the middle of October to the end of December, the sulfuric acid market declined slightly. The downstream titanium dioxide shall be leveled at low position. The price of titanium dioxide fluctuated at a low level around 16000.00 yuan/ton. The downstream phosphoric acid market fell sharply. The price of phosphoric acid dropped from 10530.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decline of 11.68%. The upstream sulfur market fell in a narrow range. The price of sulfur fell from 1560.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 1370.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decline of 12.18%. The upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is weakened. The price of sulfuric acid fell slightly. The price dropped from 426.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 291.67 yuan/ton at the end of December, a drop of 31.53%.

Future outlook: In the first ten days of January, the sulfuric acid market may fall mainly due to slight shocks. The upstream sulfur market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The titanium dioxide market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a low level, while the phosphate fertilizer market was general, and the demand in the lower reaches was weakened. On the whole, the sulfuric acid market has no positive support, and the price of sulfuric acid may fall slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9212.50 yuan/ton, 0.55% higher than the price on Tuesday (December 13), and 0.82% higher than the price on December 1.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. The market price of raw propylene rose slightly this week, and the cost support was strengthened. On Tuesday, the factory shipped better, the inventory pressure eased, and the downstream kept following up moderately. The market operated at a constant price without pressure. On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 8900-9000 yuan/ton.

For upstream propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene on December 15 was 7634.60, up 1.44% compared with December 13 (7524.60).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is still there, the supply side is not under pressure, supporting the market price mentality, and the demand side is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be stable and strong, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Last week (December 12-18, 2022), the upstream and downstream market of nylon filament was weak, the market continued to be weak, and the price continued to fall slightly. The supply of nylon filament remained sufficient and stable, the raw material caprolactam fell to the horizontal, the spot supply was sufficient, the weakness of nylon chips followed up, and the negative impact on the cost side of nylon filament, so the manufacturer’s offer fell again. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, last week (December 12-18, 2022), the price of nylon filament became weaker and lower. As of December 18, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (Premium; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 16,980 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a weekly drop of 0.82%; Nylon POY (Premium; 86D/24F) quoted 14725 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton lower than the previous week’s price, with a weekly drop of 1.17%; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 17750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a weekly drop of 0.56%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Raw material caprolactam: Last week (December 12-18, 2022), the domestic caprolactam fell to a horizontal position. In the early stage, the raw material pure benzene market weakened due to the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, and the cost side was not supported enough. Domestic caprolactam stock is abundant, and the demand side lags behind. The price stabilized after falling, and caprolactam price trend is expected to continue the weak finishing market in the short term.

Raw material PA6: The weakness of domestic PA6 market continued in the middle of December, and the spot price fell by a narrow margin. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 13433.33 yuan/ton on December 18, up or down by – 3.59% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Supply and demand

At present, the commencement of nylon filament shows a downward trend, with overcapacity overflow, high inventory consolidation, and the market is dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the downstream demand shows that the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

In the later stage, the upstream raw materials were weak and low. The nylon filament market was not sufficiently supported at the cost end. The supply of goods in the market was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. The downstream construction would decline, and the overall demand for textile terminals would decrease. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend is temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7450 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 11.19% year on year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX’s external market has risen. As of the 15th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 914-916 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 932-934 dollars/ton CFR China. The rise in external price is good for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has risen slightly. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is supported, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is stable.

This week, the crude oil price trend rose. As of the 15th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.11 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel. The US dollar continued to fall, benefiting risky assets. The US dollar index fell sharply on Tuesday, after data showed that the growth of US core consumer prices in November was lower than expected, which further strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase. It gives the capital market a chance to take a breather. The weakening of the US dollar makes the valuation of crude oil denominated in US dollars higher in a disguised way, and the oil price has the power to rise. The Keystone oil pipeline of the United States and Canada leaked, causing about 14000 barrels of crude oil to spill in the United States, becoming one of the largest oil spills in the United States in the past decade. With the gradual liberalization of China’s epidemic prevention measures, fuel demand is expected to rebound. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, which affected the domestic market price of paraxylene to maintain stability.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the 16th, the average price of the PTA market was 5300-5400 yuan/ton. In terms of PTA supply, PTA started this week more stably. At present, the industry started at around 66%. Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, PTA market prices rose slightly. However, under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow recovery in the downstream polyester industry, the negative pressure has increased. In the textile terminal market, demand remained weak in the off-season, and new orders at the terminal continued to decline. Since the beginning of November, with the terminal texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and the weaving manufacturers’ holidays, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 50%. On the whole, the downstream market is weak, which affects the domestic market price of paraxylene to remain stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst of the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is in a long short game. The expectation of the global economic recession remains unchanged. The oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. There is still a risk of decline in the short term. The terminal downstream operating rate is lower, and the downstream demand is expected to decline. The contradiction between PTA supply and demand is prominent, and the price is not motivated enough. It is expected that the price of paraxylene market will remain stable in the later period.

