I. price trend

This week’s lead market (11.11-11.15) was slightly lower. The average price in the domestic market was 16125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15825 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.86%.

On November 15, the lead commodity index was 96.31, up 0.11 points from yesterday, down 28.13% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 29.05% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: from Nov. 11 to Nov. 15, the price of Lunzhou lead fell all the way, and it was below the average. This week, Lund’s lead inventory has been reduced by 2900 tons. In terms of Shanghai lead, 1912, the main force of Shanghai lead, was converted into 2001 contract this week. The mainstream price fluctuated between 15660-16100. During this period, it continued to decline after falling below the key position of 16000. At one time, it fell to the vicinity of 15700. Although it tried to rush to a high of 16100, it lacked the support of good news. In the spot market, the mainstream price of spot lead this week was 15750-16150 yuan / ton, which was dragged down by the futures market, and the spot market continued to decline. The market turnover situation was better than last week, but the refinery’s enthusiasm for shipment was not high, and the discount was narrowed. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead general brands had a discount of 10 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton for the 1912 contract. Market brands of lead are concentrated in Shanghai Jinsha, Nanfang lead, Henan Yuguang, wanyang, Jinli, etc., and most of them are long single transactions. This week, the market performance of recycled lead was strong, and the price difference with spot lead was further reduced to about 300 yuan / ton. Downstream battery enterprises still mainly purchase recycled lead, but most of them have purchased on demand.

Major domestic events:

A large number of waste lead-acid batteries have entered the black market with huge environmental pollution problems: the official website of the Ministry of industry and information technology released the guide for construction and operation of new energy vehicle power battery recycling service outlets (hereinafter referred to as the “guide”) on July 7. The guide clearly requires that new energy vehicle manufacturers should establish collection type recycling service outlets in the administrative areas (at least prefecture level) where new energy vehicles are sold.

Quanzhou will build a waste lead-acid battery collection and transfer project, which will recycle 50000 tons of waste batteries every year. Recently, Quanzhou ecological environment bureau announced the EIA report form of the battery centralized collection and transfer technical transformation project of Quanzhou Kaiying power appliance Co., Ltd., which will be published until November 20, 2019. At the beginning of the plant’s construction in September 2000, Kaiying company had a production scale of 4 million small plates. In 2005, it completed the technical transformation project of 4 million small plates to 4 million large plates. In June 2012, it completed the operation of the battery assembly line. In 2014, after the lead workshop was rebuilt and expanded in different places, the new and old plant areas of Kaiying company were managed independently, and the environmental protection facilities were operated independently.

Nonferrous Industry: this week’s data in Europe and the United States was lower than expected, the U.S. dollar index was high and volatile, and basic metals fell across the board under the pressure of short return.

III. future prospects

Next week, the US data is expected to be moderate, and the US dollar is expected to fall back at a high level. The domestic metal market will attract long-term delivery of spot goods. Under the condition of loose capital, support for base metal repair fell sharply this week, and some metal items that can be supported by the fundamentals are expected to recover. The spot lead market is expected to fluctuate in the 15700-16000 range next week.