According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid in China has been stable recently. As of December 12th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2910 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week (December 5th), with a month on month increase of 2.83% and a year-on-year increase of 4.86%.

（1） Supply side: Significant phased contraction, concentrated capacity disturbance
Enterprise production reduction and maintenance overlap: A manufacturer in Feicheng, Shandong has implemented a second production reduction, maintaining a low daily output; Part of the equipment in a production enterprise in Liaocheng is undergoing continuous maintenance, and the synchronous contraction of production capacity in the two major regions directly compresses market supply.
（2） Inventory and Demand: Weak Balance Pattern Suppresses Price Fluctuations
High inventory buffer supply contraction: Despite continuous supply side reductions, industry inventory remains above the median level, and inventory plays a significant role in filling the supply gap.
Weak downstream demand restricts upward momentum: traditional demand for formic acid shows weakness; the feed industry is in a seasonal adjustment period, and demand growth in the breeding sector is weak; The operating rate of the leather and textile industries remains below 60%; The pharmaceutical and chemical industry only maintains rigid on-demand procurement, resulting in insufficient overall consumption and digestion capacity. The demand for emerging fields such as hydrogen storage and transportation, and flow batteries has not yet formed a scale, making it difficult to support market price increases in the short term. ​
（3） Cost side: Stable raw material prices provide support
Methanol, the raw material for formic acid production, is operating steadily at a high market level. The shortage of port imports and the demand for olefins in mainland China support the prices of raw materials, and there is no significant downward pressure on the cost side. At the same time, the prices of auxiliary raw materials such as sulfuric acid remain stable, and the production costs of enterprises are maintained within a reasonable range, providing basic support for the stability of formic acid prices. ​
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that formic acid has entered a stage equilibrium range, and traders’ willingness to quote is stable. Downstream procurement is mainly based on on-demand replenishment, and prices are stable. It is expected to remain stable in the short term, but specific market changes still need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 5th, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 13625 yuan/ton. On December 1st, the price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 13150 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.61%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of December (12.1-12.5), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a stable and upward trend. The organic silicon DMC market continued to recover, and the market focus shifted towards the high-end. At the beginning of the week, major factories in Shandong province took the lead in raising the shipment price of organic silicon DMC by 200 yuan/ton. During the week, leading factories in East China closely followed the upward trend and adjusted the price of organic silicon DMC to 14000 yuan/ton. As the weekend approached, major factories in Shandong once again raised the price of organic silicon DMC to 13500 yuan/ton. At present, as of December 5th, the domestic market price reference for organic silicon DMC is around 13500-14000 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Fundamental situation: Looking back at November, an important conference was held in the industry, and a consensus on “anti involution” was initially formed. Industry competition gradually returned to value enhancement, and the overall market atmosphere improved. The price of organic silicon DMC market gradually rebounded. In December, the industry’s energy-saving and emission reduction plan and industry conference were completed, and the overall market mentality continued to respond positively, promoting the continuous recovery and upward trend of market prices.
On the supply side: Currently, due to the emission reduction of equipment, the overall inventory of organic silicon DMC factories is low, and some factories have good order scheduling and strong pricing mentality, providing good support to the market on the supply side.
In terms of demand: Currently, although the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is still relatively cautious, there has been an overall improvement compared to the previous period. Some downstream customers are concerned about cost pressure in the later period, so they are moderately stocking up, and the overall stocking pace has increased.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is good. The supply and demand transmission in the market has been boosted. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will continue to operate steadily and positively, and market prices are expected to continue to be slightly boosted before returning to stability. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash increased in November. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1186 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1224 yuan/ton. The price increased by 38 yuan/ton during the month, with a growth rate of 3.20%.
2、 Market analysis
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market for soda ash in November is expected to be strong. On the supply side, the maintenance or reduction of soda ash equipment has led to a decline in overall operating rates, a decrease in enterprise inventory, and a significant increase in soda ash quotations; On the demand side, the glass industry has experienced narrow fluctuations in production, which has increased the enthusiasm for purchasing soda ash. The total inventory of soda ash has decreased, and the market sentiment is clearly bullish. Within the month, soda ash prices have shown a strong upward trend.
As of November 30, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1180-1550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50-150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month; The mainstream price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1110-1220 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 20 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of light soda ash in North China is around 1250-1270 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 80-100 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price range fluctuated this month, and the average glass market price decreased from 13.85 yuan/square meter to 13.68 yuan/square meter, with an overall decline of 1.23%. The glass production rate has slightly declined within the month, with a narrow decrease in enterprise inventory. Downstream performance has been average, with urgent procurement following up. The market transaction atmosphere is sluggish, and glass inventory is limited, resulting in a weak and downward trend in the glass market.
Market forecast: There will be significant maintenance and reduction of soda ash plants, resulting in weakened supply pressure. There are cold repair plans downstream, leading to a decrease in production expectations and insufficient support for soda ash. The basic fundamentals of the market will continue to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is expected that the soda ash market will experience fluctuations and consolidation in December, depending on downstream follow-up situations.

The center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices shifted downwards in November

The price of ethylene glycol has been falling continuously in November, and the price center has shifted downwards. Recently, the price has started to stop falling. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.05% from the average price of 4220.83 yuan/ton on November 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the basis of port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) has weakened significantly, and this week’s contracts have weakened during the day, leading to the start of discounting futures. Today’s intraday basis quotation range for this week’s contracts is+8 to -5. As of the close on November 28th, the contract basis quotation for next week will be+5 to+6, the contract basis quotation for December will be+18 to+20, and the contract basis quotation for January will be+33 to+35.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3720-3880 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of November 26th, the recent negotiations on the landed price of ship cargo have resulted in transactions around $460-462 per ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Plant in November 2025:
In November 2025, the ethylene glycol plant showed a trend of multiple domestic plant restarts, maintenance, and load reduction in parallel. The shutdown of overseas Iranian plants caused supply concerns, and some Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian plants were operating stably,
East China main port ethylene glycol inventory increases by 209000 tons in November 2025
On November 27, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 708000 tons, an increase of 40400 tons compared to the total inventory of 667600 tons on November 17; Compared to the total inventory of 499000 tons of ethylene glycol at the East China main port on October 30th, the inventory has increased by 209000 tons; Compared to September 29th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port was 355100 tons, an increase of 352900 tons.

The market price of butadiene rubber in November fluctuated and fell. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 10680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.22% from 11150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since November, the inventory of butadiene has remained high, coupled with the low volatility of international crude oil, the price of raw material butadiene has weakened and fallen, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; In addition, the overall production of butadiene rubber in November fluctuated slightly around 70%; Downstream tires mainly require rigid support for butadiene rubber. Under the comprehensive influence, the price of butadiene rubber fluctuated and fell in November. As of November 28th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 10600-10800 yuan/ton.
In November, the price of butadiene fluctuated weakly and fell, dragging down the market for butadiene rubber on the cost side. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the price of butadiene was 7016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.65% from 7516 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The production of butadiene rubber in November fluctuated slightly, with an overall rate of around 70%.
Demand side: In November, the downstream semi steel tire production was stable in the early stage and slightly decreased in the later stage, providing strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of November 22, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has started at around 7.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region is around 6.20%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the abundant supply of raw material butadiene is mainly due to weak market conditions, with slight fluctuations in downstream tire production. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will experience weak fluctuations in the later period.