1.Price Trend

According to the business community urea price monitoring, this week the domestic urea market quotation shocks weakly downward, the market purchases on demand. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market was 1915 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market fell to 1897 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.91%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic urea market shocks fell sharply, but on Friday there were some price rises, part of the plant overhaul. At present, the mainstream in Shandong has rebounded from the bottom and started to rise slightly. Some manufacturers offer 1860-1920 yuan/ton, while those in Anhui offer 1940-1960 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere in the market has been reduced. Recently, the domestic environment protection inspection atmosphere has eased, coal shortage after heating, many urea enterprises are limited by gas, high price gas and so on, which results in high cost pressure. Some enterprises are forced to limit or stop production, which also results in the decline of start-up and poor performance in demand. The overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the price of raw material urea is unstable. In some enterprises, production reduction or overhaul remains unchanged, and the equipment load is still acceptable.

Market Demand: Agricultural market is mostly in a gap period. Winter storage market is affected by the psychology of “buying up, not buying down”. The wait-and-see mood is strong. There is no obvious start-up of light storage market. It still takes time for the improvement of agricultural demand market. The purchase of industrial compound fertilizer and rubber board industry has come to an end. It is difficult for the market to find a new advantage for the time being, and the market will adjust its trend at a high level in the near future.

Industry chain: Anthracite market supply in the upstream is still tight, coal prices are still rising in recent days, the supply of urea raw materials and natural gas is tight, the price of liquid ammonia market has slightly declined, and urea cost support is strong. Compound fertilizer started at a low level, and raw materials trading was limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the domestic urea market has insufficient stamina, weak demand, light market atmosphere, cautious downstream traders sign orders, many visitors, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and obvious bidding psychology of enterprises. In the long run, the international urea market continues to decline, pessimism in the industry increases, manufacturers have strong willingness to ship, more price reduction orders, and heating season, gas limitation and production reduction, raw material supply is tight. The urea market is expected to rebound from the bottom next week and rise slightly.