I. price trend

This week, the propane market is generally stable, with individual manufacturers mainly adjusting to their own conditions. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4062.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4057.5 yuan / ton, down 0.12% in the week, down 9.08% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is fair. As of November 29, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4040 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4050 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4180 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4150 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4030 yuan / ton.

Propane rose and fell in different ways this week, with the market generally stable, and manufacturers mainly made minor adjustments based on their own shipping situation. In the early part of the week, the international crude oil rose slightly and the cost of imported gas landed rose slightly. In addition, the civil gas market rose strongly, supporting the refinery mentality, and the price remained stable. This week, the weather is cooling down, and the market just needs to consume more. The news is beneficial to the multi industry mentality, which plays a certain role in supporting the propane Market. In addition, CP price was released in December at the end of the month, and propane butane increased by 10 USD / ton, which is good for the market. Individual manufacturers pushed up slightly. Downstream rigid demand entered the market to replenish goods, and the market transaction atmosphere was OK.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

According to propane analysts of business agency, CP price rose slightly in December, which is good for market mentality, and civil gas trend is strong and up, which supports the market. At present, seasonal factors have a strong impact, the weather is gradually cold, there is just a need for replenishment demand in the downstream, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and it is expected that next week’s trend may be upward.