I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1756.67 yuan / ton, down 16.90% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market this week was temporarily stable, with the urea commodity index at 81.71 on November 8.

II. Market analysis

Product: the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the shutdown and maintenance of the urea equipment in Mingshui chemical industry is expected to reach 15.

Market demand: in recent years, some enterprises have reduced production and overhaul, and the domestic urea enterprises have seen a significant decline in starting work. At present, the operating rate is about 60%, and the daily output is about 120000 tons, the lowest level since 2019. In terms of demand, domestic demand is weak and hard to change. At present, there is no strong support in the domestic market. It is expected that the weak operation of the domestic urea market will prevail before the bid opening in India.

Industry chain: upstream products fell: natural gas prices fell, and the quotation dropped from 4366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4126.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.50%, down 3.81% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly this week, from 3236.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3216.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.62%, down 3.31% year-on-year. Overall, the urea cost support this week is weak 。 However, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 6100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.64%. The general purchasing capacity in the downstream had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of downstream compound fertilizer production has a negative impact on urea.

III. future forecast

In the middle of November, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the operating rate picked up, and the production capacity rose. Urea analysts of business association believe that the demand for agriculture in Shandong Province has declined, which is weak and hard to change. In addition to the low starting level of compound fertilizer enterprises, the industrial demand has also declined. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will be dominated by low consolidation in the middle of November.