Price data

This week (9.2-9.6) the price of petroleum coke fell sharply. According to the data of business associations, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1 232.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 1 242.20 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 9.40 yuan/ton in the week and down 0.76%.

On September 6, the petroleum coke commodity index was 96.62, up 0.32 points from yesterday, down 37.90% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 44.45% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke shipments are stable this week, prices remain stable as a whole, and stocks remain low and medium.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was $55.10 per barrel at the beginning of the week, and $56.30 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 2.18%; Brent crude oil was $60.43 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $60.95 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 0.86%. Tension of international trade relations, U.S. crude oil production and stock boost affect the trend of international crude oil. Downstream: In the pre-festival stock-up stage of carbon enterprises in September, they basically received the goods according to plan. The delivery of calcined coke was basically stable this week. The electrolytic aluminium market had no obvious favorable support, and most of them purchased on demand. According to business association data, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of September 6 was 14413.33 yuan per ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35 th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 9 kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.56%), methanol (4.81%) and MTBE (4.43%). There are five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio. The first three products falling are coke (-3.74%), coking coal (-1.36%) and liquefied gas (-0.63%). This week’s average rise and fall was 1.05%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of business associations predict that the market price of petroleum coke has risen slightly this week. At present, refinery stocks are low. Carbon enterprises basically take delivery according to plan. The market of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminium has no obvious favorable support. Most of them are purchased on demand. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will be stable next week. Some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, and the price range is about 1200-1300 yuan/ton.