According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. From April 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2580 yuan/ton to 2440 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.43% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 7.36%, and a year-on-year price drop of 7.98%.

In the first half of the month, under the influence of crude oil and policies, the domestic methanol market fell sharply. After falling to a low level, many downstream and trading companies restocked at the low price. In addition, some major production areas experienced equipment failures and reduced production, supporting the low rebound of the domestic methanol market. The methanol market is fluctuating and running.
In mid month, the supply of methanol in the coastal market increased, but market confidence was insufficient, and the overall port market remained weak. Due to the shutdown of some facilities and tight supply in some regions of the mainland methanol market, coupled with low inventory levels of enterprises, traders have a positive attitude towards purchasing goods. Production enterprises have raised prices and shipped goods, resulting in an overall strong operation of the mainland methanol market.
At the end of the month, there was a recent demand for pre holiday stocking of methanol downstream in mainland China, which provided some support for the market atmosphere. Enterprises shipped smoothly, but they still had a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and market price changes were limited.
As of the close on April 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2279 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2283 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2250 yuan/ton. It closed at 2251 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 35 yuan, 0.09 yuan, or 1.53% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 494490 lots, the position is 635491 lots, and the daily increase is -19453 lots.
On the cost side, although the supply from production areas has slightly tightened at the end of the month, traditional coal consumption is in the off-season, and there is insufficient demand for civilian electricity. Power plant units have entered the maintenance season, and the output of clean energy such as hydropower has squeezed out the share of thermal power. Downstream demand for coal has significantly decreased, and market coal trading activity has significantly declined. The supply and demand of thermal coal market are still relatively loose, and the overall price of coal is weakly stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chlorides: The restart of the early load reduction device for chlorides has increased the demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; There is currently no maintenance or restart device for formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on April 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 87.00-88.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 264.50-265.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
Market forecast: As the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a partial release of replenishment demand for traditional downstream demand, and the planned maintenance of MTO facilities in North China will lead to a decline in industry consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.