I. Trend analysis
According to the monitoring data of business associations, this week’s domestic cobalt market shocks fell, and overall cobalt prices were unable to rebound. As of June 23, the cobalt price was 238166.67 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from 240500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Compared with the previous period, the price of cobalt fell slightly in June, the decline slowed down, and the cobalt market remained basically stable.
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II. Declining International Cobalt Price
International market MB quotation fell this week, the global market of cobalt was cold, the international price of cobalt rose powerlessly, and the decline of international cobalt price dragged down the domestic market of cobalt.
The cobalt price in LME market remained stable this week. The international cobalt market had no upward momentum. The global cobalt market was short. The domestic market was dragged down by the international market.
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III. Cobalt Index
On June 24, the Cobalt Commodity Index was 85.19, down 0.48 points from yesterday, down 64.34% from the cyclical peak of 238.91 points (2018-04-15), and up 21.98% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date). From the cobalt price index, we can see that the cobalt price has fallen by more than 60% compared with the historical high, and the cobalt price is infinitely close to the low point of cobalt price in the cycle. At present, the global supply of cobalt is abundant, which leads to a slow rebound of cobalt price. However, with the cobalt price approaching the cyclical low of cobalt price, the falling space of cobalt price is limited, and the future cobalt price may increase.
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Fourth, the outlook for the future market:
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, believes that the decline in international cobalt prices has dragged down the rebound of domestic cobalt prices, and that the recent rise in domestic cobalt prices is not motivated enough. However, as can be seen from the Cobalt Commodity Index, there is limited space for cobalt to fall, and future market gains may increase. Overall, the cobalt market is still in a state of oversupply at the present stage. The profit margin of cobalt market is greater than the profit margin. It is difficult for cobalt price to rise in the near future. With the gradual warming of cobalt Market demand, the driving force of cobalt price rise is gradually rising. It is expected that cobalt price shocks will remain stable in the short term.