I. Price Brief Introduction

Trend chart of liquid ammonia

Data from business associations show that the market of liquid ammonia did not continue its upward trend last month, but stepped out of the first rise and then fall market, especially in the latter half of the year. The price of liquid ammonia rose and fell by 0.48% in the whole month in the northern region. As of April 29, the price of liquid ammonia was in the range of 3250-3400 yuan/ton at the end of the month.

The repeated market of liquid ammonia is mainly affected by the following factors: on the one hand, the market supply is slightly loose, the start-up rate in the north is relatively high, and the inventory pressure of the manufacturers is gradually appearing; on the other hand, the downstream urea plant stops, resulting in demand not keeping pace; on the other hand, due to the impact of environmental protection, the downstream plant start-up rate has declined, and the purchasing power of liquid ammonia has slowed down.

II. Market Analysis

From the perspective of supply and demand:

Products: By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia in main producing areas such as Shandong is about 3200-3400 yuan/ton, Hebei is about 3300 yuan/ton, and Anhui is about 3400 yuan/ton. In the early ten days, the domestic liquid ammonia market is still in the upstream stage, mainly due to the downstream purchasing effort is still acceptable, the market is still at the end of the spring farming season, manufacturers are also actively shipping, at this time, the inventory pressure of manufacturers has gradually accumulated. By the end of the decade, the inventory pressure of the manufacturer has gradually emerged. Moreover, the downstream purchasing efforts have slowed down, resulting in repeated prices, and the liquid ammonia market continues to fall.

Industry chain: downstream demand is mainly rational. At present, the spring tillage season is coming to an end. Downstream fertilizer manufacturers mainly take goods on demand, and no longer vigorously stock up. Therefore, to a certain extent, the continuation of the soaring liquid ammonia market is limited. Downstream nitric acid, urea and other start-up rates have declined, especially urea, there are problems in large plants, affecting the use of liquid ammonia, the price of downstream products has fallen, and the market of liquid ammonia has lost support, according to the business community monitoring, since early April urea fell by 1.22%, upstream and downstream linkage, the entire industrial chain of liquid ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer has experienced a wave of market reversal.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts believe that the liquid ammonia market is currently in imbalance between supply and demand, with relatively excessive supply. At the end of the month, the market is gradually cooling down. It is expected that with the end of the peak season, downstream purchasing efforts will continue to slow down. The liquid ammonia market can not rule out the possibility of further downward trend.