Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market fell as a whole this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2178 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it was 2160 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.83%, 23.18% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Although the domestic methanol market declined further this week, with the increase of middlemen’s air-filling operations, futures up to more than 2300 and the good news of Baofeng, Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II MTO meeting expectations, etc. news boosted; sales in the main producing areas were smooth, and port trends were relatively strong. Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II newly built 600,000 tons methanol to olefin unit was commissioned at the end of June. At present, the unit is running smoothly. As of Wednesday (7.3), the total stock of ports in eastern and southern China was 799,400 tons, up 346,000 tons annually.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market shocks down. This week, the methanol market in many places fell to a low level, the cost support was weak, and the downstream market demand was light. Under the influence of bad news, the offer of formaldehyde enterprises in many places was lowered, and the actual single transaction was normal. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the domestic acetic acid plant is running steadily, and the spot market is increasing continuously. As a result, some enterprises in central China appear preferential negotiation, which aggravates the hollow market. But at present, the four major East China suppliers are still tight, which gives support to market stability. In the mid-week period, Shanghai Huayi 1.2 million tons acetic acid plant reduced its load to 4-50% operation, and is expected to resume within one week. Moreover, Jiangsu Soap acetic acid plant continued to operate 80% of the total, which intensified the supply shortage in East China and gave strong support to export quotations. Dimethyl ether: This week, dimethyl ether prices fell weakly and the trading atmosphere was general. After last week’s price bottoming, the northern market ushered in a periodic replenishment period. Henan market rebounded slightly over the weekend. By Tuesday (July 2), end-user inventory saturation was gradually leaving the market. At the same time, the leading enterprises in Western Henan had increased their load, and the enterprises were unable to push up. The trading atmosphere was once again deadlocked, and the focus of negotiations was on one after another. Step down.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, there are still some scheduled overhauls of methanol plants in July, including Shenmu, Yankuang Yulin, Xianyang Chemistry and other enterprises in Shaanxi; Jiutai MTO plant in Inner Mongolia is currently in full capacity production and methanol is being purchased one after another; Chengzhi MTO phase II in Nanjing is in trial production at the end of June; Shandong Luxi MTO is expected to be commissioned in July; Baofeng, Ningxia Outbound factories shipped smoothly this week, and most factories had lower inventories. On the negative side, Shenhua Yulin MTO plant is expected to be overhauled in July for 20 days; the domestic methanol plant is expected to remain at a high level, and it is expected to remain above 70% next week, with abundant local supply; due to safety, environmental protection inspection and other factors, local market terminal enterprises stop, affecting methanol consumption. After this week’s deep decline, the profitability of some downstream products has improved, such as propylene, formaldehyde and so on, and the market prices in Inner Mongolia and other places have fallen to the cost line level, so the speculative intention of some operators has increased; methanol analysts of business associations expect that the domestic methanol market will temporarily stop falling next week; however, the basic supply of products. Pressure has been highlighted and demand has not been significantly increased. It is expected that the medium-term market will still need to pay attention to the progress of new MTO devices.