Aluminum prices bottomed out in 2018, hovering at year-round lows, with a range of 13,450-15,000 yuan/ton. In the first nine months, the price of aluminium has been running in a “W” trend. In the fourth quarter, the price of aluminium has been falling monotonously.
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The average price of aluminium ingot market continued to be weak in the first ten days of January 2019. On January 15, the average price of aluminium ingot market fell to 13223.33 yuan/ton, which was the lowest level in the past two years. Then the price of aluminium ingot began to rise steadily. According to the data of business associations, the average price of aluminium (99.70) market as of March 21 was 14036.67 yuan/ton, up 5.59% compared with the average price of 13350 yuan/ton on the first working day of February 12. The price rose by 6.15% on January 15.
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It is reported that due to the sharp fall in aluminium prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, high-cost aluminium factories suffer serious losses. Some domestic aluminium factories have gradually reduced production and pressure, and the phenomenon of industry independent capacity removal is obvious. Among them, the provinces with the most output reduction are Henan (533,000 tons), Gansu (500,000 tons) and Qinghai (285,000 tons). The common problem in these areas is the high cost of electricity price, which in turn raises the overall production cost, and is also the area where price drops are the first to be hit.
According to data released Wednesday by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), global raw aluminium production fell to 492,000 tons in February, compared with 5411,000 tons revised in January. China’s output is estimated to fall to 2.78 million tons in February and to 3.07 million tons in January.
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The data show that at the beginning of this year, the capacity removal effect of aluminium ingots is obvious, which provides the motive force for the rebound of low aluminium prices in supply and demand. Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable or continue to improve in the near future.