Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend is temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7450 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 11.19% year on year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX’s external market has risen. As of the 15th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 914-916 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 932-934 dollars/ton CFR China. The rise in external price is good for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has risen slightly. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is supported, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is stable.

This week, the crude oil price trend rose. As of the 15th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.11 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel. The US dollar continued to fall, benefiting risky assets. The US dollar index fell sharply on Tuesday, after data showed that the growth of US core consumer prices in November was lower than expected, which further strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase. It gives the capital market a chance to take a breather. The weakening of the US dollar makes the valuation of crude oil denominated in US dollars higher in a disguised way, and the oil price has the power to rise. The Keystone oil pipeline of the United States and Canada leaked, causing about 14000 barrels of crude oil to spill in the United States, becoming one of the largest oil spills in the United States in the past decade. With the gradual liberalization of China’s epidemic prevention measures, fuel demand is expected to rebound. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, which affected the domestic market price of paraxylene to maintain stability.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the 16th, the average price of the PTA market was 5300-5400 yuan/ton. In terms of PTA supply, PTA started this week more stably. At present, the industry started at around 66%. Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, PTA market prices rose slightly. However, under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow recovery in the downstream polyester industry, the negative pressure has increased. In the textile terminal market, demand remained weak in the off-season, and new orders at the terminal continued to decline. Since the beginning of November, with the terminal texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and the weaving manufacturers’ holidays, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 50%. On the whole, the downstream market is weak, which affects the domestic market price of paraxylene to remain stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst of the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is in a long short game. The expectation of the global economic recession remains unchanged. The oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. There is still a risk of decline in the short term. The terminal downstream operating rate is lower, and the downstream demand is expected to decline. The contradiction between PTA supply and demand is prominent, and the price is not motivated enough. It is expected that the price of paraxylene market will remain stable in the later period.