Price Trend

Lead market continued to rise this week (08.05-08.09). The average domestic market price was 16237.50 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 16700 yuan per ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.85%.

On August 9, the lead commodity index was 101.64, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 24.15% from the peak of 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 36.19% from the low of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the domestic spot lead market as a whole rose, with a cumulative increase of about 400 yuan/ton, mainly driven by the futures market. This week, Lun lead and Shanghai lead rebounded at the bottom, showing a good trend, Lun lead rose more, and Shanghai lead followed. Up to Friday, the mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai was maintained at about 16700-16900 yuan/ton. The market brand lead was concentrated in Jinsha lead in Shanghai, Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Minshan, Guangdong Nanhua lead, and Henan Yuguang. In terms of start-up, environmental protection in many places was strictly checked. Most factories in Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other places stopped or reduced production. Most of them are purchased on demand. The price of downstream batteries keeps rising, and the market gradually enters the peak season. In terms of lifting and discounting, the spot lifting range of this week is narrower than last week, with a set of Yunxi lifting range of 800-1200 yuan/ton, an ordinary cloud lifting range of 500-1000 yuan/ton and a small-brand lifting range of 200-500 yuan/ton.

Domestic events:

Nine departments of Sichuan Province jointly launched a special campaign on pollution prevention and control of waste lead-acid batteries: Recently, according to the requirements of the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of nine ministries and commissions (bureaus) on the issuance of the “Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries” (Solid State Environmental Protection Office No. 3, 2019), Sichuan Provincial Department of Ecological Environment, Development and Reform Commission The Nine Departments of the Council of Commissioners, the Department of Economy and Information, the Public Security Department, the Judicial Department, the Finance Department, the Transportation Department, the Provincial Taxation Administration, the Provincial Market Supervision and Administration, and the Commerce Department jointly issued the Action Plan for Preventing and Controlling the Pollution of Waste Lead Batteries in Sichuan Province. It is clear that by the end of 2020, the province will basically realize the standardized collection of waste lead Full coverage will be achieved in key counties (districts and municipalities) of the collection network, and the standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach more than 40%. By 2025, the standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach more than 70%, and the safe utilization and disposal of waste lead-acid batteries collected will be standardized.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the performance of basic metals first restrained and then increased. The offshore renminbi “unexpectedly” broke seven, while the US Treasury Department classified China as a currency manipulator. China-US relations deteriorated further. Subjects such as stock markets and bonds in the global financial system suffered a systematic slump. Gold continued to soar. Commodities fell sharply at the beginning of the week. Then, when the US dollar fell, the market panicked. Emotions gradually recovered, commodities showed a low rebound, repair the upward trend, most of the weekend recovered some of the early week’s decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week’s economic data in Europe and the United States are still relatively concentrated, and worries in the macro environment are not recovering. This week’s low rebound has lifted most metals out of the trough. However, the sustained rebound still needs the promotion of each metal’s own fundamentals and the degree of favor of funds. We should be alert to the gradual withdrawal of large-scale capital into the market in the next week. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels next week, but it is not ruled out that the high may fall.