I. Trend of Rare Earth Market

As of July 12, the weekend price of Pr-Nd oxides was 32500 yuan/ton, the price trend dropped 4.44% and increased 2.71% year-on-year; the domestic reference quotation of dysprosium-iron alloys was 19200 yuan/ton, the price trend declined 1.29% and increased 62.71% year-on-year; and the domestic reference quotation of Pr-Nd alloys was 41.44%. 5,000 yuan per ton, the price trend fell by 4.60%, 3.82% year on year; the mainstream price of praseodymium oxide was 405,000 yuan per ton, the price trend was temporarily stable, down 1.22% year on year; the mainstream price of dysprosium oxide was 192,000 yuan per ton, the price trend was down 1.29%, up 66.23% year on year; the price of neodymium oxide was 324,500 yuan per ton, and the price trend was down. 4.42%, down 0.15% year on year; neodymium quotation is 41500 yuan/ton, price trend is 4.60%, flat year on year; praseodymium ex-factory quotation is 710000 yuan/ton, price trend is temporarily stable, up 7.58% year on year; dysprosium ex-factory mainstream quotation is 24000 yuan/ton, price trend is temporarily stable, up 47.69% year on year.

II. Rare Earth Price Index

On July 12, the rare earth index was 386 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 61.40% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 42.44% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

III. Market Analysis

Recently, the prices of some products in the rare earth market have declined. Most commodity prices in the rare earth market have been stable. However, the prices of some products in the rare earth market have fallen recently. The prices of dysprosium and terbium metals have fallen. Recently, the prices of praseodymium and neodymium series products have declined. The supply in the rare earth market is normal, and the prices of light rare earths have declined recently. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups on the market are reluctant to sell. The market trend of rare earth is poor. However, major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has declined.

IV. Future Prospects

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar restricts exports and reduces supply, but rare earth market transactions are limited in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to fall.