I. price trend

Caprolactam has continued to decline since the beginning of winter, with a 15.08% drop now, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On December 2, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11066 yuan / ton, and on December 6, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10700 yuan / ton. This week, the price dropped 3.31%. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on December 6 is 53.82, which is flat with yesterday, 46.18% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 0.64% higher than the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic caprolactam continued to decline this week due to weak terminal demand. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10300 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shanxi yangcoal is 10600 yuan / ton. The 200000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11200 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industry chain: the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak, the confidence in the industry is insufficient, the terminal procurement is cautious, and the market is down. At present, trading is cold and weak in the short term. Domestic pure benzene market, East China pure benzene market remains firm, import market negotiation goes up, domestic trade negotiation reference 5400-5450 yuan / ton, far month goods negotiation is 5200-5350 yuan / ton, on-site wait-and-see increase, external price increase does not produce effective boost, downstream weak support is insufficient. Domestic PA6 spot price this week is temporarily stable. The spot source supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient. At present, the domestic PA6 production and trade e-commerce companies offer low-level operation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business club think: the upstream raw material cost pressure is still on, the downstream slice market atmosphere is cold, the production and sales are flat, and the demand side has not changed. Although the equipment maintenance enterprises have been restarted one after another, there is still resistance. It is expected that the decline of caprolactam will gradually slow down in the later period, with low consolidation as the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to raw material market and terminal demand.