From December 2, 2022 to December 9, the bidding price of crude benzol will rise, at 5556 yuan/ton last weekend and 5607 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.92%.

Crude oil: Some economic data in the United States outperformed expectations, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply. International crude oil futures closed lower on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 71.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.55 US dollars or 0.76%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel, down 1.02 dollars or 1.32%. The market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere, and the oil market was dragged down by the fear of economic recession. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week will put pressure on oil prices and weaken energy demand.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date./Adjusted Price./Adjusted Amount

November 2./7200./- 250/

November 4./7000./- 200

November 22./6800./- 200

November 29./6500./- 300

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 300 yuan/ton on November 29, 2022, and the current price is 6500 yuan/ton.

Other enterprise quotations: Chambroad Petrochemical quoted 6550 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6453 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, slightly recovered in late August and early September, and fell continuously in October and November.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the trend of crude oil in the first half of this week was volatile, and the downstream styrene was stronger. With the continuous decline of pure benzene, the downstream purchasing sentiment was boosted. Under the triple influence, the price of pure benzene rose slightly by about 50 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, as the crude oil weakened again and the downstream styrene market was weak, the overall market sentiment declined, and the price of pure benzene weakened again slightly, down about 50-75 yuan/ton. The downstream gas buying also declined. Overall, the crude oil price fell nearly 10% this week, which had a great impact on the market. However, the recent supply of pure benzene was relatively sufficient, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. The price of pure benzene continued to weaken slightly, and the price of hydrogenated benzene basically fluctuated with that of pure benzene, Downward trend is dominant this week.

Crude benzol market rose by a narrow margin this week. The bidding price of domestic mainstream production areas remained within the range of 30-50 yuan/ton as a whole. The price of Shandong, the main production area, was 5580 yuan/ton this week, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of supply, coke enterprises maintained the original production limit this week, with limited changes in the operating rate, and the overall supply was slightly strained. In the future, it is expected that the changes of the positive and negative factors in the crude benzol market in the near future are limited. It is expected that the price in the future will remain mainly in consolidation operation, with a limited range of fluctuations. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil and styrene and the commencement of the hydrogenation benzene unit.

Acetic anhydride prices fell in shock this week

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of acetic anhydride fell in a volatile manner this week. As of December 9, the price of acetic anhydride was 5566.67 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from 5700 yuan/ton on December 4. The decline of acetic anhydride remained this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly.

The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that as of December 9, the price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, down 3.98% from 3332.50 yuan/ton on December 4. The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and stabilized this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of methanol price of the business community that as of December 9, the price of methanol was 2673.33 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from 2670 yuan/ton on December 4. As a whole, the methanol price was volatile and stable this week, and the market operators entered the market cautiously. The methanol market was weak and stable, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride was weakened.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, the acetic acid enterprises resumed shipment, the supply of acetic acid increased, the price of acetic acid fell weakly, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell; Downstream demand was weak, and acetic anhydride prices fell in shock. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is weak and tends to stabilize. The demand is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is weak and falls.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline was stable after rising this week. On December 2, the price was 10438 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 10800 yuan/ton, up 3.47% from last week and 20% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: the fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream are more wait-and-see, with average purchase intention; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, the stocks of pure benzene at ports in East China decreased slightly, and the supply pressure eased. On Friday (December 9), the price of pure benzene was 6514 yuan/ton, 0.31% lower than that of last week and 1.46% higher than that of the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic nitric acid price is stable this week. The price was 2433 yuan/ton on December 2, and 2433 yuan/ton on December 9. The price was flat last week, up 2.82% from the same period last year.

