1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was weak. The average price of Shandong market was 482.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 472.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a price drop of 2.07% and 18.53% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on January 28 was 67.99, down 1.43 points from yesterday, down 67.13% from 206.87 points (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 4.42% from 65.11 points, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The purchase price of Shandong’s main alumina decreased by 10-16 yuan / ton, and 32 yuan / ton to 390 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong Province has been reduced. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-500 yuan / ton. The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is stable for the time being. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand is general. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range finishing operation of caustic soda will be dominant.

Demand: on the downstream side, the downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. At present, the average price of domestic alumina is basically maintained within 2300-2400 yuan, which is at a historical low. The production profit of enterprises is low, and the willingness to resume production is weak. In addition, the manufacturers mainly purchase caustic soda on demand near the Spring Festival holiday. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. The purchasing of downstream enterprises is general, and the market price has little power to rise.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 03 th week (1.18-1.22) of 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (2.74%) and PVC (1.97%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 3.05%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.33%.

Analysts from the business society believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. As a national wind vane, the price reduction in Shandong will drive the national trend downward. It is expected that caustic soda will be sorted out later or in a narrow range, depending on the downstream market demand.