On Thursday night trading, butadiene rubber 2401 opened at 12250 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in intraday trading. It closed at 13295 yuan/ton on the limit up board, with an increase of 9.47%. The closing price has increased by 23.67% compared to the opening price of 10750 yuan/ton on the first day of listing on July 28th.

 

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Since the listing of butadiene rubber futures one month ago, the spot market of butadiene rubber has also shown a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11970 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.53% from 10830 yuan/ton on July 28. In August, the factory price of two barrels of oil butadiene rubber was gradually increased by 900 yuan/ton. As of August 31, the factory price of Daqing butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of domestic butadiene rubber was between 11700 and 12200 yuan/ton.

 

Industry Start Slightly Lowers Supply Side Pressure Relieves

 

Supply side: The overall construction of butadiene rubber in August slightly decreased.

 

Significant increase in raw material prices and cost support for the market of butadiene rubber

 

Since the end of July, the butadiene market has been rising, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 7626 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.90% from 7201 yuan/ton on July 28. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, bringing a certain boost to the cost side. At the same time, some downstream product prices rose, and there was some support for the market demand side. Merchants’ expectations for demand were stronger, combined with the strong offer for distant cargo in the outer market, resulting in a high market atmosphere; At the end of the month, the prices of butadiene in various sales companies of Sinopec, the main production enterprise, were increased to 7600 yuan/ton. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.

 

The increasing speed of natural rubber destocking provides support for rubber prices

 

Since the end of July, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating, but the speed of inventory removal at the end of the month has accelerated, providing some support for natural rubber and butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31st, the price was at 12090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 11960 yuan/ton on July 28th, and the low point during the cycle was at 11764 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the speed of natural rubber inventory destocking has increased rapidly. As of August 25, 2023, it is understood that the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 824400 tons, a decrease of 100000 tons from 926000 tons on July 23 and a decrease of 70000 tons from 895100 tons on August 20.

 

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Tire production slightly increased compared to July, requiring support for rubber storage capacity

 

Demand side: The tire operating rate in August slightly increased compared to July, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Recently, rubber prices have continued to rise, especially with a significant increase in rubber prices on August 31st. This is mainly due to the support of industry chain fundamentals such as rapid inventory decline and high cost levels; On the other hand, it is stimulated by rumors of large capital hoarding and the continuous rise of Japanese glue. Driven by multiple factors, rubber prices have surged significantly.

 

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of butadiene rubber raw materials is running high, and there is not much supply pressure. Coupled with the support of natural rubber destocking, it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will remain strong in the short term. If the market rubber inventory continues to rapidly decline, the spot price of butadiene rubber will continue to rise.

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