Due to the tightening of spot supply of aniline in northern regions, the market is bullish, and the price has risen continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, so it is difficult to greatly increase the demand for aniline. As the good supply turns weak, aniline becomes stable and increases on the sidelines.

3、 Future market expectation

At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, and there is no more good news in the market. It is expected that aniline will stabilize in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2640 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 0.08%, down 12.73% compared with the same period last year. On December 11, the commodity index of light soda ash was 135.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.41% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 114.38% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2550-2750 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. At present, soda ash enterprises maintain low inventory.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glass fell this week. On Monday, the average market price was 18.33 yuan/square meter, and on the weekend, the average market price was 18.08 yuan/ton. The price fell 1.36%, down 30.94% year on year. The spot glass market continued to decline slightly this week. As the demand for expediting at the end of the year is fair in the south, the market demand for entering winter in the north is light, and the winter storage plan is less than expected. The spot delivery of glass is flexible.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of rising commodities, 3 kinds of falling commodities, and 0 kind of zero rising or falling commodities in the list of prices of chlor alkali industry in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (0.36%) and light soda ash (0.08%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-2.25%), calcium carbide (-0.44%) and PVC (-0.14%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.48%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the price of domestic soda ash is generally stable and slightly dynamic. Recently, soda ash enterprises mainly maintain low inventory, and the overall trading and investment atmosphere is ordinary. The downstream of soda ash is still mostly purchased on demand. The game between upstream and downstream supply and demand is expected to be dominated by the consolidation of soda ash prices in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 9, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 15500.00 yuan/ton, which fell by 0.8% compared with the same period last week. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16000 yuan/ton, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent superior products was 15,500.00 yuan/ton, the overall market was stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16,000 yuan/ton, the price of PMMA was stable, the downstream just needed to purchase was mainly, the manufacturers gave up profits and took orders. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. was 15,500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On December 8, the rubber and plastic index was 666 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.17% lower than the highest point 1060 points (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and 26.14% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

PMMA analysts from the business community believe that in the short term, PMMA is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic NMP market fell in a ladder manner in November, and the prices in some regions had fallen to near the cost line by the end of the month. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the month was 28000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 22333 yuan/ton, with a decline of 20.24%.

2、 Analysis and review

As of November 25, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/October 27

East China./20000-21000 yuan/ton

Central China/19500-20000 yuan/ton

Southwest China/19000-20000 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic NMP market turned sharply downward, and its performance fell continuously throughout the month, mainly due to the impact of cost and demand. On the cost side: In November, the BDO market fell sharply unilaterally, by 31.27%. The contradiction between supply and demand is growing. Most manufacturers do not publish bidding prices. The market guidance price is reduced by about 500 yuan/ton every week, and the price is continuously lowered. The external guidance price of individual enterprises has dropped to 9500 yuan/ton, maintaining a small number of contract users. At present, the BDO price has fallen below the cost line. It is expected that the BDO industry will actively limit and reduce production in the future.

Demand side: Affected by the cost of raw materials, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the NMP market, and the willingness to purchase downstream is not strong. At the same time, domestic public health and security incidents have escalated, and transportation in some regions is not smooth. The raw materials of some main materials of superimposed lithium batteries have risen sharply, while the production and sales of some lithium battery manufacturers have declined. According to statistics, since 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, resulting in the demand for lithium salt exceeding expectations, and the price of lithium carbonate, the main raw material of lithium ion batteries, has risen sharply. According to the data released on November 23 by the business community, the average spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate was close to 590000 yuan/ton. At the beginning of January last year, the price of the raw material was about 50000 yuan/ton, up nearly 12 times. Under the pressure of cost, lithium battery enterprises are not willing to purchase, and the demand for NMP is further suppressed.

3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts of the business agency believe that the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the purchase intention is not strong. At the same time, the price of raw material BDO is likely to continue to fall back. It is expected that the NMP market will continue to decline to the bottom in the near future, and the NMP market will decline to the near cost line for consolidation.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene declined in November. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 13.70% year on year.

In November, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600,000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene declined. In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, and the PX external market price fell. As of the 29th, the closing price was 909-911 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 927-929 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is sufficient, and the domestic market for paraxylene has declined.

