According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. From January 3 to 6 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of the domestic methanol market at the East China port dropped from 2708 yuan/ton to 2680 yuan/ton. During the period, the price fell by 1.05%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31% and a year-on-year increase of 12.25%. Due to the strong crude oil during the New Year’s Day period and the demand for bottom-seeking raised before the holiday, the sentiment of the mainland market returned after the holiday was positive, and the price of gas support was strongly pulled up. With the decline of the crude oil and futures market, the market price in the second half of the week recovered synchronously, the sentiment of the mainland returned to rationality, the buying gas weakened, and the methanol price fell from a high point.
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As of the close of January 6, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2635 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2640 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2595 yuan/ton, and closed at 2632 yuan/ton, up 4% or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1298578, the position was 1157579, and the daily increase was 67700.
Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of 1.6:
Region/ Price
Shanxi Province/ 2200 yuan/ton ex-factory
Liaoning region/ 2350-2430 yuan/ton
Anhui Province/ About 2500-2550 yuan/ton
Henan Province/ 2400-2520 yuan/ton
On the cost side, near the end of the year, the coal mines in the main production areas that have completed the annual production began to reduce production or stop production, and the coal production at the end of the year fell after the winter safety inspection and the weak and stable operation of market sales. With the steady promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply of coal, the demand side lacks substantial support at the end of the year, and the short-term coal price will remain stable and weak. The positive cost of methanol disappeared.
Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Henan heart-to-heart device restarted, and the demand for dimethyl ether increased; Downstream acetic acid: after the New Year’s Day, the demand for acetic acid may increase due to the negative increase of Hualu Hengsheng unit; Downstream formaldehyde: some units in Wen’an, Hebei, Liuyang, Henan, and Jining, Shandong are expected to shut down, and some units in Kaifeng, Henan, Jining, Shandong, and Heze, Shandong are planned to reduce the demand for formaldehyde. Demand for methanol is mixed.
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On the supply side, Xinjiang Zhongtai 200000 t/a, Chongqing Cabelle 850000 t/a and Sichuan Jiuyuan 500000 t/a units are planned to resume, and the supply is increasing. The methanol supply side is negative.
In the external market, as of the close of January 5, the closing price of the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $371.00-372.00/ton, up $7/ton. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 101.75-102.75 cents/gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 305.00-306.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.
Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down
Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 371.00-372.00 USD/ton./7 USD/ton
Europe and America/ US Gulf/ 101.75-102.75 cents/gallon./0 cents/gallon
Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 305.00-306.00 euro/ton./- 5 euro/ton
In the future, it is predicted that the cost of methanol will be supported or weakened, the supply will be abundant, and the demand will be reduced. The methanol analyst of the Business Agency predicted that the domestic methanol market might continue to be weak.
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