1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is temporarily stable this week, with a quotation of 1700.00 yuan / ton, down 14.40% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market this week was temporarily stable, with the urea commodity index at 79.07 on December 20.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong have risen and fallen. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1680 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1730 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: at present, the domestic market has a general trading atmosphere, the manufacturer continues to ship orders in advance, and the sales pressure is relatively small. The demand is light, the agricultural dealers still wait and see the majority, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have low enthusiasm for replenishment, and the rubber plate factory starts at a low level. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable and weak. Next, we may focus on the bidding situation in India.

Industry chain: upstream products as a whole seem to have declined slightly: the price of natural gas has declined slightly, from 4213.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4150.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.50%, compared with the same period of last year, down 22.67%; the price of liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3256.67 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the same period of last year, overall, the urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 6000.00 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of the downstream rubber plate plant has a negative impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. According to urea analysts of business association, at present, some manufacturers throw in advance orders, so the sales pressure of manufacturers is relatively small; however, the demand is still weak. In addition to the low starting level of rubber plate manufacturers, the industrial demand has also declined, and the amount of agricultural fertilizer preparation is not large. At present, the domestic market does not have a greater positive support. It is expected that the short-term market will be consolidated at a low level.