In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, by 9.63%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.20 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $84.25 per barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of paraxylene fell due to the cost.

In November, the domestic PTA spot market declined. As of the end of the month, the average price in the East China market was 5511 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from the beginning of the month. With the improvement of processing costs, the production intention of PTA plants has risen, and most domestic devices have completed annual maintenance. At present, the operating rate of the industry remains above 74%. In addition, PTA’s new capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated warehouse is expected to rise. The order of textile terminal enterprises is sluggish, and the drag on the demand side may be more obvious. After the end of the traditional peak season of “Jin Jiu Yin Shi”, the downstream polyester plants are more willing to ease the inventory pressure through the way of profit giving promotion and price for volume. However, because the terminal textile enterprises are not willing to take the goods and mainly purchase for rigid demand, the effect of inventory reduction is not good, the polyester plants are forced to choose to reduce the load, the downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is declining.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Downstream demand is poor, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, polyester inventory pressure rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA prices remain low. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will decline slightly in the later period.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic sulfuric acid market price is temporarily stable this week, with the price of sulfuric acid being 321.67 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 48.81%. On December 4, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 50.07, unchanged from yesterday, down 73.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 58.85% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose in a narrow range, with the sulfur price rising from about 1420 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1450.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.11%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 27.50% year on year. The upstream market rose in shock and cost support increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 12071.43 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 12742.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.56%. A year-on-year decrease of 0.68%. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 23.34%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has been surging recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

In November, the domestic polyester staple fiber price continued to be weak and fluctuated downward. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on November 30 was 7372 yuan/ton, 4.90% lower than the price of 7752 at the beginning of the month, and 2.72% higher than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 6592 (settlement price 6586), down 2.17% from the beginning of the month.

Industrial chain: 1. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over. OPEC+again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022, and crude oil prices fell in November. At the end of the month, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at 80.55 dollars/barrel, down about 6.9% for the whole month. 2. In the first ten days of this month, PTA became stronger due to the positive impact of crude oil and its own supply. However, since the middle of the year, the new device is about to be launched, the cost is weakening, and the demand is not good. Under the superposition of many bad news, the PTA spot price is down, and the futures trend is stronger than the spot full month futures. 3. The fall in crude oil price has weakened the support for ethylene glycol cost, and the downstream demand has remained sluggish. However, due to the impact of poor efficiency, the unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased recently, and the operating rate remains low. In the case of a large decline in the previous period, the price of ethylene glycol was also at a relatively low level. Ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded slightly throughout the month. 4. The market situation of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn continued to be weak this month, with a small decline in prices and flat trading. As a whole, it was slow to go to the warehouse, mainly through negotiation.

On the supply and demand side: the stocks of staple fiber manufacturers continued to increase this month, and some large factories reduced production. The domestic sales of terminal textiles are weak, while the export sales are poor. Weaving enterprises have further reduced their burden. The demand for raw materials continues to be weak, mainly for the purchase of rigid demand. The production and sales of staple fibers continue to be sluggish, and the price continues to fall.

Analysts from the business community believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The characteristics of the downstream off-season are obvious, and the terminal demand continues to be weak. It is expected that after December, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance will further increase, and the stock of staple fibers may continue to accumulate. The staple fiber market may still be weak in December. Pay attention to changes in raw material prices, dynamic changes in units and fluctuations in downstream orders.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the overall trend of mixed xylene fell this month, the price rebounded slightly in the middle of the month, and the decline widened in the last ten days. The price of mixed xylene was 8180 yuan/ton on November 1 and 7540 yuan/ton on November 28, down 7.82% from the beginning of the month and up 24.63% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the tight supply of mixed xylene in the early stage, the price is relatively high compared with toluene. However, under the background of poor overall downstream demand and weak market negotiation, crude oil fell broadly in the month and the cost lost its support, leading to a short mentality of the industry. The price of mixed xylene fell and the decline widened at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by the epidemic, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market fell by more than 10% this month. On November 28, the price of mixed xylene imported by South Korea was 837 dollars/ton, down 148 dollars/ton month on month, or 15.02%.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 17.81% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, the price of OX in East China fell broadly this month, at 9300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 8.6% lower than the beginning of the month and 23.19% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the overall gasoline price in Shandong Province fluctuated positively in the first half of this month, and began to fall next month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8159 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7919 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the beginning of the month and 1.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The fundamentals of the mixed xylene market are not good, the short-term trend of crude oil is weak, and the demand is weak. Under the pressure of a negative atmosphere, it is expected that there is still a possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.

