I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 began to improve this month, and the situation of price falling again and again improved. On October 31, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 14166.67 yuan / ton, 14333.33 yuan / ton compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (08), down 1.16% in the month, down 23.42% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: R22 market of refrigerant market began to improve in October, mainly due to the limited quota of manufacturers and the decline of overall operating rate of the industry, which led to the rise of prices. The overall trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline, and the delivery situation of on-site manufacturers was still not improved. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintained a high operating rate, the domestic spot supply was sufficient, some manufacturers continued to reduce the factory price, and the cost was negative in the face of refrigerant. Near the end of the month, R22 production and domestic sales quotas are tightening, some manufacturers have maintenance plans, market supply is further reduced, small packaging is in short supply, and some businesses are out of stock, so quotation is suspended. According to the data monitoring of Yishe, as of October 31, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang technology is 13500 yuan / ton, and that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, with the price concentrated around 12500 yuan / ton – 16500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, the operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the situation of goods in hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the market price keeps falling. The domestic trichloromethane market of upstream products continues to maintain a low level. At present, the trichloromethane market is in the traditional off-season and the price remains low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are two kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%) There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%) This week’s average was – 0.61%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, R22 manufacturers are affected by quota restrictions, and some manufacturers’ maintenance plans. The market supply is reduced, and traders’ enthusiasm for hoarding is increased. R22 quotation shows a stable upward trend, and it is expected that the refrigerant R22 market will be stronger in the short term.