According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has recently risen, while the domestic light rare earth market has risen. On July 23, the rare earth index was 452 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 66.79% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy in China have all increased. As of the 24th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 560000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to the 15th; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 465000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.37% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium metal was 585000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of metal praseodymium was 622500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 472500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28% compared to the price on the 15th.

The recent trend of the light rare earth market has been rising, and the prices of young rare earths in the first half have been declining for a long time. Affected by the increase in inquiries, the prices quoted by the holders are relatively firm, and the actual transaction prices have also increased. Recently, the prices of praseodymium neodymium rare earths have been raised in response to the increase in raw material prices. In mid to late July, some long-term orders were purchased, providing strong support for the light rare earth market, and the price trend of the light rare earth market increased. However, downstream magnetic material companies are very cautious in purchasing due to frequent price fluctuations of praseodymium and neodymium in recent times, and the transaction situation is still subject to certain restrictions. The overall price of rare earth products is mainly rising.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: The supply of rare earth raw materials has been slightly tight in the near future, with orders and reserves of neodymium iron boron enterprises increasing slightly. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise slightly in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.