According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market saw a gradual increase in November. From November 1st to 27th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 14300 yuan/ton to 14533 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 1.63% and a year-on-year price decrease of 19.93%.
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In early November, the aggregated MDI market was consolidating and running, and the news side was relatively calm. Downstream entry into the market on demand creates a sluggish trading atmosphere. The shipment situation of traders is average, waiting for guidance from the message end, and operating cautiously.
In mid to late November, mainstream large factories have recently increased maintenance and tight supply expectations, leading to factory price increases. Shanghai factory aggregated MDI and implemented a price of 14600 yuan/ton for distribution channels, while fixed price customers implemented a price of 14800 yuan/ton. Traders’ confidence has increased, and prices have risen accordingly. There has been an increase in on-site inquiries, downstream purchases have been made on demand, and the transaction situation is average. At the end of the month, there was a slight decline in the market.
Supply side: Wanhua Ningbo will begin maintenance on November 15th, with an estimated maintenance period of about 55 days. BASF Chongqing plant and Covestro Shanghai plant both have maintenance plans for December. Huntsman’s 280000 ton/year MDI plant in the Netherlands unexpectedly shut down in late November and is expected to continue until around mid December.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market fluctuated at a low level in November. Overall supply remains loose; Downstream essential procurement is the main focus, with some loss making varieties reducing production to maintain prices, and overall demand support is limited. The aniline market remained strong and rose in November. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 7995 yuan/ton, and on November 27th, the price was 8045 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% during the period.
On the demand side, the demand side is relatively stable, with downstream demand entering the market and purchasing on demand.
In the future forecast, the unexpected shutdown of Huntsman’s 280000 ton plant at the end of the month and the maintenance plan for Saudi Arabia’s 400000 ton inventory in January are expected to further tighten the supply side. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will gain momentum in the short term.
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