This week (9.15-19), domestic liquid ammonia prices rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase in liquid ammonia prices in Shandong region was 1.60%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, local emissions have decreased, and supply pressure has slightly eased. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2200-2350 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, this week the supply has been basically stable, with some devices undergoing maintenance. Production in Shandong, Henan, Northwest and other places has slightly decreased, and the supply has slightly decreased. During weekdays and weekends, some companies have engaged in price adjustments, with large factories in Shandong generally adjusting prices within the range of 100 yuan. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand, and considering the short-term resumption of work expectations of faulty ammonia companies, the supply may continue to increase in the later period.
From the demand side, there is not much improvement in downstream demand, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. However, urea shipments have increased recently, and prices have slightly rebounded in the middle of the week. After the price rise, the market generally cooled down, and prices generally fell back to the beginning of the week near the weekend, mainly due to insufficient sustained demand in the later stage. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly decline in urea was 0.22%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the slight increase in liquid ammonia this week is mainly due to favorable conditions on the supply side, as well as expectations for the resumption of maintenance and repair of equipment in the near future, which may gradually increase supply pressure in the later period. In addition, there are not many favorable conditions on the demand side, and there may be a possibility of a decline in the ammonia market.