Price trend of spot precious metals
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According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on October 30 was 403.78 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.80% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (10.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 16.02%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 19.79% compared with the peak price of (8.7) silver in the year/ G, down 11.29%.
On October 30, the average price of silver market was 4947.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.47% compared with the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4281.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 13.05%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 68.12%; compared with the peak price of 8.11, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 26.25%.
Year on year decline in physical demand
According to the data of the world gold association, global gold demand in the third quarter was 892.3 tons, down 19% year-on-year. According to historical statistics, this is the lowest total quarterly demand since the third quarter of 2009. Among them, the global demand for gold jewelry in the third quarter was 333.0 tons, 29% lower than that in the same period in 2019;
From the first quarter to the third quarter of 2020, the total global demand for gold is 2972.1 tons, down 10% year-on-year.
Domestic, the actual consumption of gold is 548.09 tons. Among them, the consumption of gold jewelry was 343.08 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.43%; gold bars and gold coins were 142.52 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.07%; industrial and other uses consumption was 62.49 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.11%.
Investment demand pushes noble metal prices to slow down in the third quarter
In the first three quarters of 2020, the cumulative inflow of global gold ETFs is 1003.3 tons. At present, the global gold ETF total position reached 3880.0 tons, a record.
Among them, the increase in global gold ETFs in the third quarter of 2020 was 272.5 tons, slower than that in the first half of 2020.
Physical investment surged in the third quarter
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In the third quarter of 2020, the global investment demand for gold bars and gold coins was 222.1 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 49%. There was strong growth in retail investment markets, such as Western markets, China and Turkey, but continued strong net sales in Thailand.
Global central bank gold demand net sales
In the third quarter of 2020, global central bank gold demand showed a net sale of 12.1 tons, the first quarter since 2010.
Future forecast
After the continuous rise of precious metals driven by investment demand, the price of precious metals reached the current year’s peak in the third quarter, and then the market heat retreated slightly with profit taking.
Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the monetary easing policies of the major central banks continue, and the price supporting factors are still there. In addition, the geopolitical risks such as the Sino US situation and the Taiwan Strait situation are relatively strong, and the space for further price reduction of precious metals is narrowed, and the probability of stabilizing the horizontal market is increased.
Key indicators for future market
1. Global GDP and other data will be released
2. The three central banks of Japan, euro zone and Canada will announce the interest rate resolution
3. US bipartisan stimulus plan negotiations and US election progress
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