The price of ethylene glycol in May showed a weak inverted “V” shape
According to data from Business News Agency, as of May 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4103.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:
The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 3900-4310 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4000 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.
On May 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 478 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 483 US dollars per ton.
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In May, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, with a trend of “V” in price, and the price continued to move downward at the end of the month.
Ethylene glycol prices may continue to be weak in June
The price of ethylene glycol in June may continue to be weak, for the following reasons:
1. Ethylene glycol port inventory
At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 29th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 933100 tons. After late April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port began to be depleted, and it has been operating in the range of less than 1 million tons since May. The maintenance of overseas devices in June is relatively low, and the import volume may rebound, which may hinder the process of port inventory destocking.
2. Downstream demand has not changed much
Downstream, the polyester production rate has recently improved, with a polyester production capacity utilization rate of 88.25%, an increase of 2.41% month on month, and a production of 1.2524 million tons, an increase of 2.41% month on month. Next week’s weekly production is expected to be above 1.26 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 89%. The space for further increasing demand will be narrowed in the future.
3. Low spot supply of ethylene glycol rebounds
In the early stage, the coal production plants were restarted one after another due to short shutdowns, and new plants were put into operation. The low supply level slightly rebounded, and the speed of ethylene glycol storage slowed down. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the cash flow of domestic coal production processes has been restored. In June, the coal production plant is expected to restart, and the operating rate of coal production may show a rebound trend. Therefore, the supply of coal to ethylene glycol may increase. However, there is still a high demand for short-term maintenance of oil production equipment, and the supply side increment is expected to be limited. The 1 million ton EG+EO device of Sanjiang Chemical has been successfully started up within a week, and the load is gradually increasing; The 260000 ton plant of Inner Mongolia Jianyuan was shut down in early May and is expected to restart in early June.
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4. Weak cost support for ethylene glycol
In the macro environment, the prices of terminal raw materials such as coal and crude oil are in a downward or fluctuating trend, making it difficult to focus and amplify the cost impact factors of ethylene glycol in the short term.
Future market forecast
At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within the historical relatively low range, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains in the short term.
Ethylene glycol has been at a negative profit level for a long time, and is currently mainly supported by the weakening of supply caused by mid to long-term production changes and the expected improvement in downstream demand; We still need to wait and see the specific expected landing performance.
At present, oil prices remain volatile, but coal prices continue to operate in a weak manner, and the cost support for ethylene glycol has weakened. It is expected that in the short term, ethylene glycol will weaken in the future market and the probability of fluctuations will increase. The average price range for June is around 3900-4150 yuan/ton.
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