Price Trend

According to the number. This week, the average price of urea mainstream manufacturers increased from 1818.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1828.33 yuan/ton on August 21, up 10 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. After two days, the price fell to 1818.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 7.49% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose first and then fell this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.57 on August 23.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1755 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quotation first rose from 1780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1810 yuan/ton on August 21, up by 30 yuan/ton, the price persisted two days later fell to 1800 yuan/ton at the weekend, overall, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation increased by 20 yuan/ton; Minghua Chemical Weekend quotation 1900 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 20 yuan / ton, to the price 10 days ago. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by previous environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: The upstream products have risen on the whole, but the increase is not significant. The price of natural gas has risen from 3003.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3090.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.89%, but a decrease of 16.96% compared with the previous year. The price of liquid ammonia has risen from 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.31%, an increase of 1.44% compared with the previous year. Urea cost support is strong, downstream purchasing capacity of melamine is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness is greatly reduced. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up costs are gradually increasing, which makes the price of urea market difficult to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late August.