1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA66 in 2019 is different from that in 2018. This year, the weak spot price of PA66 fell. The imbalance between supply and demand is the main color of domestic PA66 market in 2019. As of December 25, the average price of PA66′s mainstream offers was about 23050.00 yuan / ton, down 36.24% from the beginning of the year.

Analysis of influencing factors:

At the beginning of the year, Ineos, a European Petrochemical producer, declared Force Majeure for its acrylonitrile plants. The company announced that the ACN supply of its plant in green lake, Texas, encountered force majeure, with a capacity of 545000 tons / year. Previously, the company also announced that the supply of ACN at its plant in hill Sanders, UK, suffered force majeure, with a capacity of 280000 tons / year. In addition, Taiwan Formosa Plastics and Thailand PTT Asahi chemical also have their own maintenance plans in spring. This led to an increase in the spot price of acrylonitrile at that time. Affected by the rising cost side, it is generally considered that the good is the support. However, all this happened in the environment of weak demand for PA66, which further reduced the profits of the chip factory by adding the cost side pressure to the already difficult PA66.

After the adipic acid festival in the upstream, the downstream returned to work at a peak, the demand improved, and the offer picked up. However, in the first half of the year, the supply continued to be abundant. Although the cost of pure benzene rose intermittently, the overall performance of the market was weak and negative. The stock pressure is general, the on-site operators have a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and they need more space for negotiation. In the first half of this year, the main theme of the imbalance between supply and demand of PA66 slices remained unchanged, and the downstream factories continued to be weak in taking goods. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, the traders go with the market, and the trading is difficult. Most of the year’s decline was completed in the first half of the year, and the domestic brand PA66 fell nearly 23.96% in the first half of the year.

At the end of August and the beginning of September, Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission released the notice on adjusting the key projects in 2019, mainly involving the adjustment of key projects in and out. One million ton PC polycarbonate project of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was withdrawn, and the 200000 ton nylon 66 new material project of Tianchen Qixiang announced on July 25 was added. This year, Tianchen Qi Xiang is the industrial technology giant who broke the monopoly of PA66 raw materials and founded the first adiponitrile project in Zibo. After the completion of Tianchen Qixiang’s industrial base, it will break the technology monopoly of foreign countries, end the blank of domestic technology industry and the history that adiponitrile relies on import and its pricing is controlled by people. However, this good news makes PA66 practitioners feel complicated. The shift of Shandong key projects to nylon 66 means that PA66′s production capacity continues to expand. Now, the technical barriers of adiponitrile have been solved, and the cost of PA66 will be gradually reduced in the future. It is expected to be a long-term impact on China’s PA66 market. Under the background of the imbalance of supply and demand, the market trend is difficult.

The following traditional peak season “golden nine silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. The spot supply of PA66 market continued to be abundant, and the downstream factories just needed to take the goods, but the demand did not improve and continued to be weak. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, and the trading is more flexible and detailed. In the middle of the third quarter, the US tariff delayed to release the good news, the terminal market temperature in the peak season was good, the periodic price recovery of adipic acid market surged, all of which were overshadowed by the imbalance of supply and demand, and the overall impact on PA66 market was limited. Combined with the decline of PA66 this year, it is felt that the long-term trend of increasing competition in the industry.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the market of PA66 in 2019 is weak and stable after falling. The reason is that this year’s macroeconomic situation is really not good, and the downward pressure on the economy is obvious. The trade friction between China and the United States has a great impact on the trading atmosphere of the commodity market. But the main reason is that the business club believes that the price of PA66 market experienced a sharp rise last year, and the cost end of downstream factories was under too much pressure, which led to a significant reduction in the whole downstream demand this year, as well as in the engineering plastics field, spinning field, ties and other fields. In addition, adipic acid has limited support on the cost side. The intermediate hexanedionitrile broke the monopoly, and the capacity expansion was negative on the cost side of PA66. Multiple factors have led to oversupply in the overall market since this year, presenting a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The market is short of buying gas, and the industry tends to wait and see. At present, the cost pressure of domestic polymerization plants is still large, and the situation is relatively difficult. Its impact is likely to cause PA66′s mid – and long-term market to improve.