1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

In July, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, acetic acid fell by 5.15% this week (7.4-8). Mainly affected by the increase in supply and the slowdown in demand, the Celanese unit resumed production, with Sinopec Great Wall resuming operation, the factory accumulated significantly, and the market supply surged. While the supply pressure increases, the overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the resistance of downstream factories to the current high price of acetic acid is increasing, affecting the willingness to purchase. So the callback period has not yet ended. At the weekend, the price of acetic acid is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate range fluctuated, the inertia fell at the beginning of the week, gradually stopped falling from the middle of the week to the weekend, and some rebounded. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 1.52%. At present, ethyl acetate is still affected by the negative impact of raw acetic acid. However, the transaction of Shandong big factory is in good condition, and the psychology of low price bottom hunting in the downstream leads to a slight premium. So the price of ethyl acetate rebounded slightly over the weekend, but from the terminal point of view, the order in July was still insufficient and the demand was relatively weak, which was still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (7.4-8), the domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak and volatile, and the price fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 2.75%. On the one hand, the cost is bad, and the dual raw materials are lower. Compared with acetic acid, the decline of downstream butyl ester was relatively small, and the performance was relatively resistant to decline. The main reason was that the market supply remained within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the device was low, and remained below 40% in the first week of July. There is not much pressure on supply. Butyl acetate remained weak due to the relatively weak downstream demand. In addition, the price of raw material n-butanol was still low. According to monitoring, n-butanol fell by 19.73% in June. The rise and fall in the first week of July was 0. Superimposed on the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 9300-9600 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that in early July, the acetic acid industrial chain was relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid was still obvious, which had a great impact on the whole industrial chain. Downstream ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products all fell to varying degrees, but it was significantly weaker than acetic acid, indicating that downstream profits were still in a comfortable range.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the short term, the performance of the acetic acid industry chain is low, and the upstream costs are bad, which also eases the cost pressure on the downstream. Recently, acetic acid is still affected by the resumption of the plant, and loose supply will put pressure on the price. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester still have negative cost side. Considering the light downstream demand, the order performance in July was insufficient. It is expected that ethyl ester and butyl ester may still operate at a low level.