According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic methanol market is weak and declining. From May 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2440 yuan/ton to 2245 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.99% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 10.96%, and a year-on-year price drop of 19.82%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly experienced a decline. The domestic methanol production and supply are at a high level, and there is an expected increase in import supply. The lack of market confidence has suppressed the market, leading to a decline in the domestic methanol market.
In mid month, the domestic methanol market mainly rose. Boosted by macro positive factors, coupled with the shutdown of some facilities in the main methanol market in the Middle East, market sentiment has improved. The domestic methanol market as a whole is dominated, but downstream consumers are resistant to high prices after the rise.
At the end of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly experienced a decline. From a fundamental perspective, due to the expectation of increasing supply and inventory, the market is strongly suppressed and lacks confidence. Therefore, although downstream external procurement and downstream equipment start-up have provided some support to the market, the current support is weak, and the domestic methanol market is under pressure to decline.
As of the close on May 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2509, opened at 2220 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2221 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2195 yuan/ton. It closed at 2208 yuan/ton in the end, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.32%. The trading volume is 701459 lots, the position is 824339 lots, and the daily increase is -25077 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain normal production pace, and the market coal supply is still at a high level. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: acetic acid demand may decrease; Downstream chloride, reduced demand for chloride; MTBE、 The formaldehyde and dimethyl ether industries currently have no clear plans for starting, stopping, or reducing their load, and there is little fluctuation in demand for methanol. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has decreased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by unfavorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of May 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 326.50-327.50 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 78.00-79.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 253.50-254.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
Future forecast: Factory production continues to fluctuate at a high level, and there is a short-term demand for shipments; Traditional downstream production has limited improvement, with a focus on essential procurement. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate weakly.