1、 Price trend

According to the price chart of business agency, as of June 30, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile remained 14820.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day, falling 0.74% compared with the previous Wednesday, and 3.64% higher than that on May 30

2、 Market analysis

4. In May, acrylonitrile was in a downward trend of oscillation, with a downward range of about 13%; In June, the attitude of rapid rise in the first half of June was 3.87%, while the next half of the month was down slightly, down 1.47%. With the centennial celebration of the party building, many environmental protection and production restrictions have been made in recent years. Apart from Jilin Petrochemical overhaul, most manufacturers’ production units are in medium and high load operation this week, among which Daqing Petrochemical, Daqing Refining and chemical industry, Shandong kerur, Shanghai Secco and Lanzhou Petrochemical have reached 100% and Anqing Petrochemical has reached 103%. There is no shortage of difficult goods to take, the pressure of the manufacturer’s inventory is too small, and the basic supply and demand is still stable; But the market users demand generally, and the trading atmosphere is light; The upstream cost support is general, and the downstream driving effect is not strong, so the upward range of acrylonitrile is not large and the sustainability is not strong, and the price is temporarily stable after being shaken.

upper reaches:

According to the price map of the business agency, the propylene market in Shandong Province has been in a volatile downward trend, and the market transaction rose to between 7600 yuan and 7900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7900 yuan / ton. The price of mainstream manufacturers remained unchanged, and the low-end prices increased. The propene market is expected to stabilize or rise in the near future.

Downstream:

NBR overall showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the market continued to stabilize after falling to 20900 yuan / T. Analysts from business society believe that the supply side is relatively low, and the price has fallen sharply in the early stage, and the NBR market is expected to be stable in the later period.

According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the spot price of ABS in early June was weak and the spot price was generally down. The trend of raw materials is different, ABS cost end support is general. At present, it is in the off-season of ABS industry, the demand of end-users shrinks, and the resistance of enterprises and businesses to ship is increasing. ABS analysts of business agency think that the recent ABS spot market may continue to be short.

According to the data of business society, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 28 was 88.35, which was flat with yesterday, down 17.53% from 107.13 points (may 08, 2019), which was the highest point in the cycle, and 6.59% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to now) business analyst thinks that since the second quarter, the factory has resumed normal construction, sufficient supply, no obvious change in demand and no action in the market. The effect of the price change of LPG is not reflected correctly. Polyacrylamide market is weak, and the market will not change significantly in the short term; But if crude oil continues to rise obviously, the polyacrylamide market, as an indirect downstream, may be reflected in the day.

3、 Future forecast

The analysis of acrylonitrile in business agency thinks: the market of acrylonitrile is stable after the market shock finishing, and the upstream propylene market is in a volatile manner; ABS is weak in downstream; NBR is stable; Polyacrylamide market is flat; The trading atmosphere of acrylonitrile market is general, and the demand of downstream users is general, and it may be slightly shaken in the near future, and it is mainly stable.