In November, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell first and then rose. The price of calcium carbide fell from 3883.33 yuan/ton on November 1 to 3750.00 yuan/ton on November 29, a decrease of 3.43%. The price at the end of the month fell by 28.34% year-on-year.

On November 28, the carbide commodity index was 98.25, up 1.31 points from yesterday, down 53.71% from the peak of 212.23 points (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 77.06% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the supply side, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell slightly this month.

From the weekly K column chart of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide fell slightly in November, with a maximum drop of 2.61% in a single week.

Cost end: the price of coke fell slightly

The overall price of carbon dioxide in the upstream of carbide fell slightly this month. In November, the average market price of domestic semi coke feedstock fell from 1751.67 yuan/ton on November 1 to 1715 yuan/ton on November 28, a decrease of 2.09%. The upstream carbon price fell slightly, and the carbide cost support weakened.

Demand side: PVC market price drops

The PVC market price in the downstream of calcium carbide fell sharply this month. The PVC market price in this month fell from 6021.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6002.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.31%, and the price at the end of the month fell 34.96% year-on-year. The ex factory price of 1,4 butanediol fell sharply this month, from 14550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9716.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 33.22%. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell sharply this month, and the downstream demand was insufficient.

In the future: in the first ten days of December, the carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has fallen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is insufficient. However, the market of 1,4 butanediol and PVC in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in mid to early December, mainly due to consolidation.

The market of ammonium chloride rose slightly in November. At the beginning of the month, the market demand for ammonium chloride was sluggish, and the price fell slightly; Weak and stable due to cost support in the month; Winter storage was started at the end of this month. In the atmosphere of rising prices of compound fertilizer, urea and other fertilizers, the factory prices of some ammonium chloride enterprises were raised, and the market quotation was rising. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the price of ammonium chloride was 995 yuan/ton, up 3.38% from 962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly low was 957 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand: in the middle and late November, the price of compound fertilizer rose, the commencement of construction increased (2.4% at the beginning of the month, 3% to 4% at the end of the month), and the purchase of raw materials increased; In addition, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in Northeast China started, and the orders of compound fertilizer/mixed fertilizer enterprises increased significantly, driving the prices of all kinds of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers up; The good demand side pushed the price of ammonium chloride up. Although the demand has increased, domestic soda production has continued 80% of the load, and the supply of ammonium chloride continues to be loose, suppressing the upward range of ammonium chloride.

In November, the price of raw material liquid ammonia rose significantly, and the cost support was stronger. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4590 yuan/ton, up 12.04% from 4096 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the supply of liquid ammonia was tightened, and in the middle of the month, there was too much temporary overhaul and maintenance of the unit, which led to the supply decline of different degrees in major production areas across the country.

Future forecast: Ammonium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the cost side has risen significantly, the demand side has increased slightly, and although the supply side is still loose, it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to rise tentatively in the later period.

Price trend

In late November, the domestic POM market finished sideways, and the overall price performance was very high. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM at the beginning of the month was 13800 yuan/ton, and on November 25, the average price was 13866.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.48%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market has been reorganized in a volatile manner recently, with a small fluctuation range and abundant on-site supply. However, the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the domestic methanol market is mainly weak in the short term.

In terms of supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level, and the current industry load has decreased compared with that before, more than 80%. The processing profit of the enterprise fluctuates in a narrow range, with a gross profit level of about 2300 yuan per ton, which is acceptable.

Demand: Although the load of POM industry decreased this week, the market supply turned to be abundant. The mentality of producers and traders has been supported by the rise in ex factory prices, but the demand has weakened recently, and there is much room for profit in the on-site shipment negotiations. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to prepare goods is average, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

The POM market was weak in late November. The load of domestic polymerization plants decreased by a narrow margin, and some spot logistics were not smooth due to the impact of public health events. On the whole, the supply was abundant. The demand side is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. It is estimated that the POM market may enter the weak consolidation market in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly this week. By the end of this week, spot copper had offered 66345 yuan/ton, down 1.97% from 67680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.79% year on year.

