According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 10th to 14th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2058 yuan/ton to around 2034 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.17% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 10.16%, and a year-on-year drop of 17.82%. Under high import supply, port methanol inventory still accumulates, which continues to suppress the market, and the port methanol market mainly maintains a low-level oscillation operation.

As of the close on November 14th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2103 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2107 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2054 yuan/ton. It closed at 2055 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 52 yuan or 2.47% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 1169485, the position is 1516796, and the daily increase is 133965.
On the cost side, domestic coal production continues to shrink, heating demand is released ahead of schedule, and coal prices are expected to remain strong, with strong cost support. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, supported by the demand for olefin external procurement, the weak terminal demand has not fundamentally improved, and the incremental demand on the demand side is limited. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, it is currently estimated that the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase. Therefore, the overall market supply may increase. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on November 13th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $321.5-322.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5-90.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 265.5-266.5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, there will be significant market supply pressure, and port inventories will continue to accumulate. Although demand has slightly rebounded, the overall pattern of oversupply will strengthen, and the market will operate weakly. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will continue to be weak.