Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market rose narrowly this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 7976 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8036 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 0.75% in the week and fell by 28.73% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market maintained finishing after going up. The base price of Liaotong Chemical Bidding rose 200 yuan/ton to 8010 yuan/ton from last week, and the export volume of Northeast manufacturers continued to shrink. During the week, Fushun Petrochemical continued to suspend export, Liaotong Chemical only released a small amount of goods on Monday, and the spot market supply continued to be tight. Although Bluestar and Liaoyang Petrochemical had a small amount of export, the supply price was high, and the market was hard to find low-priced goods. In addition, the recent external market was higher, the middlemen were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer was firm and upward. Liaotong chemical suspension of export continues to support the market, the downstream just need a small amount of follow-up, although there is no obvious low-price supply to supplement the market, but short-term trading is difficult to release volume, after the market rose in the middle and late weeks to sort out.

Industry chain: styrene-butadiene rubber: domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market shows a shock market. On-site merchants offer price changes little, downstream terminal to maintain just needed purchasing volume, small single transactions mainly. Cis-butadiene rubber: domestic cis-butadiene rubber market shocks. The overall change of business offer is not big, some high offer is difficult to deal with, the purchasing intention of buyers on the spot is not high, and the volume of spot transactions is small. SBS: The domestic SBS market oil glue partial gravity center weakens, dry rubber duct to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the spot stock in East China is slowly digested, the export manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure for the time being, and Sinopec’s supply price is expected to rise. On the negative side, the trend of synthetic rubber market is weak, Northeast manufacturers have export expectations in the next cycle, downstream just need to support high prices is limited, poor terminal demand leads to pressure on the latex industry, cost pressure is obvious. Short-term low inventory of domestic and foreign manufacturers has brought obvious support to the price of suppliers, but the high price of the market is not good. In the next cycle, manufacturers in Northeast China and Central China all have export expectations, the spot market has increased slightly, and the latex industry downstream just needs to be difficult to effectively support the high market, the market is under pressure. Although the supply price of Sinopec in East China is expected to rise and the stock of tank farms is declining, there are still some shipments arriving in the second half of the month. The change of supply side has a certain impact on the mentality of the merchants. The supply and demand fundamentals have not been further boosted. Business analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market will remain in order in the short term. They suggest paying attention to supply changes and downstream transaction guidelines.