Copper weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past three months, the price has risen by 6 or fallen by 5, even by 1. Recently, the copper price has recovered slightly after the early rise.

Macro aspect: the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council: resolutely oppose the two tendencies, and continue to rectify “layer by layer”; The “big hawk” of the Federal Reserve: further interest rate hikes are required to reach the “restrictive level”, at least 5% – 5.25%. So far, the impact of interest rate hikes on inflation is limited. Recently, the officials of the Federal Reserve made another hawkish statement that the Federal Reserve will further increase interest rates. The 50BP interest rate increase is also a significant increase in interest rates. Therefore, the decline of the dollar has slowed down, and copper prices are also under pressure.

Supply side: LME does not restrict the delivery of Russian metal, which also reduces the risk of market position squeeze. However, domestic and foreign inventories are still at a low level, and the inventory has increased slightly this week. At present, the overhaul of copper smelting enterprises in Fujian market in South China has been completed, and the output has gradually rebounded. However, although the epidemic interference in Henan, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other places continued, it did not affect production, and the impact was more on the speed of transportation and delivery. Therefore, the short-term electrolytic copper output will continue to increase slightly.

Demand side: The copper price rises too fast in the short term, which also hurts downstream consumption, and it is difficult to support the copper price to continue to rise significantly.

Inventory: On November 17, copper in the previous period rose 9592 tons to 59025 tons from the beginning of the week. LME copper inventory rose 3125 tons to 80025 tons, up 3.6% from the beginning of the week.

To sum up, the current macro environment is neutral. After the overhaul, the domestic copper output has rebounded. Although the inventory has increased, it is still at a low level, supporting the copper price. The downstream demand is general, and the short-term copper price is expected to fall into a pattern of shock and weakness.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of November 18, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8886.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday and 7.11% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

The epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable this week. From the supply and demand side, the supply side devices have not changed much. The downstream staged replenishment has improved the market transaction atmosphere, eased the inventory pressure, and the enterprise quotation has tentatively increased. However, with the downstream replenishment, the market atmosphere has weakened, and small orders are just needed. This week, the epoxy chloropropane market has been deadlocked.

In terms of upstream and downstream, the raw propylene has been operating weakly in the near future, and the raw glycerin has been stable in a large scale, with limited cost support for epichlorohydrin. The reference price of the downstream epoxy resin was 16833.33 on November 17, a decrease of 8.68% compared with November 1 (18433.33), which generally supported the epichlorohydrin market.

The epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is still there, the actual support for supply and demand is average, and the market game is dominated by wait-and-see. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will still be in a stalemate in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of the 18th, the average price in the domestic market was 24000 yuan/ton, down 1.64% on a weekly basis. The price of magnesium ingots fell weakly this week, with a cumulative decline of 300-500 yuan/ton. The psychology of buying up rather than buying down was obvious, and the demand remained low.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 8142.86 yuan/ton. On Friday, futures prices rose significantly and spot prices eased. The price of coke has also retreated. There is a market rumor that the capacity replacement in Inner Mongolia will maintain a natural transition state, which is not mandatory. Most coke enterprises are mainly wait-and-see.

Downstream

The price of magnesium powder and magnesium alloy in the downstream follows the weak and steady progress of magnesium ingot, and the overall demand is average, only supported by rigid demand. Under the influence of the energy crisis and exchange rate, the actual performance of foreign orders was flat.

Future market forecast

Affected by the poor demand, the market has depressed the factory quotation, and most of the industry people are cautious, but they are not optimistic about the future market. However, considering the high price of ferrosilicon and raw coal, the price of magnesium ingot is basically near the cost line at present, and the decline of magnesium ingot is limited. It is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 179.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 163.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 8.92%. A year-on-year decrease of 45.19%. On November 20, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.98, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.83% from the peak of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 139.04% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is generally

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly, from 2017.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2021.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.19%. A year-on-year drop of 18.72%; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 957.50 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Future market forecast

In late November, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has declined slightly in the near future, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.