1、 Review of the 2024 Epichlorohydrin Market:

 

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of epichlorohydrin at the beginning of the year was 8125 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 7987 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.7% for the whole year. According to the price trend chart, the highest point of the year’s price occurred in mid December, with a market average price of 9225 yuan/ton. The lowest point of the year’s price occurred in mid July, with a market average price of 7875 yuan/ton, and the maximum fluctuation range for the year was 1350 yuan/ton.

 

From the trend chart, we can see that the epoxy chloropropane market in 2024 shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the first half of the year, the epoxy chloropropane market fluctuated downward, and in the second half of the year, the price rapidly increased before experiencing a slight decline. The supply-demand game is an important cause of price fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there was an overall oversupply in the market, and traders were cautious and cautious, with prices remaining low; In the second half of the year, high raw material prices provided support, and most enterprises were operating at full capacity. In addition, some factories were temporarily shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods in the market. At the same time, downstream demand has improved, procurement is active, and prices continue to rise, maintaining an upward trend.

 

From the perspective of raw materials:

 

Glycerol: High market prices and cost pressures on glycerol in 2024

 

The profit of the propylene process unit in 2024 is around 70.54 yuan/ton, and the profit of the glycerol process unit is about 218.07 yuan/ton. Around June, glycerol prices experienced a decline, while the cost profit of epichlorohydrin remained relatively considerable; After entering the second half of the year, glycerol prices rapidly rose, leading to increased costs and slightly insufficient profits for suppliers.

 

Acrylic: China’s propylene market will fluctuate and decline in 2024

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 6868.25 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6835.75 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.47% in the market during the year. Based on the comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the price of propylene will show a fluctuating trend in 2025. The specific trend still requires close attention to market dynamics and policy support.

 

2、 2025 Epichlorohydrin Supply End Forecast:

 

The production capacity of epichlorohydrin will grow rapidly in 2024, with a total capacity of approximately 2.215 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.91%. Driven by the expansion of production capacity, the output has also increased. The domestic production of epichlorohydrin in 2024 is about 1.275 million tons, an increase of 7.74% compared to last year.

 

From the graph, it can be seen that the production capacity of epichlorohydrin will maintain a growth trend in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The newly added production capacity in 2023 will be around 300000 tons, and in 2024 it will be around 140000 tons. The production in 2024 will also increase slightly compared to 2023, and it is expected that the supply side of epichlorohydrin will continue to show incremental expectations in 2025.

 

In 2025, the epichlorohydrin industry will see the commissioning of multiple new production capacity projects and steady expansion of existing capacity. Against the backdrop of high downstream demand potential, technological innovation, and increasing environmental requirements, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.

 

3、 Forecast of demand for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

 

Epoxy resin is the largest downstream of epichlorohydrin, accounting for about 90%. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of epoxy resin will first decrease and then increase in 2024. The highest value of the year occurred in December at about 14066.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest value of the year occurred in April at about 12600.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 11.64%. The production capacity and output of epoxy resin will steadily increase in 2024, providing strong support for the epoxy chloropropane industry and further driving its market demand growth. It is expected that the production capacity of epoxy resin will continue to grow in 2025, and more attention should be paid to the impact of the industry’s operating conditions on the epoxy chloropropane market.

 

Import and export

 

In terms of imports, according to customs data, the total import volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 646.97 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%. From the graph, it can be seen that the import volume of epichlorohydrin in China has shown a decreasing trend year by year. Mainly due to the overcapacity of epichlorohydrin production in China in recent years, the import arbitrage window has narrowed, the dependence on imports has decreased, and coupled with weak domestic demand, some factories are producing at low loads, limiting the growth rate of production and resulting in a decrease in import volume. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous expansion of production capacity and output, China’s epichlorohydrin industry will gradually achieve self-sufficiency and not rely on imports.

 

In terms of exports, according to customs data, the total export volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 84352719 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.79%. In 2024, it has surpassed the high level of 72000 tons in 2022 and set a new historical high. With the continuous expansion of production capacity and increasingly fierce industry competition, domestic enterprises are actively seeking overseas markets. It is expected that the export volume of epichlorohydrin in China will continue to increase by 2025.

 

4、 Market forecast for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

 

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of epichlorohydrin will increase in 2025, and the demand side may still dominate the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will fluctuate narrowly in 2025, and more attention should still be paid to cost pressures.

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