According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market continued to decline in August 2024. From August 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 7660 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 9.27% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the mixed xylene market continued to decline, and the crude oil market fluctuated widely during the cycle, with insufficient guidance for the market. Sinopec’s listing prices and refinery prices in various regions generally decreased, especially in the Shandong region where refinery prices fell widely. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak and operating. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week, but there is insufficient demand for oil products. The focus of negotiations is relatively low, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Late of the month: The mixed xylene market is weak and volatile, with prices in Shandong and South China initially rising and then falling. As prices continue to remain low, there is some demand for bargain hunting downstream, resulting in a significant improvement in market trading in these two regions and refinery prices rising. However, due to the overall weak trend of the downstream gasoline blending industry and the lack of demand support, the market continues to have insufficient upward momentum, maintaining a stable and weak trend.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in production, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel; The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.58 per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been significantly reduced this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of August 30th, East China Company quoted 7000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6850-6950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6950-7050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The prices of raw materials have been continuously falling, and the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined several times in August, resulting in a sustained downturn in the phthalic anhydride market. At the end of August, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on August 30th, Sinopec executed a price of 8050 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to July 2024. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $927-929/ton as of August 29th, a cumulative decrease of $65/ton from $993/ton at the end of July.

External market: The Asian xylene external market has experienced a wide downward trend during this period, with FOB South Korea closing price of 812-814 US dollars/ton as of August 29th and September; The closing price of CFR China in September is $836 per ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and cost support will be limited. Partial units in Shandong have resumed supply, and the supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose. From the perspective of demand, the downstream market has been operating weakly recently, and the market is maintaining a supply of essential goods. It is expected that in the short term, under the influence of negative market factors, the xylene market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly.