According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 6th to 9th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2428 yuan/ton to 2402 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.08% during the period, a month on month drop of 2.73%, and a year-on-year drop of 10.02%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. The domestic methanol production and supply are at a high level, and there is an expected increase in import supply. The lack of market confidence has suppressed the market, leading to a decline in the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on May 8th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2216 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2247 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2211 yuan/ton. It closed at 2227 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 7 yuan or 0.32% compared to the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume is 532893 lots, the position is 767836 lots, and the daily increase is -3589 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most of the coal mines in the main production area maintained normal production and sales, and the coal mines that completed the task of shutdown and maintenance at the end of the month also basically resumed normal production. The overall coal supply level is relatively sufficient. During the May Day holiday, the coal prices in the main production areas continued to be weak, and most coal mines had average transportation conditions. The pithead lowered the coal prices according to their own sales situation, with a range of 5-10 yuan/ton. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chloride: chloride increases demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: There is currently no shutdown plan for the unit, and the demand for dimethyl ether is limited; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side, some equipment maintenance; Some other devices have been restored. The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of May 8th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 86.00-87.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 230.50-231.50 euros/ton, down 9 euros/ton.
Future forecast: Traditional downstream demand is relatively weak, and the demand side will continue to suppress price trends. At the same time, under the macro influence, there is a lack of positive factors in the market. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is mainly weak.