First, crude oil rebounded in the beginning of the year
In January 2019, crude oil prices rebounded, thanks to Saudi Arabia’s reduction in crude oil exports to the United States and China. In addition, Saudi Arabia reiterated its efforts to balance the crude oil market. If necessary, further production cuts would effectively boost oil prices, OPEC production cuts would gradually play a role in significantly reducing crude oil production, significant reduction in active drilling in the United States, and continued rebound in the stock market would help to rebound risk sentiment. Rising, multiple factors to boost oil prices. Brent charged $61.32 a barrel and WTI $52.31 a barrel on the 16th.
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Global crude oil demand growth will slow down in 2019, mainly due to the continued fermentation of major global economic events in 2018. For example, the Sino-US trade war, the progress of Britain’s “de-Europe” and the sanctions imposed by the United States against Russia and Iraq will all be cumbersome to the economic development of the United States. In addition, the economic development situation of the United States itself deserves attention. The global crude oil supply will continue to increase in 2019, and the United States will truly become the world’s largest oil producer, which will surely make the Middle East countries and Russia feel a sense of urgency. OPEC + countries are committed to reducing production to boost crude oil prices, and the shrinking market share is likely to become a new market for the United States to increase crude oil production. The U.S. energy policy advocating inventory reduction will continue. Increasing crude oil production and increasing exports are the basic strategies for 2019. This part of the resources released outside the U.S. will occupy the market share of OPEC + countries and increase the pressure of crude oil stocks outside the U.S.
2. Collective decline of US stocks/rebound of RMB
Recent fears of a global slowdown continued to weigh on U.S. stocks for the first trading day of the week, with three major indices closing down for two consecutive days. As the economy slows down and oil prices remain low, it is expected that corporate earnings growth will become more difficult later. With the collective decline of U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar and crude oil markets also fell slightly. As investors’demand for risky assets weakened, market instability also intensified.
Last Monday (January 14), the RMB rose 349 basis points to 6.7560 against the US dollar, the highest since July 19, 2018. Influenced by news, the onshore RMB early trading rose more than 200 points, approaching 6.74, and then narrowed down. The offshore renminbi has risen 1.1% against the dollar since last week, after surging more than 1,000 points a week. China’s measures to promote economic growth will help the renminbi appreciate. Especially under the background of trade slowdown, the average value of RMB exchange rate returns, but due to the short-term rise of RMB, some passengers hesitate slightly, the market’s cautious mood revives, and the subsequent rise is expected to slow down.
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Third, China’s domestic economic growth has slowed down
On January 12, Ning Jitao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the 23rd China Capital Market Forum that the expected GDP growth of about 6.5% in 2018 could be achieved. At the same time, the expected goal of basically synchronizing the growth of residents’income and economic growth in 2018 can be achieved. The growth of per capita residents’ income has outperformed the growth of per capita GDP and achieved the basic synchronization. However, compared with the GDP in 2017, the growth rate slowed down year-on-year, indicating that the follow-up economic pressure still exists.
Generally speaking, crude oil and Renminbi have both stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks have fallen, and GDP has been growing steadily throughout the year. Many economic indicators indicate that the beginning of 2019 will be stable. Polyethylene market has been in a stable stage since New Year’s Day. Petrochemical has actively cleared stocks before the festival and is relatively ideal. As of the 18th day, two barrels of oil stocks have remained at a low level of about 500,000 tons. In addition, stocks in the lower reaches of the year before the festival have not At the end, the spot market is limited, traders and downstream inventories are low, so the overall polyethylene market is expected to continue to stabilize. Macroeconomics continues to maintain a “L” type of steady development, so the market need not be too pessimistic. The overall trend of 2019 is expected to be moderate and progressive, but there are still many difficulties and challenges in the economic operation. With the combination of multiple factors, the market still needs to respond at random.
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