I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week was stable. In the week, the average market price in East China was 1713.33 yuan / ton by the end of the week, down 26.67 yuan / ton, or 0.96%, compared with the weekend price last year, down 19.31% year-on-year. On November 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 87.86, the same as yesterday, down 25.45% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.13% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic soda price has remained stable as a whole this week, the market continues to be weak and downward, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream of light soda is purchased on demand, flexible trading, at present, the mainstream factory price of domestic light soda is 1450-1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream terminal price of domestic heavy soda is 1800-1900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. The heavy alkali market is mainly consolidated, the focus of market transaction is smooth operation, there is no obvious price adjustment for the quoted enterprises, the delivery situation of the manufacturers is acceptable, the delivery pressure of the soda ash manufacturers increases, and the manufacturers mostly implement the end of month pricing.

In terms of supply: domestic soda market is oversupplied, market trading atmosphere is cold, traders are cautious, and actual trading is deadlocked. The starting load of Dalian Dahua plant will gradually increase, and the output will gradually increase in the later period, and some areas will be affected; the unit starting rate of the enterprise will reach about 84% in the week, and the maintenance enterprise will not have a substantial impact on the production capacity. In addition, the northwest region will be affected by the weather, which will bring a lot of inconvenience to the traffic in the snow season, and the freight will be increased, which will be unfavorable to the soda enterprise’s shipment; on the other hand, pure There is no pressure from environmental protection policies in alkali enterprises, which leads to the continuous increase of enterprise inventory. Therefore, the stock pressure of the manufacturers is still there, and the traders hold the wait-and-see state, so the soda ash market as a whole is not optimistic.

Demand: limited by environmental protection factors, the demand for light soda ash from terminal products is weak, and there is no incremental demand or improvement for heavy soda affected by stable production of glass. The market of glass enterprises is not optimistic, the downstream just needs to pick up goods, and the industry procurement is stable, so it is difficult to make a breakthrough. Under the influence of environmental protection, the starting load of downstream enterprises tends to be weak and stable.

III. future forecast

Analysts of soda ash business association believe that: the demand in the downstream of soda ash is limited, the market is not optimistic, and under the influence of cost pressure, the market oversupply reduces the price. On the other hand, the downstream maintains a rigid demand for replenishment, with a stalemate wait-and-see focus. At present, the manufacturer has a lot of inventory, a lot of shipping pressure and imbalance between supply and demand. In the short term, it is difficult to improve the downstream demand. The market trend is under pressure. It is expected that the market situation of soda ash will remain weak in the short term, depending on the inventory situation and the downstream market demand.